Covestor - Dr.Prognosis Blog

BHP BILLITON LIMITED ADR

Wed, 14 May 2008 11:05:00

It is always tempting to take profits when BHP spikes to a new high, but I don’t want to take the risk of not owning the world’s largest mining company. I am a technical trader in many respects, but own BHP for the fundamentals. Global demand for basic resources is high and likely to remain high even if the world economy “slows down.” High quality mining companies like BHP are best bought on setbacks. I will probably buy options on more shares if price falls significantly.

Related Stocks: BHP

Trex Company, Inc.

Thu, 07 Feb 2008 16:02:54

Trex manufactures materials for the construction of outdoor decks from recycled plastic grocery bags, reclaimed pallet wrap, and waste wood. The company made some mistakes and the stock fell off a cliff. However, the company resolved its problems and now is a high quality, low cost manufacturer with an attractive and desirable product line. I don't normally go bottom fishing, but this opportunity looked too good to miss.

Related Stocks: TWP

ProLogis Trust

Thu, 07 Feb 2008 16:02:08

ProLogis is a real estate investment trust that owns industrial distribution facilities in 20 countries. In addition, about half of the company's operating income comes from the fees it earns from managing a variety of property funds. ProLogis is a strong player who appears likely to become more dominant over the coming years. PLD fell back to its early 2006 levels in January, which looked like a good opportunity to take a position.

Related Stocks: PLD

3M Company

Thu, 07 Feb 2008 16:02:41

3M manufactures a broad array of products. Sixty-one percent of the company's revenues came from outside of the United States in 2006, up from 53-percent in 2000. After falling 25-percent from its 2007, the stock began to look like a good recovery candidate in late January.

Related Stocks: MMM

Focus Media Holding Limited

Tue, 22 Jan 2008 15:01:56

Focus Media Holding Limited enjoys some dominance in advertising in China where it is buying other players, growing fast, and making a profit. The recent fall may not be over, but it is probably close to its end.

Related Stocks: FMCN

Market report: 2008-01-16

Wed, 16 Jan 2008 21:01:35

I have been holding most of my funds in short-term US treasury obligations. I will move more fully into stocks when I see signs of a bottom.

AES Corporation

Fri, 04 Jan 2008 20:01:00

AES operates electricity generation and distribution businesses in 26 countries on five continents. The company is purposefully in markets where the Gross Domestic Product is growing rapidly, reasoning that these areas should sustain the strongest growth in demand for electricity. In addition, AES has a strong focus on alternative energy production. AES offers exposure to emerging markets, utilities, and alternative energy in one package. I took a position when I did because AES was at its 200-day moving average and it has risen from this level repeatedly in recent weeks.

Related Stocks: AES

Legacy Reserves LP

Wed, 02 Jan 2008 01:01:29

Legacy Reserves Limited Partnership buys and manages oil and natural gas properties in the Permian Basin of West Texas and southeast New Mexico. The current dividend yield of the company is 8.3 percent and price is at what appears to be important support. I am likely to increase the size of this position from time to time.

Related Stocks: LGCY

CGM Focus Fund

Wed, 02 Jan 2008 01:01:21

I made a decision recently to diversify the managment of some of my funds to other hands than mine. Ken Heebner's CGM Focus Fund includes many companies from my watch list. He goes long and short with concentrated positions in a way that makes sense to me. Therefore, I decided to let him manage a piece of my money.

Related Stocks: CGMFX

Matthews Asia Pacific Fund

Wed, 02 Jan 2008 01:01:41

The Matthews Asia Pacific Fund offers good exposure to an important region with an all-cap reach and growth bias. I expect growth in Asia to eclipse the U.S. economy before I retire, so I think it is important to build substantial investments there. I will add to this position from time to time.

Related Stocks: MPACX

Marsh & McLennan

Wed, 02 Jan 2008 01:01:24

Marsh & McLennan offers risk-management advice and transaction services via three major operating units. Marsh Inc. provides risk and insurance services, Mercer Consulting supplies a variety of human resources and other consulting services, and Kroll provides investigative and security consulting services. MMC has been in a downtrend since October 2000, but recently showed signs of bottoming. After forming a higher low on 18 December, MMC gapped above its 50-day moving average on 21 December. The stock is now positioned just below its 200-day moving average. A move higher would likely attract broad interest from institutional funds.

Related Stocks: MMC

Ingersoll-Rand

Wed, 02 Jan 2008 01:01:25

Ingersoll-Rand manufactures refrigeration systems, mechanical locks, electronic security systems, golf carts, and several other products. It has three segments: climate control technologies, industrial technologies, and security technologies. I took a position in early December because the company was flush with cash and seemed a safe way to gain exposure to the industrial sector. Then IR announced it was buying Trane Inc for $10.1 Billion. The combined company promises to be a global, diversified industrial group that dominates in climate control. I would not have taken a position in anticipation of the merger, but am content to hold for now. The initial rebound from the stunned sell-off looks promising.

Related Stocks: IR

Hopewell Holdings Limited

Wed, 02 Jan 2008 01:01:22

Hong Kong-based Hopewell Holdings Limited has diverse business interests spread across property investment and development, highway infrastructure, hotel and hospitality, and construction businesses. The company pays a dividend of 4.6 percent and offers good exposure to growth in China.

Related Stocks: HOWWY

iShares Lehman Short Treasury Bond Fund

Wed, 02 Jan 2008 01:01:38

The iShares Lehman Short Treasury Bond Fund invests in U.S. Government obligations with a maturity of one year or less and currently pays a dividend of 4 percent. I decided to stash my cash here until I recognized a durable bottom in the stock market.

Related Stocks: SHV

AMIS Holdings Inc.

Wed, 21 Nov 2007 21:11:27

AMIS Holdings Inc. designs and manufactures semiconductor products. The whole technology complex is under pressure and AMIS is trending down. Price rebounded from near 6.50 on 8 November and now appears likely to fall back.

Related Stocks: AMIS

Crown Castle International

Wed, 21 Nov 2007 21:11:28

The wireless infrastructure company Crown Castle International has fallen sharply from each of the last two peaks it formed near 42. The company reports that it expects losses to widen, so the 20 November peak looks like a good opportunity to short CCI with a view to it falling at least a few dollars.

Related Stocks: CCI

Becton Dickinson

Wed, 21 Nov 2007 21:11:52

Becton Dickinson broke down after making a new high on 20 November. BD has a chance of falling to its 200-day moving average. The medical technology company has done well in recent years, so I am looking at this as a short-term trade.

Related Stocks: BDX

Varian Medical Systems, Inc.

Fri, 16 Nov 2007 20:11:37

Varian Medical Systems, Inc. is a manufacturer of medical devices and software for treating cancer and other medical conditions with radiotherapy, radiosurgery, proton therapy, and brachytherapy. The company supplies software for managing comprehensive cancer clinics, radiotherapy centers and medical oncology practices. Varian supplies tubes and digital detectors for X-ray imaging in medical, scientific, and industrial applications and also supplies X-ray imaging products for cargo screening and industrial inspection. I liked VAR's chart action and bought November 45 call options on 24 October in anticipation of a good earnings report on 25 October. Earnings were strong and price moved up to 49 quickly. New products appear likely to keep earnings growth strong over the coming quarters and the chart remains bullish.

Related Stocks: VAR

Covanta Holding Corporation

Fri, 16 Nov 2007 20:11:26

Covanta Holding Corporation owns and operates more than 30 large-scale energy-from-waste facilities. Most facilities are in the United States, but the company is growing internationally. I liked chart action on 24 October and bought November 25.00 call options that became profitable after CVA announced strong earnings growth on 25 October. CVA does two things that the world needs - improves the environment and creates energy. It has held up well during the overall market decline of November and should do better when the current turbulence ends.

Related Stocks: CVA

Videsh Sanchar Nigam Ltd

Sat, 03 Nov 2007 16:11:48

Videsh Sanchar Nigam Ltd is a fast growing Indian telecom operator. I've been looking for an opportunity to get back in and I am betting that the lower acceleration band where the decline stopped on 1 November will hold. VSL's newest project is a $200 million investment in an intra-Asia submarine cable system that will link Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan with an additional connection to the Philippines and, potentially, Vietnam. VSL owns a collection of important assets and seems to have good focus.

Related Stocks: TCL

Hutchison Telecom

Sat, 03 Nov 2007 16:11:00

Hutchison Telecommunications International Limited is a global provider of telecommunication services. HTX offers mobile and fixed-line telecommunication services in Hong Kong, and operates or is rolling out mobile telecommunication services in Macau, India, Israel, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Ghana, Indonesia and Vietnam. HTX closed above the upper acceleration band on 2 November and price often moves up sharply from this position.

Related Stocks: HTX

Sinovac Biotech Ltd

Sat, 03 Nov 2007 16:11:31

Sinovac Biotech Ltd. is a China-based biopharmaceutical company that focuses on the research, development, manufacture and commercialization of vaccines that protect against human infectious diseases. The company swung sharply from loss-making to profitable on increased sales in the first half of 2007. SVA is at the edge of its upper acceleration band and I am taking a chance that it is ready to move up sharply. The setup is not perfect because Percent-R is not rising, but I wanted to gain more China exposure and I like the business.

Related Stocks: SVA

Videsh Sanchar Nigam Limited

Thu, 01 Nov 2007 11:11:38

Videsh Sanchar Nigam Limited is a fast growing telecommunications company headquartered in India. Price has respected the lower band shown in the accompanying chart for months, so with the recent test, I am adding a position in anticipation of the trend turning up. It is early to take the position based upon the negative trend of the Percent-R study, but I think support is durable at current levels.

Related Stocks: TCL

Downey Financial Corporation

Thu, 01 Nov 2007 10:11:03

Downey Financial Corporation is the holding company for Downey Savings and Loan Association. The company operates in California and Arizona and has significant exposure to residential mortgages and real estate development. I learned about DSL from a negative article in Barron's. The company is likely to do poorly over the next few quarters, and the chart pattern reveals little support at current levels.

Related Stocks: DWNFQ

Cisco Systems, Inc.

Tue, 30 Oct 2007 05:10:24

Cisco is a world leader in computer networking and communications infrastructure. The stock closed above its upper band on 29 October and this development often leads to upside acceleration.

Related Stocks: CSCO

Archer Daniels Midland

Tue, 23 Oct 2007 20:10:07

Archer Daniels Midland is a major agricultural commodities company in the United States. ADM began correcting in May 2006 and is relatively near its multi-month low. I like to own stocks just as they poke above the upper band shown on the daily chart as they often accelerate upwards from such a position.

Related Stocks: ADM

FirstFed Financial

Tue, 16 Oct 2007 18:10:18

FirstFed Financial is a California bank with a lot of option adjustable-rate mortgages according to George Putnam of The Turnaround Letter. George expects FED to have increasing problems with defaults in the coming quarters. The weekly chart suggest that the trend is down from current levels. I figure FED should fall through 40 at least.

Related Stocks: FED

TEPPCO Partners, L.P.

Tue, 16 Oct 2007 18:10:49

TEPPCO Partners, L.P. operates energy pipelines in the United States. The stock has a P.E. of 15 and a dividend yield of 7 percent. Since 2000, TPP has rallied strongly after correcting deeply. It looks like the recent deep correction is ending and the strong rally segment is starting now.

Related Stocks: TPP

Advanced Semiconductor Engineering Incorporated

Thu, 11 Oct 2007 13:10:10

Advanced Semiconductor Engineering Incorporated broke down from its sideways range on 11 October and I decided to stand aside. The longer-term view remains interesting, but there are better choices today.

Related Stocks: ASX

Natural Gas Services Group

Thu, 11 Oct 2007 13:10:42

Natural Gas Services Group turned up 6 August into an overall uptrend. NGS reversed a correction from 1 October by rallying sharply the past two days. I doubled the size of my position on 11 October.

Related Stocks: NGS

The9 Limited

Thu, 11 Oct 2007 13:10:39

The9 Limited develops and operates online games in the People's Republic of China. Recently, 800,000 people played the company's World of Warcraft online game at the same time. The trend of the stock seems to have reversed up on 4 October and analysts are targeting a price of 47.50.

Related Stocks: NCTY

China Yuchai International Limited

Thu, 11 Oct 2007 13:10:33

China Yuchai International Limited makes and sells diesel engines in China. The P.E. Ratio of CYD is under 15 and it pays a small dividend. The monthly chart shows that price completed a substantial correction in July 2006 and a modest correction in August 2007. The technical configuration of the daily chart supports expecting upside progress soon.

Related Stocks: CYD

BHP Billiton PLC

Wed, 10 Oct 2007 21:10:20

BBL is the London listed ADR of the mining company with big interests in many important metals. The stock has been rallying nicely and I decided to get back in after foolishly standing aside a few weeks ago.

Related Stocks: BBL

High Income Opportunity Fund

Wed, 10 Oct 2007 21:10:50

High Income Opportunity Fund quit doing right on September 25th. I decided to get out while I still had a profit.

Related Stocks: HIO

Nokia Corporation

Wed, 10 Oct 2007 21:10:04

Lots of people carry cell phones made by Nokia Corporation. I was whipsawed out of a position recently and now I am back. The stock has been trending up steadily since 2004 and the company seems to be making the right moves to keep the rally going.

Related Stocks: NOK

Empresas ICA

Mon, 08 Oct 2007 21:10:14

Empresas ICA operates as an engineering, procurement, construction, and infrastructure management company primarily in Latin America. ICA has been in a steady uptrend since 2002 and revenue and profits are rising.

Related Stocks: ICA

Advanced Semiconductor Engineering Incorporated

Mon, 08 Oct 2007 20:10:31

Technology shares have been doing well lately. Advanced Semiconductor Engineering Incorporated is the world's largest semiconductor assembly and test company. Based in Taiwan, ASX has a P.E. of 15 and rising revenues. Price sold off sharply July-September, but has begun a sharp recovery. Price traded sideways over the past 9 days and I'm betting that the sideways action will resolve to the upside.

Related Stocks: ASX

Braskem S.A.

Mon, 08 Oct 2007 20:10:38

Braskem S.A. is a Brazilian petrochemical company with rising revenue and earnings that gives me exposure to the industrial segment and Latin America. BAK has been in an uptrend since the summer of 2006.

Related Stocks: BAK

Videsh Sanchar Nigam

Thu, 04 Oct 2007 13:10:48

VSL remains one of my favorite stocks, but recent weakness hit a stop. I am looking to reenter.

Related Stocks: TCL

Babcock and Brown Infrastructure

Thu, 04 Oct 2007 13:10:54

Babcock and Brown Infrastructure is an Australian company that owns energy transmission and distribution facilities, ports, coal terminals, etc in a variety of countries. The American Depository Receipt pays a dividend of about 8 percent. I think infrastructure is a good market segment and the steady income is nice too.

Related Stocks: BCKBF

Aircastle Limited

Thu, 04 Oct 2007 13:10:46

Aircastle Limited leases airplanes to airlines, a growing business. AYR sold off after announcing a follow-on public offering of 10 million shares and that a fund was going to sell 10 million shares to the public. Price retraced over 50 percent of its gains since mid-August and is beginning to look oversold. I like the fact that the company is using proceeds to retire debt. I also like the fact that AYR pays a dividend of 7.90 percent. When the offering price was announced at 31.75, buyers stepped up on October 4. As a matter of fact, almost 9 million shares traded against an average of 350,000. I'm looking for a swing above 36 in the coming weeks.

Related Stocks: AYR

Natural Gas Services Group

Fri, 28 Sep 2007 22:09:39

Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. provides compressors to the natural gas industry in the United States. I foolishly held this stock when it fell off a cliff in July. The rally back is testing resistance from June now, so it looks like the dead money is coming back to life. The thing that keeps me inpsired about NGS is that its business is growing fast. In August NGS reported earnings were up 120 percent.

Related Stocks: NGS

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P.

Fri, 28 Sep 2007 22:09:36

People had trouble paying their power bills this summer because it was so hot. The air conditioners were running full blast and the utilities were busy burning coal from Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. to make it happen. ARLP did not enjoy a rally with the summer heat. Instead, the stock ran into strong resistance from previous chart congestion. However, the rising lows of recent weeks suggests that resistance will soon fail and price will rally higher over the coming weeks. In the meantime, ARLP is paying a dividend of 6.70 percent.

Related Stocks: ARLP

Headwaters Incorporated

Fri, 28 Sep 2007 22:09:45

Headwaters Incorporated operates in three segments: Construction Materials, Coal Combustion Products, and Alternative Energy. The Alternative Energy segment converts coal and heavy oil to liquid fuels. The stock has been a big loser over the past year, but now has a PE of 5.84 and the weekly candle chart is showing signs of a bottom. Notice the long lower shadows on the candles from July through September. These shadows suggest that support is strong at current levels. I've taken an initial position and will add if price establishes an uptrend. The construction materials segment of the company may not contribute much for a while, but the coal combustion products and alternative energy segments could get interesting.

Related Stocks: HW

Legacy Reserves LP

Fri, 28 Sep 2007 22:09:12

Legacy Reserves LP fell almost 40 percent to its low in August. The sharp rebound suggests that the low is in. I bought as price approached a 50 percent retracement of the advance, a level where price often finds support. LGCY is an oil and natural gas limited partnership that operates in West Texas and New Mexico. The company is a consolidator that frequently buys smaller companies. Management expects to keep growing. Current dividend yield is 7.5 percent.

Related Stocks: LGCY

Korea Electric Power

Fri, 28 Sep 2007 22:09:00

The Korea Electric Power Corporation controls 100 percent of the power grid in Korea and has projects in 10 other countries including China, Cambodia, Mongolia, Indonesia, and the Philippines. KEP is a mature operator with successful projects across Asia. The only bad thing I've heard is that management has considered buying a utility in the United States. The chart shows a history of rallying from the lower trend line to the upper trend line. The rally appears to be in progress and technical studies are confirming good opportunity for price to keep rising. I may add to my position over the coming weeks. Unllike many utilities, KEP pays a measly dividend of less than 2 percent.

Related Stocks: KEP

Enerplus Resources Fund

Fri, 28 Sep 2007 21:09:44

Enerplus Resources Fund has paid me a nice dividend every month while I waited for it to recover from my badly timed entry. The trend is up now, so I am content to keep holding and collecting the 10 percent dividend.

Related Stocks: ERF

Infosys Technologies Ltd

Fri, 28 Sep 2007 21:09:31

Infosys Technologies Ltd. is a global technology services company based in Bangalore, India that consistently ranks high in customer satisfaction. I held when I should have sold in August, but a recent series of higher lows suggests that the trend is turning up. I like the way INFY does business, so I will keep holding for now.

Related Stocks: INFY

DWS Multi-Market Income Trust

Fri, 28 Sep 2007 21:09:58

The DWS Multi-Market Income Trust is paying a dividend of 8.3 percent and trading at a discount of almost 4 percent to net asset value. I doubled up my position in July, just before price fell almost 25 percent in August. Ouch. KMM has recovered most of the losses and I have enjoyed the meaty dividend payment for 3 months now. KMM shows a strong tendency to advance persistently after a seasonal low, so I am going to hold until I see signs of the season changing.

Related Stocks: KMM

Western Asset High Income Opportunity Fund

Fri, 28 Sep 2007 21:09:46

The Western Asset High Income Opportunity Fund is trading at an 8 percent discount to its net asset value and paying a dividend of 8.5 percent. I doubled my initial position in August and have enjoyed the price appreciation and monthly dividend payment since. I prefer to invest in operating companies, so may take profits on HIO and move the money to something likely to grow faster. I only bought the fund because it was trading at such a deep discount in August.

Related Stocks: HIO