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30-Jan-08

vdsi

Holding Rationale for VDSI.

Revenues are rising somewhat parabolically since 2004. Operating margins have grown from 5% in 03 to 28% in the ttm and show no sign of cresting yet.  

 

The are expected to grow sales 32% and E 34% next year. This on top of the 97% E growth they averaged the past 5 yrs. Priced at 18, its 30 p/e is very attractive for such grwoth.

 

No debt for this small cap is another big plus in this environment that is unkind to levered companies. 

Tagged Stocks: VDSI 

 

SNHY

Holding Rationale for SNHY.

E has grown sequentionally yoy for the past 6 qtrs, operating margins have expanded from 5% in 03 to almost 20% in the ttm, and still haven't shown signs of peaking.  SNHY mgns far exceed competitors PH and SVT.

Revs are growing shaprly since 2002, no sign of cresting.

 

No debt, and p/s of 2.22.  and a  p/e of 16 at 21. Considering its E growth the past 5 yrs averaged 71%, and are expected to grow E another 10% next yr, there is room for multiple expansion to 20x or more in 2008.

At 21, it also carries a 1.7% div.

Tagged Stocks: SNHY 

 

Diode

Holding Rationale for DIOD.

Rev growth over the past 5 rys has been impressive - last 6 qtrs have shown meaningful E growth, and E growth the past 5 yrs has averaged 48%. E is expected to growth 20% next yr, and carry a p/e of 16, priced at 23.

 

Of its competitors, FCS, IRF, VSH, DIOD's operating mgns are clearly superiour at 15% - although squeezed from peak mgns of 18.8% in 2005.

 

Debt to equity for this $900 m small cap is a bit high, and their levered free cash flow is slightly negative at -14 m 

 

All told, valuations are reasonable based on past and continued growth and healthy margins

Tagged Stocks: DIOD 

 

Patterson

Holding Rationale for PTEN.

The big knock on PTEN is declining sales growth in 2007 adn 2008. Peak revenues were seen in 2006 at 2.5 B. But they have been agressive in the stock buyback shrining flow 5% since 2005

 

 Earnings are set to decline 37% in 2007 adn 28% in 2008 possibly signaling loss of mkt share and pressure on margins which is hard to imagine. Gross margins in TTM is 46% and oper mgns are 35%, down slighty from 2006, but very healthy adn  very much in line with competitors GW, HP and NBR.  

ROE did drop sharply from 46% to 27% in 2007. But even 27% is robust. No debt to speak of, its a cash cow generator.

If one can look beyond the earnings recession it is in, its trailing pe of 6-8, is attractive for a company that grew E an average of 119% in the past 5 yrs - assuming its revs stabilize and such. There is time for the company to work on those issues before becoming unduly stressed.

HP is the leading taking mkt share, PTEN must figure a way to be competitive.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tagged Stocks: PTEN 

 

Barnes

Holding Rationale for B.

last 4 qtrs have show incrementally meaningful earnings growth.   Reveneues have grown  as well every yr since 2002 - although ploddingly.

 

gross and operating mgns are healthy and in line with its competitors AA and GWW

 

At 26, Price to sales is about 1:1, they pay a 2.2% div. Most attractive are its p/e valuations. It's p/e of 13.5 is very attractive for a company that grew earnings 26% for the last 5 yrs and should growh earnings at or above that level this year. Morevoer, they have been beating expectations last 4 qtrs in a row.

Tagged Stocks: B 

 

22-Jan-08

NPD Watchlist idea

Watchlist Idea for NPD.

A CHICESE DRUGSTORE COMPANY. Must wait for q! earnings, and see if I can get some finanical data for past 3 years, without the DD, I may do nothing.

Tagged Stocks: NPD 

 

18-Jan-08

USBE

Holding Rationale for USBE.

This is a pure ethanol play. They are being acquired by Verasun. I entered on a pullback to the Nov 29 acqwueistion announcment around 8. Skeptics are criti al of ethanol producers with the thought that they are expanding capacity beyond the ethoanl demand curve which will pressure ethonol production margins. This is a risk. However, the gov't madated an increase in ethanol usage in 2008 through 2022 in December 2007. As such, fears about excess capacity may be overstated. The company has a mkt cap of 620 m at 8 and a p/b of 1 and p/s of 1.2. They have 79 m in cash, 51 m of Cash flow from ops. The knock on USBE is the 347 in debt, and a debt to equity of 0.55, leaving them with 327 m in levered free cash flow. Still, revs are expected to increase to 100% 1.18 b in 2008, and E is expectted to grow 94% from 35 cents to 68 cents.

Tagged Stocks: USBE 

 

MER

Holding Rationale for MER.

Thsi is the only leading financial stock I am playing in 2008, whether it be for a trade or a year or more, the jury is out. MER had about $40billion in cdo and subrprime exposure. Between Q3 adn Q4, they have had writedowns approximating $24,. The new CEO John Thain cleaning house. There is good long term support in the mid to upper 40's and I am comfortable with my entry at 50.

Tagged Stocks: MER 

 

adre

Holding Rationale for ADRE.

Simply put, this is an emeerging marekt fund. Emerging marekts are in a much better postion to weather financial turmoil than in the past such as 1997 and 1994. Still, the weekly chart suggests prices could weaken anther 5%-10% down to 42.50-45.00 before finding solid intermediate term support. Taking the long view with a 3-5 year horizon, I am comfortable owning this under 48.

Tagged Stocks: ADRE 

 

abp

Holding Rationale for AXAS.

At 3.40 ABP has a market cap of 166m and p/b under 3. Total cash is 13m, and total debt is 35m. Cash flow from ops is a positive 10m. Revenues are to be 89m in 07 growing 24% to 110m in 08. Earnigns are expected to grow 190% in FY 2008 from 12 cents to 35 cents. 46,000 acres in wy with 10 wells, 100% wi, 1 bcf proved, 93% undeveloped 33,000 acres in W TX with 75% wi, 68 bcf proved, and 53% undeveloped, S TX has 7500 acrs 94% wi, 30bcf proved, 41 wells and 43% undeveloped Total acres 86,000, 220 wells, and 99 bcf proved. I do not know how their reserves have grown over the past 3 years, nor do I know their 2008-09 business plan as yet.

Tagged Stocks: AXAS 

 
 

 

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