16-Feb-09
Bill My Parents- the next Paypal for Teens
Bill My Parents- New Investor Media link
I have to tell you the first time I heard the idea back in June, IDAE was pursuing its other business plan simultaneously called Bill My Parents,
I knew it was a home run. Jim Collas calls Teen, Tween credit/debit
cards and payment systems the next frontier, just like cell phones for
kids 10 years ago, and I must agree.
Like one financial guru
once said "If you want to be extremely wealthy, all you need to do is
find out where everyone is heading and get their first" IDAE is doing
just that, putting themselves in a position to be first to market with
a viable teen payment system.
Currently, Socialwise has focused
the majority of their resources to Bill My Parents (BMP) because the
management believes the BMP platform has a higher ceiling and
marketability.
With a little research, its easy to see why.
Whats Bill My Parents?
BMP
simply will allow a parent(s) to verify and approve/ disapprove a
transaction of an item their kid(s) have requested. The next phase will
include a debit card for kids that gives parents an enormous amount of
control, and keeps it simple and convenient.
The first priority
will be building an online store using a top retailer like Amazon to
sell top selling products and offering the BMP platform as a payment
option. This is perfect, since they will not need to try and find top
sellers, or stock items, just use the retailer to promote their BMP
product! Then BMP will get a cut of the sale, around 10%.
Lets break down the market.
First
off parents are far more likely to buy non essential items for their
kids then themselves, even if it means sacrificing their own desires.
This is true even in a down market.
Lets look at one area of focus for the BMP product: video games, a multi billion dollar industry.
Think about marketing a video game.
Currently the video game companies need to try to target a small group
in their advertising approach. Generally they cannot advertise to
parents, since parents really dont always know which games their kids
like. So what they stick with is marketing to late teens to early
thirties to capture the market that will respond to the ad and have
money to buy the product. This is their main market. Of course younger
groups will see an advertisement and bug their parents till their
parents buy it for them, but this is only a bonus.
You must
note, some of these games, and gaming systems will sell out in hours or
days. We are talking MILLIONS of copies at $30-$60 each (not including
gaming systems and controllers which can easily hit $400 or more)
So
what if a gaming company could advertise directly to the 10-18 yr. old
group? Basically BMP solves this problem for every company in this
situation. They can market right to the younger kids and advertise "Buy
this now with BMP". With the excitement about this market, IDAE has
secured lots of discounted ads. This is a nice first step.
Now lets put this into revenue terms, since really thats all we care about.
From the numbers that have been thrown out there, the big target for payment
systems is 3 Million users. This is using other companies who have been
aquired. With the BMP application alone, this could translate into
about $900,000,000 in acquisition value alone, or better yet $18+ per
share. (this does not include social gifting only BMP)
How realistic is 3MM users?
With the marketing plan using the social networking platform, typically a “hot” application can reach over a million users in days. With the top applications reaching tens of millions in weeks. I think 3MM users through social networking and other ads in a reasonable time is VERY realistic. In fact, as great as this application is, I believe 3 Million is a very small number to the overall market.
Now the other part of the plan.
Bill my Parents Debit card:
Personally I think this is the golden Egg. The crème de la crème of the youth payment systems. A way to give your kid money, without giving them your card (Got your attention now?) Imagine loading your kids card with $200 and being able to:
- block undesirable merchants
- specify a safe merchant list that they can use,
- limit amounts at any merchant,
- monitor the card
- …oh
and FREEZE (or unfreeze) the account at anytime with a simple text
message or email. (When your kid gets grounded, why should they have
the ability to spend money?)
Now add being able to simply add amounts to the debit card and parents have full control. These cards can be used anywhere MasterCard is used. Imagine the possibilities. I think this is where the company is headed for the long term. This in fact is a viable payment system for young people.
As far as numbers and profit, The market figures value at $1000 per user is reasonable for payment systems. So this means in terms of acquisition, 1MM debit card users would value that part of the business at 1 Billion. As far as profit, I haven’t been able to find any solid numbers, but you figure someone charging $1000 a year on average would be reasonable. (Note: this can be used for all a child’s purchases over a year, from school clothes and supplies, to gifts for friends and family). I would think revenue from that would be anywhere from 0.5%-1%.
5 Million users = $250,000,000 - $500,000,000
10 Million users = $500,000,000- $1 Billion
I
don’t see why the profit wouldn’t be at least 20% maybe higher given
the outsourcing. If thats the case we are talking profit in the $50MM
to $200MM plus range.
Compare just this one small part(the Debit card) of Socialwise to "Heartland Payment Systems"
Heartland does 82MM in EBITDA and still holds a market cap of over $350MM! (thats after a 50% decline in the last 3 weeks.) Alone if the Debit card achieved the numbers above and translated into a value of 350MM in market cap, that would spell out over $7 a share.
Are you begining to see the big picture?
Now add that to the BMP platform (not to mention social gifting) and the numbers are staggering. This is a legitimate multi billion dollar company.
I
think what is really exciting is this is just one business plan of
IdeaEdge's that they are executing, and does not include social gifting
which I will hit on later. Combined there is no reason in my mind they
wont be able to rival a payment system such as Paypal.
Feel free to comment and ask questions.
Check out the site
Bill my Parents
Tagged Stocks: IDAE
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