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OK i'm officially addicted to my stockcharts subscription. there's so many new ways to analyze data now. and when it comes to the stock market, I'm a dataphile.

I've built a comparison between the SPY/QQQQ and the relative performance of its leveraged ETFs SSO/SDS and QLD/QID.

Both show inconsistent or not-so-clear sentiment seperately.

Then I compared QQQQ and SPY to their implied volatilites VIX and QQV (by the way, its weird that the Nasdaq ETF gets its own implied volatility index, but not the SPY, the most active stock in the world)

Then I mixed both speculative and the Implied volatilities together and here's the result. There were quick volatile spikes in relative ratios of leveraged ETF's and the implied volatility indexes that signaled the beginning of this bear market back then.

Now we're seeing the inverse signal, some signs of green in the air are showing up.

Could be a coincidence, I know... but still interesting nontheless.

OK so I got a subscription to stockcharts.com last night... good stuff.

No intraday cumulative ANYTHING - but still. >:-/

After hours and hours of work, here's my indicators:

And some SPY/QQQQ/IWM intraday/daily charts with sentimental/momentum indicators as well:

OK we're showing pretty good signs of a new rally... but after every prolonged sell off there are key resistance levels that are looked at like hurdles and could provide great shorting opportunities once they're cracked. This could be even better as a "diving  board" for weak stocks/other ETF's close to their 52 week lows that are hovering around their nearest key resistance levels as well.

So the strategy is to short above resistance levels once we crack the nearest key resistance in the SPY, 90, then cover a few days after the stock broke down to a new 52W low. or an even safer exit is to cover as soon as the indexes start heading back up while the stock is still at below its previous 52W low.

here they are:

Of course, looking at the weakest money flows to identify the better picks among the group. 3 of these are also ETFs and one of those is a regional Banking ETF - KRE.

And a reminder that a peek at the historical chart might save you from shorting a stock that is too close to a major major support level like Citigroup's at 3.05 which 19 years later provided a major support level last Friday the 11-21-08

This is the 50day moving average of the ratio, not the actual ratio, which is hidden because its too noisy. Here's the link for quick access in stockcharts.com

The put/call ratio itself swings from bullish to neutral to bearish sentiment in the options market and by itself does not show very good clear visual signals of sentiment - some would disagree, I know, but this indicator just makes those sentiment swings in options way more clear visually.

If you look closely at our last slide again, notice the little spike there in the middle of our bear slaughter sell off there, it just kept sliding at the same pace after that spike, which is what I consider a good exit signal after a few moves in the same direction. Today we also had this spike - could this be it? the end of the sell off a beginning of a new bear rally or is it another head fake? we'll see.

So I looked at some of the biggest decliners today to find out what is going against the indexes and noticed a possible theme of flight FROM safety stocks to the risky financials.

One of the best examples of this is CPB, a once almost ultrashort mimicking "safety" stock now turned into a sudden bear feast:

Health care, the best performing sector in October, got absolutely crushed this week more than all other sectors.

Basic materials of course comes out first *cough*Jim Rogers *cough* and most importantly: the dollar immediately tanked back to 1.31 euro/usd with such volatility that yesterday was one of biggest declines in the dollar ever.

There it is, my master plan for a DGP swing trade. it'd be interesting how this turns out. There could be a few dozen variables that could annihilate this trade - mostly extremely good or bad global news.

Its been a while since I made a good swing trade, hopefully this will be my next one.

              GO GOLD GO!

Geithner schmiethner - Insurers are spiking up like (tax payer) money is falling from the sky today.

This rally also prevented the week from closing under 2002 bear market low.

The price action fireworks were so fast that it made me curious how fast can funds move the market now that liquidity is so low? can we rally/tank 20$ a day on the spy now?

With all the hoopla surrounding the investment giants/gurus showing "signs of confidence" in these greedy financial giants of wall street - they just keep tanking - which is EXACTLY like what happened in the 1930's

I guess its the flocking to safety bet

I recently noticed this aweful flaw in Prophet charts:

Oy Vey!

So to say the least - don't trust Prophet charts!

And here is what happened yesterday ^

and on a side note - the unemployment level would sink us into depression if GM and F collapse into their own failing misery. that was pretty much the theme yesterday afternoon and apparently today since we made a fresh new low.