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We have conducted channel checks at Sears and Kmart stores. 20% of sales reps reports stores are less busy indicating bearish activity there for 4Q and Xmas season. In addition most stores report pre-Xmas sales are coming and there is lots of excess inventory at the stores. While SHLD has plunged this year we are immune to current price or past performance. We current Q as looking bad for SHLD and expect negative numbers next earnings report and the shares to fall correspondingly.

Using our channel checking strategy we get to BRCM as a good long for the Xmas season. Nintendo Wii is selling out everywhere (2 BRCM components) and iPhones are selling well per our in europe it seems. We see from department stores, to toy stores and obviously at game stores that the Wii is just about the hottest item out there for the second year in a row. We this translating into a BRCM beat for 4Q which analysts and "street geniuses" will start talking about as Xmas gets closer. We did NOT buy BRCM due to the large falloff in shares in the last month but that fact helps provide a nice entry point in our view. Using our channel check system we would have bought BRCM at any price given our view that end markets for BRCM will outperform in 4Q.

CRI earnings we're pretty good in our view ($0.58 v. street view $0.56). Stock rallied strongly both days after earnings. We were up 4% on the position so we sold. We are event driven and short term. The event here was earnings and our channel checks showed that CRI was doing better than the street thought. Now it is up and we sold. I see it shows us down in the system right now but when it updates tomorrow you will see the 4% gain.

We have conducted channel checks at Carter's stores in October and two things strike us. First no sales. No big discounting programs, nothing of mention. So no discounting, good for gross margins maybe. Second, many stores, over half, report being "busier" than last year at this time. This is compelling to us. we know it is generally perceived to be a rough time out there for retailers. We follow our channel checks alone. We'll see how they do when Carter's reports on October 23rd. Hey check us out at our new media site - www.ccers.tv we discuss CRI as well as BBY and other names not found here on our covestor site.

Again checking the channel. Despite the meltdown we channel checked mortgage brokers and found that even some subprime stuff is actually going on. This made the "crisis" seem a little overblown and made us think the strong players might make it through. CFC is the biggest, so we bought this one. At this juncture we would have bought any sound mortgage lender, just figured best of breed. See all our work at www.thechannelcheckers.com

We bought RIMM today because we are expecting a strong Q report from them. We conducted our channel checks at 100 cell phone stores and found RIMM performing very strongly in the PDA/Smarpthone category. Our view is iPhone impact will be minimal to RIMM in current Q, Palm weakened per our checks and Nokia weakened in international in the smartphone space. RIMM is up a ton in past few weeks but our method is to buy companies that perform best in our channel check surveys regardless of price action. We buy around quarterly reports and other event reports. Consistent with our channel checks, Palm pre-announced weak numbers today. You can see our reports in real-time at our web site www.thechannelcheckers.com

We sold TTWO today because we operate under a rule where we sell stocks down 15%. We still like TTWO on strength of "The Darkness" game and on anticipation for GTA IV. So this was a discipline sale and not a change in fundamental outlook for TTWO.

hey i just wanted to update the previous post.

Research on top new games for Fall reveal that Halo 3 is most anticipated game. MSFT is the published so we view the demand for Halo 3 as having positive impact on Xbox sales. NVDA gets nice boost from Xbox sales. We realize PC's are still biggest part of NVDA 's business but Xbox upsure would add sizzle to NVDA's 2Q numbers and 3Q guide. NVDA reports July 26.

My channel checks showed that TTWO games are highly anticipated especially The Darkness and GTA IV. GTA IV is ok, but Halo 3 is the other game that is more highly anticipated according to my research.