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24-Dec-09

Markets Heading Higher

As I outlined in the most recent issue of my weekly newsletter EPIC Insights, markets are progressing just as I predicted. With only five trading days remaining this year, economic data is light, volume is low, and sentiment is in control. Following the game plan of the past few months, sentiment continues to drive prices higher as every decline is met with buying interest.

After last week's decline the bears were convinced that stock prices would quickly succumb to gravity, but instead prices are higher. The EPIC Index (EPIC) moved higher each day this week, has reclaimed the psychologically important 10,000 level, and is well positioned to end this year at an annual high. Finally, with the NASDAQ, S&P 500, DAX, CAC, Russell 2000, and Dow Transports all hitting new highs this week, the strength is broad. Considering that nine of the 14 components of EPIC have reached new annual highs during December, we are witnessing a base to push higher as opposed to a topping process.

Many investors continue to question the durability of this rise and believe once the calendar turns to 2010, markets will react much differently. Although I remain cautious of chasing stocks that are not cheap in an environment where government intervention is bound to cause future problems, we must resist the urge to allow our own biases to taint our judgment. Looking exclusively at the technical picture, the current environment resembles a consolidation pattern that will lead higher as opposed to a peak awaiting a decline. There are plenty of things we can worry about, some of which will be outlined in next week's commentary when I disclose my predictions for 2010, but those who focus only on the negative are missing an excellent trading opportunity.

I maintain my opinion that over the next decade prices will remain unchanged, but within that time we shall see many opportunities to trade for quick gains. This is one of those times. Equity markets are strong and will remain that way with prices moving at least 10% higher over the coming months.

Knowing we cannot always look toward the past in order to predict the future, for the remainder of the year that is what I will do. Volume will remain light and prices heading north. Those looking to give their portfolios a holiday gift should trade accordingly.

 

Posted at 06:23 in Market Report  |   Permalink   |  Top

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