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Holding: GNK

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Symbol Sector Return Exposure Trades Last Trade Status
GNK Marine Transportation -36.96%  n/a 3  19-Sep-08  Prior Holding
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05-May-08

GNK Earnings Analysis

Holding Rationale for GNK.

I’ll just post my email to Jay here so I don’t have to rewrite it all:

Dude, earnings out today - and the results look VERY good for the future man, I’m gonna dig in more, but from what I am reading this looks GREAT.  Here’s some bullets:

  • Daily avg. revenue per vessel: $35,891.  Daily avg. cost to operate a vessel: $4,278.  That’s almost a 800% gross profit margin.
  • Daily avg. revenue per vessel up from $20,683 last year same qtr.  Up almost 33%.
  • Charter rates expected to go up more.
  • Genco locks in these rates in staggared multi-year contracts, so rev’s are stable.
  • Genco operates 28 vessels with 4 more ships being built in next 1.5 years.
  • These 4 ships immediately add $260,000 (prolly more at those contract rates when signed) / day in revenue.  
  • These 4 ships add $23.7mm revenue per quarter ($94.9mm annually).  
  • This quarter they made $91.7M, so that’s an immediate 25% revenue growth.
  • Upped dividend from 0.85 / qtr to $1.00 / qtr.
Factoring in the 4 ships revenue at an assumed $65,000 / day (the rate they signed last contract):
Est. 2010 Earnings: $480,440,000  (2007 Earnings $185,387,000)
Est. Profit Rate (Q1 2008 was 81%): 77%
Est. 2010 Net Income: $369,938,800 (2007 Income: $106,809,000)
Shares Out: 28,914,350
Est. 2010 EPS: $12.79 (2007 EPS:  $3.69)
Est. 2010 PE: 10 (Industry Avg EPS: 14.5)
Est. 2010 Price: $128.00
 
Based on some pretty darn reliable, locked in stone contract rates and the delivery of 4 more Panamax ships between now and end of 2009, I am forecasting their 2010 EPS (assuming charter rates stay FLAT) at $12.79.  That’s over a 300% EPS increase from 2007.  From that, and a PE of 10 (current industry average is 14.5), I am forecasting a price of about $128 in 2010.
 
This estimate is based on the full FY of 2010 and also assuming they do not order any additional vessels beyond 2009.  Keep in mind they will receive one of the four vessels in 2008, and the remaining three in 2009 (staggered over the year) so increased revenues will occur between now and 2010, so I figure my estimate to be fairly conservative.
 
I will be buying more soon.

Tagged Stocks: GNK

 

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dan.uyemura

GNK Out
Rank 29/36
Return -36.96% at 2009-01-07
Rank 29/36
Trades 3
Followers 3
 

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