Blog Post

I picked up AMZN because it's a well run company and I felt amazon web services are going to take over the internet.  When it jumped 10% after earnings I was pleased but when we had another 10 percent jump this week I was a little concerned.  I don't buy that Kindle is a good reason for this like everyone claims. 

Kindle is cool but I never see it anywhere.  I view the Kindle like the product line from Creative Labs 10 years ago.  Creative Labs had portable mp3 players available before the ipod.  They stored large amounts of mp3s with a good battery in a small device you can take anywhere.  They currently make the "zen" micro mp3 player but if you look back in time you'll see they beat the ipod to the punch.  But the timing wasn't right and the ipod was more affordable when it finally arrived and it looked cool as hell so it blew up.  I feel the Kindle is like that.  A little early (too early?) to market, a little expensive and a little ugly.  Image the reaction when, for example, Apple announces a portable reader like the Kindle.  You know everyone will think it's going to be better...and it probably would be.

So when I see 5b in market cap added over this in a single day I get a little nervous so I sold all my AMZN.  I certainly didn't mind caching in on the hysteria.  I intend to pick it up again at a lower price once the market realizes it's overreaction to the Citigroup report.  I still think AMZN will double over the next year or two but for reasons other than the Kindle.