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18-Jan-08
Market report: 2008-01-18.
Signs of an inescapable recession in the US economy crept into the data this January when the December manufacturing survey fell into contractionary territory and the rate of change in the unemployment rate jumped 0.3% to 5.0% in December. The secular bull market ended the week of Jan 14 2008 when the August 2007 lows in the SP500 were taken out to the downside. This shift from bull to bear is going to change my strategy significantly in 2008-2009. In the second half of 2007 and onset of 2008, because of the unprecedented central bank stimulus being provided, the strategy was to stay overweighted in growth stocks. With the prospect of a US recession looming, a more defensive approach will be warranted, and I certainly be looking at acquiring value stocks . I may also look to healthcare (as they seem to be up more than 5% this ytd) and emerging markets. Thsi will require that I dump some of the recent stocks acquired such s flex, chs, sirf etc. I will almost certainly be holding NFEI, CXPO, USBE, MER, ADRE,PACR. ALY, ABP and EWS for a year or longer regardless of the broad market climate.
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