42% cash

16% stock

Many people are struggling with regards to income these days. Perhaps, you did not get a bonus or a raise this year, perhaps you even got a pay cut or maybe you even got laid off. Either way, your income might not be where you wish it were right now. Combine that with holiday shopping and other expenses and you might have blown through some of your savings; that is, if you are in the minority and actually had savings to blow through. No matter what your scenario is, I’m going to explain three ways to re-build your savings that I am currently implementing in my life. Hopefully, these methods will help you as well.

Get Serious About Your Budget

The most important thing you can do to re-build your savings is to get serious about your budget. If you don’t have a budget, make one. Then, stick to it no matter what.

It’s time to cut out some expenses. I guarantee you that there are things you can part with. As for me, I recently cancelled my wife and I’s gym memberships. I will be working out in my garage and running around my neighborhood to stay in shape. Also, I cut all the premium movie channels from my DirecTV package. The combination of both of these is over $100 a month.

Another interesting way I am considering to cut some expenses is cashing in my wife’s Whole Life Insurance policy and moving to some term life insurance. The premiums are drastically cheaper and we can keep the same level or higher of coverage on her.

Our plan is to always live on 80% of our income. We save 10% and tithe 10% each month. The next step will talk about how we aim to stick to this goal, even with less income than we have been used to.

Going All Cash

With a baby only weeks away, my wife is quitting work. This means we are only on one income. In order to ensure that we stick to a predefined budget, we are going to go all cash for a few months. We have found that it is very difficult to stick to our budget while using credit cards for all of our expenses. We never carry a balance, but by using plastic, the money doesn’t seem real.

Going from two incomes to one is a huge adjustment which calls for huge measures. Divvying up cash at the start of each month for various categories of expenses will help us realize how much money we are spending and have left for our expenses.

Going all cash will allow us to ensure that we stick to our predefined budget. With only one income from here on out, this is more important than ever.

Supercharge Your 401(k)

There is no better time than now to kick up your 401(k) contributions to as high as you can stand. First off, stock prices are significantly cheaper than they were a year ago meaning the money you put into your 401(k) will buy many more shares of the stocks or funds that they are buying. This is fantastic for long term growth (20, 30 years).

Second, your 401(k) is pretax contribution meaning the more you save, the less you are taxed. There is no better time to take advantage of this. Combine your 401(k) strategy with a strict budget strategy similar to the above two steps and you can put away significant amounts of money towards your future.

The compounding potential of money put away in your 20s is absolutely insane. Do it.

I wonder how many people believed we already hit rock bottom in crude last week at 35. we're probably heading towards even WORSE volatility in the next 2 weeks as the VIX starts climbing back up. It'd probably be a good idea to sell some calls after a gap up on USO and I already have an order to short crude e-mini futures at the 50% retracement of todays unbelievable 12.25 meteor drop today...

...but If this is a shake out - this is THE BEST shake out i've ever seen in my life.

and this time I'm scaling in with microscopic positions with this kind of volatility.

Related Stocks:  DXO, OIL, SCO, USO

A second camp holds that if the first five trading days of a given year are positive, the remainder of that year will be positive as well. For these investors, the entire year is riding on tomorrow. 

                It may seem absurd to base a full year on five days, but of the last 36 times the first five days of the year were positive, full year gains occurred 31 times-an 86% accuracy ratio. As of Wednesday's close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) was 7 points lower for the year.  All we need is a positive close Thursday and 2009 could be a good year for investors.

                If Thursday's results indicate that we will finish 2009 profitably, is now the time to buy? Probably not.

Even though countless amounts of time, effort, and money are used to explain daily market movements and what they mean for investors, most price changes offer little predictive value. However, key inflection points occasionally have a profound impact. We are on the cusp of such an event.

                Since bottoming in late November, markets have rebounded sharply. Is this a bear market rally, or the start of a new bull market? Answer this question successfully and great gains will come your way.  Knowing that more money is lost on false bear market rallies than the initial price decline, we must be cautious and resist the temptation to chase each rally. However, if you miss too much of an initial move, your performance will suffer. 

                Looking at the long decline of this market, stock prices have turned lower as they reached a persistent downtrend. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ are now approaching this resistance level. Will the rally stall as it has before, or finally break higher? A close above 965 on the S&P 500 and 1,700 on the NASDAQ would be extremely bullish events that indicate the primary trend is turning bullish. With current prices only 6% from these levels, our answer should be delivered soon.

                The most prudent investment stance is to watch these price points closely before allocating capital. If the market closes above those prices on decisive volume, it would be an indication that the lows are in place and now is the time to buy stocks. Failure to overtake resistance will increase the chance that the lows will be retested. 

                Mostly likely, this rally will fail and new lows await us in the future. Looking at a series of sentiment indicators, the market is overbought. When stocks bottomed in November, my timing model was 100% short-an extreme oversold condition. (My model is neutral when it is between 40 and 60% long. Any reading above 80% in either direction is considered overbought/oversold.) Now it is 70% long. In November, my research universe showed over 60 stocks trading below fair value. Now fewer than 20 stocks are below fair value, and most of them are cheap for a reason. Despite traders openly speaking about the need for prudence, the most speculative stocks have rallied the most in 2009. This trend indicates the desire to take risk. More people are investing out of fear they will miss a market rally, rather than showing concern over protecting their capital. 

             An overbought, speculative market approaching a long-standing downtrend is the perfect recipe for a failed rally. Therefore, it offers aggressive traders an opportunity to get short of this market. By using a 3% move higher as your stop loss, you can reduce the pain of prices moving against you. However, if this rally falters as I expect, great gains will come your way.

A fellow I know launched YPBLOGS.com recently. It is a blog aggregator of many fantastic young professional blogs, including 20smoney.com.

If you are looking for a way to quickly browse headlines of blog posts from a great number of blogs, I definitely recommend you checking out YPBLOGS.com.  This can easily help you cut down on the time it takes to visit your favorite blogs.  Check it out!

Oil bears are back! and SPY seems to have a 1 to 1 correlation to oil lately so FINALLY we have some kind of pullback. I took the biggest loss I ever had betting against the SPY way too early and now its finally here and I'm not in it.

Tried to enter a short position in crude by buying SCO but got stopped out at the low of the mid day retracement of 23 unfortunately, now its at 27. Should of took a micro-sized position so even at a 10% loss I wouldn't be fearing a those humongous chops yesterday.

I recovered the tiny losses from that trade by buying the kind of/sort of break out of CAL today over 23. I exited early assuming the worst case scenario of CAL correlating too closely to the SPY today even though I had a tiny position.

Lately I'm way too early to the party and I was way too arrogant with my short SPY trade.

Now in order to go short I'll just wait for confirming signals like ANY sort of meaningful downtick in the McClellan indicator divided by SPX for starters.

What the heck is going on with FXE??? one week its up 10% another week its down 4%, what are our currencies becoming here? penny stocks?

Another set of reasons why I got into this losing streak is because I failed to realize that

1. SPY has been relating to Oil more closely lately and Oil is very hard to trade technically. at least for me. Trends are really stretched out and there are shake outs every single day with big huge volatile ranges.

2. I didn't scale in. Something essential when the VIX is so low. I didn't recognize the fast shakeouts in the SPY were in fact correlated to the shake outs in Oil, which look just like the begining of new pump n dump patterns when Oil tanked before the retracement to 50.50 till yesterday. So I fell for the one thinking that was the top, already positioning too aggressively, then I added more... great.

So I now I have to take less risk, recover losses at a much slower pace than the losses I took and start planning ahead for the next time I feel the arrognace itch and double my exposure like I'm in some "can't possibly lose" bubble again.

I guess only years of exprience will take that mentality away.

Related Stocks:  DTO, DXO, OIL, SCO, USO

It’s time for another contest here at 20smoney.com and I have decided to push one of biggest pieces of investing advice: Investing in Gold.  In order to push this concept, I am going to give away some gold.  You can enter this contest for free and it only takes seconds.  The winner will get $250 of gold!

HOW TO ENTER

Entering the contest is easy.  You can enter the following ways:

1.  RSS Subscribe to 20smoney.com - 2 Entries

If you are already RSS subscribed, let me know, I will check and give you the entries. Click here to subscribe to the RSS feed.

2.  Subscribe to the Email List - 3 Entries

If you are already subscribed to the email list, provide your email address and I will verify. Click here to join the email list.

3.  Write a blog post about this contest (link to this post) - 5 Entries

Send me the link for the post!  The post that refers the most visitors to my site will get a bonus 5 Entries!

4.  Write a guest post for my blog detailing the best investment for 2009 and why - 3 Entries

If you have a blog, please include a link to your blog.  I will select the best few guest posts (based on your reasons why you think it is the best investment) and post them on my blog regardless if the author of the posts wins the contest or not.  Everyone who provides a guest post will get the 3 entries regardless if I pick your post or not.  Must be at least 150 words.

5.  Leave a comment on this post answering the following question: Why do you visit 20smoney.com? - 1 Entry

6.  Perform all contest entry methods and you will get an extra 5 entries!

After you perform the various entry methods, email Kevin (at) 20smoney.com detailing your entries (I will verify entries, if you say you did something that you didn’t, you will be disqualified).  Include your first name and city you are from.

THE PRIZE: $250 IN GOLD

As I mentioned above, I believe in investing in gold, especially given the recent actions of the U.S. government (and governments around the globe).  Gold has been money for thousands of years and it will never go to zero (unlike fiat currencies).

To encourage this investment, I am giving away $250 worth of gold.  Am I sending you a physical chunk of gold worth that much money?  No.  I am going to provide you an account in GoldMoney.com with a value of $250 USD.  Read below for more information on GoldMoney.com.

ABOUT GOLDMONEY.COM

GoldMoney provides thousands of customers with a useful, secure and affordable way to buy and hold gold and silver. In addition, GoldMoney’s patented payment system modernizes gold’s oldest, most valuable feature: its use as money.

GoldMoney allows you to deposit money and buy silver and gold using that money.  Your account value is kept in the value of whatever metal you purchase.  For example, your account value will be 200 goldgrams.  The dollar value of that depends on whatever the current price of gold is in dollars.  This means that your money in your GoldMoney account will not be affected by inflation.

Also, GoldMoney allows you to make online purchases in gold.  Their patented system allows you to purchase goods online through gold.  If fiat currencies continue to decline and even fail, I predict you will see many individuals and institutions begin to use this system.  There is no system like it when it comes to using gold to buy goods.

AN ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITY

For all participants in the contest, if you do not win the account worth $250, you will have an opportunity to get a special offer if you wish to pursue investing in gold.  This offer will be revealed at the end of the contest only to those who participate.

Related Stocks:  FEED

Certain investors believe that if you were willing to buy the stock at a higher level, why not buy more now.  Others feel that all investments should be closed after an adverse move and that you should never add to a losing trade.  Where do I fall in this argument?  Somewhere in the middle.

                If you believe in the quality and value of your research, averaging down into a losing trade makes perfect sense.  However, the dangers are obvious.  Some of the legendary investment failures ­-Long Term Capital, Nick Leeson - involved averaging down into losing trades.  Closer to home, anyone who blindly averaged down into Fannie Mae, Lehman Brothers or AIG has seen bad trades turn worse.  With such large risks in averaging down, how do we decide when to cut losses and when to push our luck?

                When a position moves against you, ask yourself three questions to determine your next action:

1. How much faith do I have in the initial analysis?  If you believe the thesis is correct and the market has missed some key factors, stick with the trade.
2. Am I being flexible enough?  Even if you believe you are right, you must process all new data objectively.  If you made a mistake in the initial assessment, it is time to move on.
3. Can I live with a quantified downside? Average down into the trade only if you can survive a worst-case scenario.

               An example of how I have implemented this process in my own investing is my purchase of the Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Treasury Proshares (TBT).  As outlined in my weekly newsletter EPIC Insights, I believe the rush into Treasury bonds has created the next bubble that will burst.  With that thesis in mind, I bought a position in TBT at $43.81.  Two weeks later I had an unrealized loss of 18%, dollar cost averaged into the shares and lowered my cost basis to $40.19.  With the shares trading at $42, I now have a 5% profit as opposed to a slight loss.

              In order to justify the trade, I examined my initial thesis.  I determined that I had honestly processed all relevant information and that may thesis was sound. A Barron's cover story this weekend, "Are Treasury Bonds Safe", echoes my analysis.  When you consider this story occurred nearly a month after I highlighted the trade, subscribers were ahead of the market on this trde.  Most importantly, I was able to quantify a possible 9% downside versus a 50%+ upside potential.  With such an attractive risk/reward scenario, averaging down was prudent.  By staying disciplined and objective, I was able to use a market selloff to turn a losing trade into a winning investment.

Related Stocks:  TBT

I bought PST, the 7-10 year Proshares ultra short ETF on T-bonds, and TBT, the 20+ yr ultra short ETF on T-bonds, as they surged on very heavy volume from short double bottoms set up in the last few weeks. My initial stop on PST is 50.99.   My initial stop on TBT is 35.81.

Related Stocks:  TBT

Related Stocks:  AOB

Related Stocks:  BGU

     A recent example of the S&P effect is Transocean (RIG).  RIG is the largest offshore driller of oil and natural gas in the world.  With a high level of demand, RIG has excellent earnings visibility and a strong backlog of future business.  Typically, the market would pay a premium for high visibility. Last May, the shares were trading above $161 and the premium was evident.  At the current price level of $52, that premium is gone and the shares are now being offered to opportunistic investors.

     Three main problems have combined to knock the share price lower.  The first two are transient.  With the expectation of higher corporate income-tax rates under the Obama administration, RIG decided to redomesticate to Switzerland.  Doing so made them ineligible to remain in the S&P 500.  Forced selling by index funds caused the shares to drop swiftly.

     The second issue concerns the large decline in oil prices.  Since RIG is hired to extract oil from harsh locations, many felt their profitability and backlog would suffer.  I view this outcome as unlikely.  Most of the projects RIG operates are long term in nature and require substantial capital investment.  I find it improbable that an energy producer would curtail an existing project for which it has already allocated capital.  A sustained period of very low energy prices could hurt the shares.  However, that issue is three to five years down the road and should not drastically affect today's stock price.  After all, with a current P/E of 3 and a market capitalization that is 40% of their current backlog, management could use the earnings and cash flow to finance an LBO.

     The third issue is RIG's high debt level.  Long-term debt represents over 45% of its total capitalization.  In an environment where banks are unwilling to lend, a high debt level can be devastating.  However, 80% of RIG's debt is due in 2010 and beyond, and the company has stated its intention to use free cash flow to reduce its debt levels to a more manageable level.  While acknowledging the risk of buying a company with a potentially troubling financing issue, I believe RIG's current valuation offers a reasonable margin of safety.

     Subscribers to my weekly newsletter EPIC Insights, were alerted to the positive fundamentals of RIG and bought these shares Monday morning at a price of $52.39.  On a day where the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped .9%, subscribers have an unrealized profit on RIG of ­3.8%.  While the one-day performance is attractive, I maintain a fair value estimate of $75.  With RIG currently 27% below my price target, I like the risk/reward framework and recommend a long position as this week's fundamental trade.

Related Stocks:  RIG

     A gap occurs when a stock price opens at a level that is much different from the prior day's close.  For example, if shares closed the prior day at $15 and opened today at $20, we would view this is a $5 gap higher.  Once a gap occurs, the prior day's close ($15 in this example) becomes a key level of technical support.  When prices gap higher, the gap becomes support; when prices gap lower, the gap becomes resistance.  Until this new support or resistance level is violated, the underlying trend remains intact and allows us to trade accordingly.

     Examining a chart of Dryships, multiple technical patterns emerge.  As the worldwide recession spread and deepened, shipping rates collapsed - DRYS's price quickly followed.  From a high point of $110.74 in mid-May, the stock traded to a low of $3.54 in late November. This stunning 97% drop over six months created a clear downtrend that was rarely tested.  During this long decent, we saw three gaps lower - from $55 to $50 (9%) in mid-September, from $31.50 to $28 (11%) in early October and from $18 to $15 (17%) in late October.  Each time the stock gapped lower, the gap served as resistance to future rallies. 

     Since bottoming on November 21, we have seen three gaps higher-from $9.50 to $11 (16%) on December 10, from $12.50 to $13.50 (8%) on December 18 and from $10.50 to $11.65 (11%) on January 2.  These levels now serve as support that should allow the stock to trade higher.  Importantly, the last gap higher has broken the long standing downtrend and has allowed DRYS to close at its highest level since bottoming in November.  Combining all the technical signals, we see a reversal in the share price that will allow for a sustained move higher.

     As detailed in my weekly newsletter EPIC Insights, I recommend DRYS as this week's technical trade.  Having experienced a dramatic price decline, DRYS is poised to bounce toward $18 where it will meet its first level of resistance.  I do not expect these shares to ever regain prior all-time highs and many factors make me hesitant to own this position for a long period of time.  However, the technical backdrop and prudent use of stop loss orders make DRYS ideal to rent with the expectation of a quick gain.  Keep your position size modest and use a close below $10.50 as a stop loss.  As we approach resistance at $18, look to harvest gains. 

     I believe quick, opportunistic traders will do well in 2009 and selling into resistance levels is an excellent way to prevent surrendering hard-fought gains.

Related Stocks:  DRYS

ShareThis

2008 is over.  For many, that is a good thing.  It’s time to turn your attention to 2009.  Here are five ways to dominate the coming year.

#1 - Learn To Pick Stocks

2008 killed asset prices across the board, including stocks.  The good news is that stocks are much cheaper than they were when 2008 started.  Macro-economic forces drove down all stocks across the board, even healthy, thriving businesses.  The good news is that as stocks stabilize, there is likely to be a decoupling of individual stock performance vs. macro economic factors.  This means that if you pick winners, you can easily outperform the market.

I firmly believe that the U.S. economy is likely to struggle for years with zero to negative growth.  But, remember, this is namely with regards to the macro picture.  Individual companies can still dominate, make a killing and thrive.  Your job is to pick these companies and have an extraordinary year of stock returns.  Picking the right companies can easily result in a portfolio that gains 50% and up in 2009.  This isn’t easy, but we’re here to help you.

#2 - Get Promoted While Others Are Worried About Keeping Their Jobs

If you have positioned yourself correctly, your job is safe.  You are in your 20s (which means you are relatively cheap to the company) and you have skills that are needed at your company.  Now, is the time to dominate your job like never before and score a promotion amidst a weak economy where others are worried about getting laid off.

With shrinking work forces, there are more opportunities for hard-working, eager employees to take on new, larger responsibilities.  These are opportunities to shine.  Make sure you deliver when you take on higher responsibilities and you are likely to be rewarded.

On a side note, make sure you are always learning new skills at your job.  Your skills will stay with you no matter what happens with your current job.

#3 - Start A Second Income Stream

I’ve hammered this concept through the heads of my readers now for almost all of 2008.  Second income streams provide income diversification, additional cash flow for savings or whatever else you desire and give you entrepreneurial experience.  It is not difficult to start a second income stream with regards to ability or capital requirements.  It is, however, extremely difficult to start a second income stream with regards to determination and time.

Starting a second income requires a major commitment which will mean you have to make trade offs.  Perhaps, you social life will go down a notch.  Perhaps, you need to manage your time better (which leads me to my next point).

#4 - Push Yourself To Manage Your Time Better

This is absolutely huge.  There will be no bigger impact to your entire life in 2009 if you can learn to truly manage your time to maximum effectiveness.  Be more productive during your day job and be more productive at home.

This might mean you cut out several shows from your weekly television watching routine.  One thing that I am attempting to adjust is my sleeping pattern.  Currently, i think I actually oversleep; I sleep about 9 hours a night typically.  My target is to sleep about 7 1/2 hours each night.  This will allow me to get more done in the mornings before work (such as work out, have a devotion, etc.).  If you are single, try staying up an extra hour each night and waking up an hour earlier each morning.  At first, the adjustment might be tough, but I bet you will be surprised how well your body eventually begins to handle your new sleep pattern.

#5 - It’s About Time To Execute Your Big Plans!

It’s New Year Resolutions time.  Each year, the majority of people make big goals and big plans for the new year whether it be working out, finding a new job, or whatever.  The problem is most plans don’t last through January.

You can dominate the new year if you stick to your plan and follow through with its execution.  Whatever your goals and plans are for 2009, make sure they are attainable and have specific steps already detailed for you to reach them.  Also, put a time limit on your goals.  Don’t establish a vague goal with no time limit such as, “I want to be more healthy in 2009.”  That’s stupid.  Change that to, “I want to lose 10 pounds by March 31 and drop my cholestoral level to X”.  Or, “I want to launch a second income stream by February 1st and turn a profit by April 1st.”

Be specific and follow through.

Related Stocks:  VE

1. Work harder and get the grades I am capable of getting in school
2. Work hard to interview and receive an internship
3. Be accepted into this study abroad program for the Spring of 2010
4. Maintain a steady workout regiment and eat healthier (very original)
5. Keep interest in trading/the market
6. Develop a good idea for a business, preferably on the web

I will do my best to succeed in all of these ideas!  Good luck with your own personal goals this year.

This rally to start the year off could provide a nice opportunity to dump some of your positions.  If you have any stocks that are down big, that you are simply holding onto hoping for some appreciation in share price value, I would recommend unloading these positions into this rally.  Keep only your strongest positions or your high dividend yield stocks.

The market started off 2009 with a bang, in my opinion, without any real fundamental reason.  People are optimistic with a new administration that the economy will improve.  I don’t see this happening.  Obama’s administration is looking to government stimuli and higher taxes to try to “jump start” this fundamentally flawed economy.  Again, sell into this rally.  Keep only your strong long term stocks, preferably the ones that pay a nice dividend.

Related Stocks:  TNA

Related Stocks:  DCP

Related Stocks:  SJI

1. SPX divided by NYSE volume is spiking up for the 2nd day now,

which means volume is bearishly low, holidays or not.

2.TICK Divergence + NYSE new highs divided by NYSE showing higher highs

last time that happening was the top in mid August

3. NYSE declining issues divided by NYSE volume has crossed the 15 level

last time that happened was the huge October bounce top and the August top

4. SPX bullish % divided by VIX is at an important resistance level

5. SPY once again is at the dashed resistance trend line ever since October has proven to be an important resistance level to bounce right back down from

6. Even the Nasdaq is at the same situation, right at an important resistance trend line

7.Options market sentiment is very bearish

8.Failure to make higher highs

9. VIX is below an important support level - 40

10.  "Head and Shoulders" pattern emerging but Money Flows do not follow

and why did I choose to short a double-long ETF that follows the SPY?

There's more upside shorting the leveraged ETFs than buying the leveraged short ETFs:

Retracements are far more bearish in SSO than in SDS relative to the SPY

There is a better follow through to the SPY than there is by buying the SDS

HAPPY NEW YEAR

Related Stocks:  SDS, SSO

                Reviewing my market calls for 2008, I consistently predicted key turning points.  In my weekly market commentary, I started 2008 looking for a 10-15% drop in stock prices.  By mid-February, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) had dropped 8% and I increased my market exposure from 30% long to 80% long.  By late April, I was warning that the markets were mispricing risk, putting too much faith in the Federal Reserve (Fed) and walking on shaky ground.  However, I also felt markets would move higher in a set trading range.  From my bullish call in early February until mid-May, the Dow rallied over 8%, making my decision to get long very profitable.  On May 20^th, I warned that if the Dow closed below 12,800 it should be seen as a sign to exit the market.  The following day, the Dow closed at 12,601 and would not see 12,800 for the remainder of the year.  During the summer, I warned of the problems with our economy, predicted sub-par growth for years to come and encouraged investors to eliminate index funds.  While correctly calling an oversold rally in July, I also indicated it was a trading event and encouraged everyone to manage risk and be careful.  By mid-October, the Dow was near 8,500.  I indicated that a rally was probable and provided an opportunity to trade long.  Over the next 14 days the Dow rallied 13%.  Since that point, I have continued to emphasize that the stock market will be in a broad trading range for many years and only astute, active traders stand a chance of generating significant returns in the years ahead. 

                For 2009, I plan to follow a similar forecasting pattern.  I will indentify five key trends to watch for and five events that could prove my predictions incorrect.  On a weekly basis, I will share my investment insights and offer timely comments on the markets' direction.  I hope you will find value in the information I share and will use it to produce significant returns.  

                The five key developments for financial markets in 2009 are as follows:

1. Stock markets will plunge to new lows - I develop forecasts to predict fair value of the S&P 500.  The fair value estimate serves as a price point at which I am being fairly compensated for assuming market risk.  I start 2009 with a fair value target on the S&P 500 of 625.  This equates to approximately 6,000 for the Dow and 1,050 for the NASDAQ.
2. Unemployment exceeds 10% - We are living through a powerful transition in our economy as consumers and business deleverage and begin living within their means.  This painful period will result in over 4 million people losing their jobs and unemployment reaching levels last seen in the early 1980s.
3. The mass retail culture dies - Within five miles of my house, I can buy a television at nearly fifteen different stores.  By the end of 2009, I will buy that television at less than five stores.  As unemployment rises, consumer spending will drop and mass retail outlets will diminish.
4. Treasuries are the next bubble to burst - The Fed has indicated they will do whatever is needed to reflate the economy.  Eventually the printing presses will run so hard that investors shun the low yields of Treasuries and inflation returns.
5. Trending markets allow active traders to outperform - As markets skid to new lows, trading opportunities exist.  A second half rebound based on positive growth in 2010 offers potential for gains.  Those who position within these trends will do well.  Those who buy and hold will not.

To summarize, a poor first half driven by a crumbling economy will finally create a permanent bottom that allows for strong gains in the second half of the year.  Opportunistic traders will do well as they position for strong market trends.  While I am confident these predictions will prove accurate, the following events would derail my forecast and point to positive market returns:

1. Biggest January Effect ever - Going into year end, investors have massive amounts of idle cash and no incentive to buy.  Why show your investors that you own stocks that are down 60-80% this year?  Instead wait until January and then buy the stocks you find cheap.  If this were to occur, we will see a massive rally in the first 3 weeks of the year that could easily drive the market 10-20% higher.
2. Obama outperforms - Most Americans have hope that a new administration will cure our economic ills.  Obama will be given leeway to implement his ideas.  If he executes well, the economy will rebound.
3. Fed removes the punchbowl - After successfully reflating the economy and recapitalizing the banks, the Fed efficiently removes excess cash from the financial system.  Doing so allows inflation to remain low, bonds prices to remain stable and equities to outperform.
4. Mean reversion - Historic data shows stocks outperform other asset classes over long periods.  With the S&P 500 trading at 1997 levels, we are looking at 12 years of stock underperformance.  If the historic relationship holds we should see stocks rally over the coming years.
5. World economy heals - If the stars align, policymakers will avert disaster, unclog credit markets and growth resumes.  In this scenario, all asset classes except US Treasuries would perform very well.

Looking at these lists, we have expected actions and events that could disprove my thesis.  Fortunately, many of my positive surprises, if they were to occur, would happen early in the year.  This will allow us to quickly decide if my bearish view shall hold or if 2009 will be a pleasant surprise.  As always, I will be watching the markets and provide weekly updates as facts change.  Happy New Year!

It’s been one heck of a ride since we launched back in April 2008.  We’ve had some successes and some failures and have learned so much about blogging, business, investing and more.  This post is my summary of the 2008 with regards to this blog and with regards to my business activity overall.  I’m being open about my traffic, my income and more in an attempt that the information will help you with your ventures.

Also, I’m going to give a status update on some of my other business and investment activity.

Blog Traffic

Since we launched back in April, the traffic grew steadily as I worked on the blog.  As 2008 comes to a close, we just crossed the 100,000 mark in hits (according to Wordpress.com stats).  It took 286 days to reach my first 100,000 hits. Let’s see how many days it takes to reach 200,000 (hopefully less than 286).

According to Google Analytics, 20smoney.com had the following traffic statistics:

The numbers between Analytics and Wordpress.com Statistics are fairly close. I guess you could take the average to come up with a single number.

Take a look at the image to the right to see where my traffic came from.  Referring sites made up almost 60% of my traffic.  The sites/services that referred traffic to me are made up of StumbleUpon, Yahoo! Finance message boards and other blogs.

Most Popular Posts At 20smoney.com

1. The Ten Point Checklist For Buying Stocks (10,771 hits)
2. Should Government Takeover Your 401(k)? (9,630 hits)
3. I’m In A Good Position Financially, What Can I Do To Take My Personal Finances To The Next Level? (2,646 hits)
4. How Can You Make $100,000 Worth More Than $200,000? (1,997 hits)
5. The 20s Money Retirement Plan (1,813 hits)

It’s interesting to see the hits of the top two posts and that their numbers are significantly higher from the next most popular post.  A big reason for this is that these top two posts took off big time on StumbleUpon and massive amounts of traffic were sent to these posts.

According to Google Analytics, StumbleUpon sent over 16,000 visitors to my site.  Of them, 96.43% of these visitors were new visitors.  The bounce rate for this segment of my traffic was 70.86% (about what I’d expect for StumbleUpon).

Since launching In April of 2008, I published 241 posts on this website; that comes out to about 5.8 posts per week.  I would imagine in 2009, I will publish less frequently while ensuring the quality of each post is extremely high.  I’m aiming for 3-4 a week for this coming year.

Income From 20smoney.com

I have experimented with several forms of monetization techniques for this blog in my goal to reach $500 in monthly income.  I have reached this goal three times this year since April and two of the last three.  Hopefully, this level will be sustainable on a monthly basis in the near future.

Here is the breakdown of where my income came from:

• Google Adsense: $218.25
• Kontera In-Text Advertising: $77.37
• Private Advertisements and Other Text Link Ads: $1,447.40
• Affiliate Sales: $371.99
• Other Revenue: $49.41
• Total Income Since April 17, 2008: $2,164.40

Definitely one of the first things I learned when I began blogging, and more importantly, tried making money from blogging, is that Google Adsense was not going to be my main source of income.

With regards to Adsense, I’m still playing with different ad formats and types trying to maximize the revenue.  I’ll admit, I’m a little frustrated sometimes because I haven’t really made a ton of progress on that front.  Some months are good, some are not.  Doesn’t seem to be a pattern really.

Private advertisements have really taken off in recent months fueling most of my income growth.  It’s been great to see how people will actually contact you and ask to pay you to put an ad on your site.  God bless the internet.

Other Aspects Of My Entrepreneurial Journey

Attempting to capitalize on my blogging momentum, I tried launching a couple other blogs this year (smallblogging.com, 20spolitics.com).  I quickly realized after doing so that I was spreading myself too thin.  With a career that I’m working hard at, a part-time hobby in 20smoney.com, and my personal life, it was near impossible to keep up with a couple additional blogs.  Plus, I wasn’t fully committed to growing the reader base, so they struggled to get off the ground.  The result: Focusing on a single blog: 20smoney.com.

In a different area of my business life, I have made significant progress in my career.  I’m in a sales position for a hospitality company.  Also, because of my background in software, I have been developing an internal system for the past year plus here at my company.  The results have been great and I am making significant progress towards selling this software to other companies.  I feel that I have learned that I’m an entrepreneur first, a software developer second, and a salesman third (and I had a successful year with regards to sales).

2008 was an exciting year for me, my business pursuits and my family.  I imagine 2009 will be even more so as my first child will be born in the coming weeks, my career will likely take some interesting steps forward and hopefully, my blog will continue to grow.

Investing - The Past Year and Looking Forward

Overall, I had a decent year with regards to investing.  I am down on the year but only about 15-20% as opposed to the markets down close to 40%.  I’m working on compiling some exact numbers to detail my investment activity, but it has been a little screwy since I changed brokerages this year and frankly, I have a lot of stuff on my plate at the moment.

I did well in the first half of the year with Chesapeake Energy (CHK) as I sold out my position as it climbed higher and higher peaking at around $74 a share.  I lost some of that profit as I bought back into CHK too early (40’s and 50’s).  As energy collapsed, the losses mounted.  Lesson learned: don’t underestimate the severity of a correction after a certain industry or sector goes parabolically higher, as natural gas and energy did in the first half of 2008.

I also did well with some short trades this year.  I shorted various sectors using ETFs such as SKF (UltraShort Financial ETF), SDS (S&P short), and even the retail ETF (XLY).  Currently, I hold no short positions going into 2009.

In the last few weeks, I have scored huge in my gold stocks.  Near the start of December, I began shifting a great deal of my portfolio into gold and gold related stocks.  Quickly afterwards, these stocks starting going higher as the short term rally in the dollar faded.

My thoughts for 2009: gold and high dividend foreign stocks.  I think that we could see a gold bubble at some point with gold skyrocketing to $2,000 an ounce or even higher.  Gold stocks could go up 3, 4, 5 even 10 times if a real bubble forms.  Currently, I have positions in AUY, GDX, GLD.

With regards to foreign stocks, I’m getting ready to build a few positions.  I’m looking at some Asian REITs and Canadian Energy Trusts.  Both are paying dividend yields 15-20%.  While these probably won’t hold, a yileld over 10% is phenomenal.

Investing theme for 2009: Make sure you limit your U.S. exposure. Stay away from anything that is 100% dependent on the U.S.  U.S. stocks in commodities or companies that make most of their money internationally are better than those that do not.  I’d continue to stay away from financials, home builders and retailers.  Retail will get annihilated in 2009 with closures and more bankruptcies.

Upcoming Content Here At 20smoney.com

As I conclude, I wish to give you a preview of some of the content that you will see coming up at 20smoney.com.

1. Five Ways To Dominate 2009
2. Three Ways To Re-Build Your Savings
3. Dividend vs. Stock Buy Back - Which Do You Prefer?
4. Five Lifetime Impact Goals For Myself And Other 20-somethings
5. More Book Reviews For Mandatory Reads In Your 20s
6. How To Learn The Basics Of Buying & Selling Stocks

Thanks everybody for being a part of 20smoney.com these past 8-9 months.  It’s been great!  See ya in 2009!

Related Stocks:  AUY, CHK, GDX, GLD, SDS, SKF, VE, XLY

                Inverse ETFs are designed to offer the opposite return on defined index.  If the underlying index declines 1%, the inverse ETF will rise 1%.  In a bear market, these ETFs offer an attractive alternative to shorting stocks.  Further, tax advantages exist for owning an inverse ETF versus being short of a stock.

                Over the months, I have often recommended inverse ETFs in EPIC Insights, my weekly newsletter.  Particularly, I like to use double inverse ETFs (doubles).  These instruments will return twice the return of the underlying index which means a 1% drop in the index offers a 2% positive return.

                The strategy of using inverse funds to express a view seems simple, but there is one key caveat to remember.  The inverse ETFs are designed to return the inverse performance of the underlying index on a daily basis.  At first look, this appears to be insignificant.   After all, any long term period is comprised of a series of shorter periods so why wouldn't the series of daily moves equal the long term movement? 

                To illustrate the danger of relying on a series of daily moves to express a long term view, I ran three scenarios.  All three time series will lose 10% over a 20 day period, but the return patterns differ.  Scenario 1 shows a straight trend where all 20 days are equally negative.  Series 2 shows minimal volatility where every price movement is within a range of -2% to +2%.  Series 3 shows large volatility where all positive moves are greater than 5% and all negative moves are worse than -5%.  The surprising results were as follows:

                Knowing the underlying index has declined 10%, I would expect the double to return nearly 20%.  This occurred in the straight trend and minimal volatility scenarios.   However, large volatility not only failed to deliver the 20% desired return, it resulted in a large loss that exceeds the loss of the underlying index.  How can a double lose more than the index off which it is based?  By delivering daily moves in a highly volatile environment, massive price swings reversed the double's intent and created an unexpected loss.

                Armed with this information, should we dismiss inverse ETFs as another member of the alphabet soup disaster and toss them aside with CDOs and SIVs?  As mentioned earlier, I continue to use doubles and believe they have an important role for individual's portfolios.  However, you cannot predict a market move, buy the doubles and expect gains.  Instead, investors must also consider how volatile price movements will be.  In a scenario where volatility is low, inverse ETFs are powerful tools for long term investors.  When volatility is high, the ETFs should be used as trading vehicles that allow you to express a short term view.  By considering the direction and path of price movements, investors can optimize their performance and prevent the unpleasant surprise that accompanies an investment failing to fulfill your expectations.  Next time you decide to purchase SKF or QID to express views ask yourself if this is a trade or an investment.  The designation may seem subtle, but the difference in return will be immense.

Related Stocks:  QID, SKF

As the year comes to a close, here is some of the stuff that I have read and found interesting.  I thought I’d pass these links along to you.

China positioning the Yuan to be an International Currency - This is important for any American as the dollar is likely to lose some of its shine internationally in the coming years.

Inflation to be the legacy of our bailout addiction - Like I’ve been pushing for a while now, I believe inflation will be the only thing left after our current economic messes shake out. I’m a gold buyer.

Interesting piece on the status changes across the world - China’s status went higher in 2008 especially with the spectacular Olympics. America’s economic image definitely took a beating. Will 2008 mark the start of the decoupling scenario? I believe so.

Worst Predictions of 2008 - Both sad and comical.

The Monetary Base has skyrocketed like never before - Can you say inflation?

Happy New Year everybody!  Don’t drink on drive on New Years Eve!

Here’s to an amazing 2009 with loads of new opportunities in the business world, the stock market and in our personal lives.  I don’t know about you, but I’m going to have one hell of a 2009.  Take care.

Related Stocks:  VE

This has been one crazy year. Here are my random year-end awards:

Biggest Loser of 2008: America

2008 saw the collapse of the U.S. economy driven by the financial and real estate markets. While the poor blame the rich, the responsible blame the stupid and the politicians all blame the opposing party, our economy continues to deteriorate. Unfortunately for all of us, it seems that very few of our leaders know what to do about our economy (and the incoming President is not one of them). The bottom line is that Americans are broke and so is the government. The only real outcome to this mess is a slower economy which might be painful for many.

Even Bigger Loser of 2008: Capitalism

It’s a shame, but it seems that mature democracies and economies are unable to hold onto the free market principles that made itself great. America clearly has reached a point in its history where we are unable to allow free market natural corrections in our economy. Our leaders pursue votes over long term economic health; and you cannot pursue votes by doing the right thing for our economy which would be to let it contract.

Government interference is responsible for creating the massive bubbles that, when they go bust, create extreme pain economically. Government was 100% responsible for the real estate bubble by creating artificially low rates and encouraging risky loans. These government induced bubbles are never sustainable and too many get hurt by them when they pop.

2008 saw, perhaps, the official end to free market capitalism in America. Government is taking over industries, bailing out companies and organizations left and right and wants to even bail out individual home owners. Furthermore, with the election of Obama, clearly, we are heading towards a bigger government with a bigger role in the economy. Sadly, I think our incoming President believes that assembling an economic “dream team” of people who are smart enough to micromanage the economy is the right path to take. This will only end up being a disaster. There is nobody smart enough to run the economy. A healthy economy runs itself and companies going under (AIG, Lehman, Bear Stearns, GM, Ford, shall I keep going?) is actually a sign of a healthy economy punishing bad companies and extreme risk taking.

Good bye capitalism and good bye to future economic growth. The only way our economy will not contract will be if the government funds growth, and I promise you there will be ramifications to this action. Can you say currency collapse?

Biggest Event of 2008: Barack Obama Becomes President

Like him or hate him; it is an historic event. We have our first black President. We’ll have plenty of time to judge his future successes and failures.

Worst Political Campaign of 2008: John McCain’s Run For President

What an absolute disaster of an attempt at winning a public office. While the Republican party was probably doomed this election year, the attempt of McCain to beat Obama at Obama’s game was a downright train wreck. McCain quickly joined the crowd of bashing the greed on Wall St and calling for a bailout of homeowners which put him in the same camp as Obama. Then, he decided to go along with the awful $700 billion bailout that passed in Congress. This sealed his fate.

Biggest Newcomer of 2008: Sarah Palin

This would be Obama but Obama was well on the scene before 2008 rolled around. Sarah Palin came out of nowhere to join McCain as his VP candidate. She rocked the Convention and became a rock star in the political scene. I like her personally but don’t really see her as a V.P. I hope she runs for Senate for Alaska since I like her views and think she is a fresh face for Washington.

Best New Blog of 2008: 20s Money!

It’s been a great first year since we launched in April. The traffic and subscription base have increased steadily and I have truly enjoyed writing for the blog! It has been one heck of a learning experience!

Look for a future article detailing everything about the blog’s first year of existance and what the future holds; including details regarding how much money I’ve made through the blog and some of the surprises of running my first blog.

Biggest Surprise of 2008: Oil Collapses

While I figured a pullback in energy prices would happen after we hit such as a high, I would not have guessed that we would have dropped below $40 a barrel! What might be an even bigger surprise in 2009 is a potential huge shoot up in energy prices from current levels. With energy companies cutting production, a global economic rebound might result in much higher energy prices in the future.

Best Trader of 2008: Tim Sykes

While the market tanked, Tim Sykes and his penny shorting strategy is up approximately 250% in the past year plus. He is #1 on Covestor with regards to performance and popularity. His strategy might surprise you but his numbers don’t lie. Click the link above to learn more about his strategy. I recommend his TIMAlerts service which will provide you with real time stock alerts based on his actual trades.

Best and Safest Investment of 2008: Gold

Gold held up great in 2008 and looks like it will finish another year up. While gold stocks got punished, the price of gold itself is still well over $800. If you read my blog, you know that I like gold heading into 2009 due to my extreme bearishness on the U.S. dollar.

Worst Investment of 2008: Banks

The financial sector utterly collapsed this year. They were overleveraged and the furthest thing from transparent. The bottom line is that the financial institutions will have to rethink how to make money heading into the future. Stay away from banks. The number of banks in our country is likely to continue to contract heading into 2009.

Biggest Scam of 2008: Madoff

Madoff’s Ponzi Scheme is all over the news. Sadly, it’s another example of greed and fraud. Unfortunately, it will be used as ammunition in class warfare and taxing the “evil rich”. I just wish the biggest Ponzi Scheme of all time (Social Security) would garner the same level of outrage.

Biggest Jerk of 2008: Blagojevich

In the same week that we learned about Madoff’s Ponzi Scheme, we found out about the huge scandal to sell a U.S. Senate seat! Blago’s taped conversations were appalling and outrageous. Sadly, I find it hard to believe that this is a rarity in American politics. Blago is probably just one who was dumb enough to get caught unfortunately. Also, what a filthy mouth this guy has!

Biggest Victim of 2008: Retirees

While I hate to call anyone a victim because stocks do have an inherent level of risk associated with them, retirees who saw their assets get chopped in half definitely are the ones who lost big time with this year’s economic collapse. As a 20-something in a pretty good financial state, I can ride out this storm and have plenty of years ahead to grow my money. Unfortunately, people who are retired or looking to retire just lost a good chunk of the money that they need to live on.

Best Consumer Device of 2008: iPhone 3G

This is the easiest award on the list! After accidentally dropping my Blackberry in water (I should have done this sooner), I decided to move to an iPhone and it was the best decision I could have made. What an absolutely amazing device. If you want to read my thoughts on the iPhone, I will refer you to some of my past articles: My Official iPhone Review and Projections.

Best Retailer of 2008: Wal-Mart

Retailers got killed this year and this Holiday season is shaping up to be a disaster of a season for the retailers.  Wal-Mart, however, continues to dominate with their incredible distribution system and low costs.  Also, Wal-Mart is one of only two stocks in the Dow to rise this year.

Best Innovator of 2008: Apple

I know, I know, I’m bias towards Apple but it’s amazing that they continue to push the envelope across their product lines.  In 2008, we saw the release of the second iteration of the iPhone as well as a new Macbook line.  Their Macbooks even came with an entire new manufacturing process where the Macbook shell is a solid piece of aluminum.  With a massive warchest of cash, look for Apple to continue their innovation in 2009 while competitors struggle.  Apple’s stock will continue to struggle in the short term because of the U.S. consumer, but their company is as strong as ever.

Biggest Joke of An Industry: U.S. Automakers

I almost threw up when I watched some of the hearings in Washington of the Big 3 CEOs asking for tax payer’s money. It is such a shame that we run an economy that rewards crappy companies with flawed business plans. If we would let these awful companies go under, the result would be a vibrant auto manufacturing industry. Unfortunately, we won’t get that and eventually I see Obama taking over the auto companies and our wildly efficient government will then be in the business of making cars! Great!

My advice: Fire the management, scrap the unions and file for bankruptcy. Then, let other entities come in and buy up the assets and start building quality cars for a profit.

The Group With The Biggest Opportunity In 2008 (And 2009): 20-Somethings!

Falling stock prices and home prices might be frustrating for new investors and home owners but this is nothing but a great thing for 20-somethings. Remember, an economic down turn, if it has to happen, is best to happen to you earlier in your life than later. For one, you don’t have as much dependents in your 20s so an income shortage isn’t as big of a disaster as if you had a home, a wife and a bunch of kids.

With regards to investing, now is the best time for you to supercharge your savings and investing. Buying more and cheap prices mean you will accumulate many more shares than you would have even just a year ago. With that said, just because stocks are lower doesn’t mean all stocks are winners. Don’t invest blindly, but don’t be afraid to be aggressive if you know where to put your money.

With regards to real estate, homes are much more affordable than they were in recent years. Also, mortgage rates are at historic lows. If you can comfortably afford a home and are very confident of your job security, I would recommend looking into buying a home. Your home value might go lower in the near future, but for me, it is a trade off worth taking for the comfort of having a permanent home for my family.

With regards to business and income, this is a great time to start your own business or start up an attempt at a side income stream. A blog or an online business is a great pursuit that I talk about frequently on this blog.

The bottom line is that there are incredible opportunities ahead for 20-somethings, even in this down economy. I am committed to helping you find ways to increase your wealth through investing, real estate, income and other means. Don’t be discouraged by this past year, but be encouraged because the reality is that there are ways to make money no matter what the macro-economic picture looks like. Keep reading 20smoney.com and I will continue to document my pursuits in this area of my life. Happy New Year!

Related Stocks:  AIG, GM, VE

Tiger Woods is the greatest athlete of all time.  Yes, I said it.

Check these out: AAON, CPK, ENSG, HOMB, HS, ISH, PNY, PSEC, SJI, SYKE

Related Stocks:  CPLA, DIS, ISH

Looking from another angle at the monthly 25 year chart, it seems like bottoms are found at or near the alignment of several horizontal and trend lines. Less likely for tops though - only 1 will do the trick.

From a broad look at where the next major alignment is its pretty obvious were heading towards 24/barrel.

Right now, though, we're stuck between the 40 support/resistance level and the thin green trendline, so we could retrace back to 40 before we head to 31 then 24.

but only time will tell...

Related Stocks:  DXO, OIL, USO

2008 was a crappy year for most people. Unless you saw the financial and real estate crisis coming like some people did, you probably lost money. You might have even lost your job. Unfortunately, most of the fundamental causes of 2008’s economic crisis are still in play. Namely, we’re broke, have too much debt, and have a contracting economy.

The good news is that 2009 is a fresh year with fresh opportunities. It’s up to you to take advantage of them. In this article, I will make some of my own predictions and explain my reasoning for each

The Big Three Automakers

With the recent announcement that Bush provided billions in aid to get the Big Three through the end of the year to next March, the question remains: How will these guys get profitable? My prediction: They won’t.

Without the forced restructring of a bankruptcy court, there is little that will change in these companies. The union won’t budge and management has few cards to play. So, what will happen?

My guess is that come March or April whenever the time is up for the automakers to restructure, Obama’s administration and the Democratic congress will give them more money in exchange for an ownership stake in the companies. Also, the Car Czar position will be created. In effect, the government will be in the car manufacturing business which will be an utter disaster long term for our country. With the government running the companies, political agendas such as climate change will take priority over profitability. The companies will become money pits with tax payer money continuously paying for them.

Did anybody hear Bush say if they didn’t restructure accordingly, then in March, they would return the funds that the government just gave them? Yeah right. Don’t they have something like $50 billion in debt? That money is long gone.

The result of all this will be bad news… America’s dying manufacturing base will contract even more.

Real Estate

My guess is that the government will pump enough money into the economy in order to stabilize home values. Now, you have to understand that just because the price of your home stabilizes or even rises in dollars, this doesn’t mean you are building wealth. If the rate of inflation is higher than the increase in nominal value of your home, you are losing wealth.

This is what I predict will happen. We will see that the deflation argument will conclude rather sharply and we will usher in an era of increasing inflation as the government prints more and more money to prop up our failing economy. While people might not lose their homes as fast as in 2008, the price of regular consumer products will start to rise which might pose an even bigger threat to Obama’s beloved middle class.

The Financial Sector

I believe in 2009, you will see more contracting and merging of banks. More banks will fail and more will get bought out. Basically, the number of banks open for business will continue to decline. Banks will need to find new ways to make money and this might prove to be tough with a slowing economy and a broke American public.

The Dollar And Commodities

I believe that our direction is going to be inflation. It may take a little time for us to get there, but eventually it will get here. This means that the dollar will decline in value big time. Inversely, I think commodities will stabilize and begin to rise again maybe even reaching new highs, if not in 2009, then in 2010.

Some believe that if inflation gets bad, we could see a bubble in gold stocks similar to the NASDAQ bubble.

Where Can You Make Money?

i believe the best place to make money next year will be foreign stocks. Fundamentally sound companies in resource rich economies or Asian economies should be sound investments. Look for high yielding stocks to offset the risk; cash flow from a nice dividend yield provides a nice return while you wait for stock prices to shoot higher. I’m currently looking at Canadian Energy Trusts and Asian Commercial REITs; both have very high yields right now.

Related Stocks:  DAG

Related Stocks:  SINT

Related Stocks:  JJSF

Related Stocks:  TWGP

Related Stocks:  DORM

I got this indicator from The Art of Trading blog, and its was pretty damn consistent since '06. Time to go short.

Santa rally? not this time. Santa is broke waiting at the unemployment line, snacking on some garbage.

Related Stocks:  DIA, QQQQ, SPY

SAFTEY BRIENFING- BE SAFE, DON'T DRINK AND DRIVE, DON'T BEAT YOUR SPOUSE, PET, OR CHILDREN. WEAR PROTECTION IF YOU ARE GOING TO SLEEP AROUND.  AGAIN STAY SAFE.  THAT IS ALL.  HOOAH.

Yep, taking the other side of the trade now that we have more of the same, just take a look at the time and sales here:

All this huge 1.5$ drop happening in less than 10 seconds or so!

Market makers certainly know very well how to scare off bottom pickers.

32/barrel here we come.

Alright, its a shake out... took a small loss on hedging

Related Stocks:  DXO, USO

The spike up after the fake break of the upward trend line and the fact that oil is down for the 10th day in a row convinced me I need some volatility play here on a recovery.

Tried to hedge again and again took a small loss on the failed break of trend line. I figured the same pattern wouldn't repeat again today... so far it didn't anyway, still got 6 hours till the close.

_____________________________________________________________________

Covered puts, recovered previous losses on that failed hedge.

Too much downside. I think 32 would be a good price to start adding to my DXO.

I'll hedge with USO now since its easily shortable.

2 week resistance trend line is broken to the upside - BARELY - and everybody is pretty much waiting for a break of 37.2/barrel to confirm a multi-day retracement here but it could tank so fast.

Related Stocks:  USO

LET THIS BE MY FIRST TIME TO STATE MY PROFITS.  i TRADE STOCKS AND OPTIONS, MY ACCOUNT STARTED WITH 29,750 AND CURRENTLY ITS AT 37,400 AFTER COMMISIONS.   I HAVE PAID CLOSE TO 4K IN COMMISIONS.  I AM NOT SURE IF THAT IS TO MUCH TO PAY IN COMMISIONS OR NOT, AND WOULD LIKE SOME FEED BACK AND SEE WHAT OTHERS OPINIONS ARE ON THIS TOPIC.  LETS REALLY START USING COVESTOR FOR WHAT IT IS GUYS.  LETS ALL START NOW BEING TRANSPARENT

WOW! the last time I've seen this pattern was when I used to play penny stocks following the great Tim Sykes... never thought I'd get caught up in one, I erased all my profits from last semester and lost more on a failed attempt to hedge this beast in the futures market (CL)...

8th day in a row of losses for oil, worst case scenario unfolding right infront of all DXO holders, me included.

Related Stocks:  DXO, USO