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Google has been on a terrific run for the last two months. Better than I could have ever expected. It seems that the buy point in early September was just about perfect as the chart has been pointed north east ever since. But, here we are. Google's stock is now trading at a P/E above 55, it's broken through 700, and its market cap now eclipses that of Walmart. What's left? Despite the rumors of the gPhone, I see realistic longterm growth rates around 30% for Google as opposed to the 40+% year over year earnings gains they've been posting recently. In that case, current forward P/E valuation at 34 would seem to be in range of "fair valuation" for Google. For those interested in the stock, now is probably not a great time to get in. I would say that as forward P/E reaches toward 35+, you're probably going to be looking for some P/E contraction either through a intermediate-to-long term base or through a material correction in the stock. At this point, expectations are fast out pacing Google's torrid performance. Will I sell now? No. My upside target remains around a forward P/E of 35 and then I will have put my finger on the trigger with an eye to sell should near term momentum indicators turn for the worse or should the euphoria over the stock culminate in an exhaustion gap/rally. Obviously, I would prefer the latter.

After Google took its hit on July 31, I was salivating at an opportunity to buy Google. Given my conviction, I likely should I have bought it a few weeks ago when it bottomed out, hit its 200-day moving average intraday, and closed near its intraday high. For any number of reasons, I didn't and waited. Last night, I got all the confirmation I needed. MACD has crossed over, RSI crossed back over the 50 reaching the highest point since the gap down, and the price has once again broken back above the resistance created by the gap down. For more check out the post of my blog forthcoming tonight (9/5/2007).