Covestor - medicvz Blog

Thoughts for next week 4/28

Sun, 27 Apr 2008 23:04:25

I wouldn’t expect much to happen before the fed meets this week, and as predicting the market reaction post fed-move may be more difficult than ever, it would be hard to place bets one way or another during the beginning of this week. A couple of things of note during chart work this evening. First both the IWM and QQQQ are improved technically. We broke this years downtrend line in the IWM on Friday, putting in a higher-high from the March lows, but have yet to top the high set in Feb. The Q’s topped out at their overhead resistance downtrend line and while acting well, could stand to break that downtrend line (from Nov. high).

I will be looking for some rotation out of “stuff” and into the fins, retail and tech- specifically the semi’s. The majority of charts that are beginning to show signs of turning up are from these sectors, and my plan will be to look to play these names rather than press the oil and gas names. However, i will not ignore the O and G plays should those names continue to work. One name I like there, which is working on a consolidation is *NBR.

Fins: C, GS, MS, (higher volume accumulation days, lower volume dist. days), IYG (trend-break) SCHW

Tech: A, AKAM, IBM, JNPR, KLAC, MSFT (very well defined risk/reward), NSM, PSEM, QLGC, TER

Retail: BBBY, BIG, COST, DDS, KSS, RTH

International: Both the EEM (trend break) and FXI (pennant)

Comments welcome.

Long: GS, XLF, KLAC, SMH, EEM

Related Stocks: A, AKAM, BBBY, BIG, C, COST, DDS, EEM, FXI, GS, IBM, IYG, JNPR, KLAC, KSS, MS, MSFT, NBR, NSM, PSEM, QLGC, RTH, SCHW, TER

What I would have expected on the open

Thu, 17 Apr 2008 23:04:04

Here’s what I would have thought the open would have looked like... which made me rase an eyebrow... the fact that it didn’t and now the dippers are stepping in is bullish.

Trust the ramp?

Thu, 17 Apr 2008 22:04:33

Dippsters might get an opportunity today... and will need to to make this mornings move real.

Setups for tomorrow

Mon, 14 Apr 2008 21:04:20

Some strong technical set ups for 4.15

COCO (Education Resources)- pennant -decreasing volume

SPWR (Electronics- Scientific and Technical)- Pennant

BG (Food and Beverage- Farm Products Breakout- volume not great

CNX (Metals and Mining- Industrial Metals and Minerals) Cup waiting on a handle

ENDP (Drug Manufactures) 1-2-3-4

ATW (Oil and Gas Drilling) breakout

LAYN (Materials and Construction- Heavy Construction)- Pennant decreasing volume

SYNA (Computer Software & Services- Business Software) Penat

NVEC (Semis) Flag

AIXD (Diversified Services- Biz Managment)Pennant- volume drying up

JRCC (Metals and Mining) high vol accumulation and tried to break... coiling up now

IPCS (Telecom- WIreless) High vol accumulation with consolidation

SIGA (Drug Manufactures)
PHHM (Materials and Construction- Manufactured housing) THIN pennant.

FMC( Chemicals- Major) Pennant with volume coming in. High W-bottom

X- (Metals) High volume move- light volume consolidation with penant forming

BIDU (Internet- Information provider) pulled back and tested support on light volume

Related Stocks: ATW, BG, BIDU, CIDM, CNX, COCO, ENDP, FMC, IPCS, JRCC, LAYN, NVEC, SIGA, SPWRA, SYNA, X

Setups for tomorrow

Mon, 14 Apr 2008 13:04:22

*COCO (Education Resources)- pennant -decreasing volume*SPWR (Electronics- Scientific and Technical)- Pennant*BG (Food and Beverage- Farm Products Breakout- volume not great*CNX (Metals and Mining- Industrial Metals and Minerals) Cup waiting on a handle*ENDP (Drug Manufactures) 1-2-3-4*ATW (Oil and Gas Drilling) breakout*LAYN (Materials and Construction- Heavy Construction)- Pennant decreasing volume*SYNA (Computer Software & Services- Business Software) Penat*NVEC (Semis) Flag*AIXD (Diversified Services- Biz Managment)Pennant- volume drying up*JRCC (Metals and Mining) high vol accumulation and tried to break... coiling up now*IPCS (Telecom- WIreless) High vol accumulation with consolidation*SIGA (Drug Manufactures)  *PHHM (Materials and Construction- Manufactured housing) THIN pennant.*FMC( Chemicals- Major) Pennant with volume coming in. High W-bottom*X- (Metals) High volume move- light volume consolidation with penant forming *BIDU (Internet- Information provider) pulled back and tested support on light volume

Related Stocks: BIDU, SPWRA

Sunday Sessions

Mon, 14 Apr 2008 04:04:49

I had to catch myself Friday. For the first time in a while we had seen a pop in the market (like the one on April 1) NOT give its gains back. Perhaps the most bullish thing for the market since the end of December last year was that we didn’t give up our gains.

SO we had a little rally Thursday, and we poised to open higher on Friday. Then boom... like big giant rain cloud, GE opened their mouth. GE never misses. Always guides in line... but Friday that all changed.

But did we really sell off because of GE? Or the idea that the expectation of a recovery going forward was unclear. Much of what our “we’re probably at a bottom” thesis was based on is the idea that there is some clarity about what is ahead. GE was unable to verify that Q3 and Q4 are going to see better earnings, and down the market went.

So what can we learn from this? It is extremely important to stay flexible and open-minded in this environment. It is also important to be able to move aside quickly if the market decides that this current round of earnings reports is the next shoe. We could easily retest the lows here. Volatility is going to increase as the big banks, and some big tech report this week. It is not wise to hold during earnings, and not wise to try to game the market. Maybe IBM beats? Maybe GS guides lower. Either way the market is going to have violent reactions in either direction. Best we can do is wait on the beach for a better wave. Sure there are those that will make money in this environment, both long and short. Even the best names, which we’ve been able to identify (Indy oil and Gas), may shake before heading up again. There are compelling arguments for the bulls AND the bears here, but there is no room for getting cute or being a hero. Lets focus our energy on watching, and learning, and not put too much capital at risk in EITHER direction.

Pass the Chips

Sun, 13 Apr 2008 21:04:56

This weekend’s chart work was interesting, and I think the obvious strength is in the oil and gas… mostly indy oil and gas… with the names we’ve been talking about. I don’t know if i’ve really heard anyone talking about this yet but I think the Semi’s deserve a second look. Not something we normally talk about as ramping or moving out… or leading the market, but I’m hypothesizing these things have been on the move since March… and they are moving higher. That said… they’re whippy… you hear it all the time “*AMD awful! Chips down 3%!” and its true.... but look AT the *SMH. It had a break of its wedge higher in March and has been in an up channel with higher lows ever since. Some other names… *XLNX (consolidating trendline break) *KLAC has been terrible… but has been moving higher since march and is now consolidating a trendline break. *BRCM (which i know many here have played) Trendline break… started moving out in March.... *MPWR Consolidating a trendline break *MU WORKING on a trendline break (not there yet) but had HUGE accumulation off its almost exact double bottom (late march) *NSM Trendline break… when did it start? March. *SNDK- not quite as strong, but poking it’s head up. *CY- W-bottom now forming a pennant. More names… *ADI, *CAVM, *ISIL, *SIMG, *WEDC.... all same story… been moving up slowly since March and have either broken… or working on trendline breaks.These names may not be technically set up to go today… or tomorrow… but I think there is a clear trend developing and some of these names have a LONG way to go on the upside. Personally I will continue to watch how this develops and hopefully add some exposure here… but I’m really not in the mood to do much as the market has some air above it AND below it.... and we’re going to resolve that one way or another here with earnings....Some set ups for today…Oil and gas: *NGS, *DVN, *NE, *PDE, *RIG, *RRCSteel: *X, *STLDAg Chem still working, have a look at *TNH pennant break and 50dma recapture*BIDU may be offering an entry as it came back to it’s previous resistance/now support.Long: *RRC

Related Stocks: AMD, BIDU, RIG, RRC, SNDK

BIDU 4/12/2008

Sat, 12 Apr 2008 21:04:22

Support at 280. Stock has had a low volume pullback to that level. Risk reward is good here. 50dma is flattening out/curling up.

Related Stocks: BIDU

Sympathy play for solar run

Sat, 12 Apr 2008 19:04:44

The story: Solar derivative play. Once the solar panels generate the power, something has to store it.

Technicals: Stock is currently resting after a monster run from a higher W-shaped bottom. Rest/pullback is on lighter volume indicating that strong hands continue to hold the stock. Stock was under clear accumulation from end of March.

Related Stocks: ENER

Ideas for next week

Sun, 30 Mar 2008 14:03:30

To piggy-back on Q’s Asia theme... the *EWS looks good also (Singapore) I welcome your thoughts on any of these names. Long AAPL.Faves- *TECUA (Materials and Construction)*KEX*AAPL*AFL *AW*BHS- Pennant*BRCM (banned list-uugh)- Trendline break *CAT*CSX*EMR*ERTS *ESRX*FAST*FDX*GIS *HAS- Pennant*ISRG*K *KSU*LEN*LIFC*MDR*MON*NBR*NEU*PG*RIMM*TSS*WWY- Gum... who knew...  *X

Related Stocks: AAPL, CAT, EWS, ISRG, MON, PG, RIMM

Set Ups for 3/24

Sat, 22 Mar 2008 09:03:12

*AIRM (Transports- Air Service) *THIN* Broke out last week and then spent two days consolidating its move, then gapped higher and is now probing minor resistance in the 47.50/48 area. Accumulation volume has been higher than distribution and has recently broken its downtrend line. SEE CHART 47.15/44.30

REITS- As scary as real estate seems- it seems like some of these names made their bottom in Jan of 08 and are now making a turn up with W bottoms, trend-line breaks, inverse head and shoulders... plenty of names here to choose from.ResidentialAIV- Possible higher W-bottom going in beginning in Dec of ‘07AVB- Breakout on volume all last week. Clear support at 100.BRE- Breakout on ave volume. Support at 45.19CPT- Breakout with support in 52 areaESS- Breakout with support in the 110 areaMAA- Quasi Cup and Handle from Nov of 2007 with the pivot break last week. Stop at 51.61UDR- Consolidated in Jan/Feb and then has been breaking out over the last couple of weeks. Might be a chase here as next resistance level is 26.

RetailCDR- Broke-out now with support in the 12 area.CLI- Anticipatory add here... may follow others. Needs 37.22 with volume for a clean break EQY- Anticipatory add- Double bottom needs over 24.37 for clean break GGP TCO KIM- Trendline break on volumeHIW- Anticipatory add- needs 31.76Diversified- EXR- Breakout on volume- might be a bit extended, but cleared Oct high of 16.63, which could be used as a stop/support.PLD- Trendline break with volumeRetailGME- Trend-line break, volume has been coming in and now needs to move over 50.19 to confirm break to the upsideSHLD- Has been under accumulation- poked its head above the downtrend line.EBAY- Trendline breakBIG- AnticipatoryWMT- Friday’s big green bar sure doesnt look like something you see in a big lumbering stock like WMT, but there it is... must be respected and its a CLEAR breakout over resistance.TLB- Under heavy accumulation and needs to rest a bit. Watch for a set up.TJX- Broke to all time highs 33.60 is now support Semi’sINTC- Argument could be made for a pennant break to the upside here. Stock is under accumulation SEE CHART AMAT- Has been awesome but running into some overhead resistance at 21.75 areaXLNX- Moving out and consolidating above resistance. Stop could be at 23.39TER- Consolidating gap higher- add here on a move over 12.73LLTC- What AMAT looked like 3 weeks agoRegional BanksNortheast- MTB, NPBCMidwest- MI, USB, CRBC, CBCMid-Atlantic- BBT, UCBIBanking Saving/Loan- HCBKMoney Center Banks- STI, BAC, PNCMISC:Materials/Construction- RYL, MTH, BZH, UFPIFinancial Services- AMPWholesale Drugs- HLFManufacturing- BC, SNHYSoftware- ORCL, SXEConsumer Non-durable- COH, NKE, PGConsumer Durable- MATComputer Hardware- IBMDrugs- JNJ, GILDFinancial Services- MS, AXPTransports- EXPD, CHRW, BNI, CSX, AIRM, KEXLeisure restaurants- CMG, DRITelecom- CIEN, PTNRHealth Services- ZMHFood/Beverage- KO, PEP, GIS, WWYWholesale- GWWDiversified Services- PFWD

Related Stocks: BAC, COH, EBAY, JNJ, KO, MS, NOV, ORCL, PEP, WMT

Results from last week

Sat, 22 Mar 2008 08:03:50

Crazy week in the market. Most of the setup were not executed or confirmed as a transition out of the commodities and into the FINS and Retail occurred. Lets have a look:Anticipatory*ABB (Industrial Electrical Equipment)- Trendline break here at the end of Feb. and now consolidating move with more green days than red, but distribution days have been on slightly heavier volume. 26.30/24.51Traded up to 26.30 and has sense technically broken down*APA (Indy Oil and Gas)- Battleground in this name continues as the sideways movement between 115 and 120 continues. If the march history continues, Monday will be a move up and possibly to a breakout. 120.56/115.23Trade never triggered.*AUY (Gold) Consolidated move up on average volume and then had a high volume move higher in Friday’s mess. 19.47/17.59Trade never triggered*ECA (Indy Oil and Gas) Acting very well, two high volume moves off support at 75. Break wasnt clean so this one stays as an anticipatory add. 79.38/75.85Trade never triggered. Stop taken at 75.*FTI (Oil and Gas Equip.) Was bought on Friday right up to its downtrend overhead resistance. Given the strength in a bad tape, I would be inclined to buy the break and then use the trendline as support and a stop. 59.26/53.62Trade never triggered*GTLS (Metal Fabrication) High volume break in Feb and then attempt higher was stopped. Been moving between 34 and 36 on decreasing volume. 36.19/33.00Trade never triggered*HK (Indy Oil and Gas) Trying really hard to chew threw resistance at 19. Whippy and this is another accumulation/distribution battleground stock. 19.12/18.17Trade never triggered*LKQX (Auto Parts Wholesale) Pop up in late Feb has been consolidating but looks to be under accumulation. Making a push up towards all time highs and a break over 23.66 would be new highs. 22.70/21.21Broke out with volume on Friday. Added.*MTL (Steel and Iron) Bounced right back from a rinse on 3/10 and saw good volume accumulation the rest of the week . 142.65/120.00Trade never triggered*OXY (Indy Oil and Gas) Like all the oil and gas plays, there is some selling in these names, but they are holding and putting in fairly easily seen resistance and support. There are some good risk/reward trades to be made here. OXY has a few things in its corner, clear support around 74, its in its upper Darvas box, and a break over the recent double top would mean blue skies. This one might need some time before the break, but patience may be worth it, keeping in mind that all of this is no longer valid on a break below 74. 80.83/74.33Trade never triggered *PQ (Indy Oil and Gas) Tried to break out got turned around in Friday’s mess. Similar chart to all the other indy oil and gas.16.60/15.00Trade never triggered*RRC (Indy Oil and Gas) Unlike the OTHER I O and G plays... this stock has seen higher volume accumlation but still has some lower volume selling days. 65.53/56.22 Trade never triggeredSID (Steel and Iron) Bought all week, though less volume than the sellers two weeks prior (caution). 41.98/35.60Trade never triggeredURBN (Apparel Stores) Working through some resistance from summer of 2005. In the near term, stock has been attacking the 31 level recently, and this week tried it on heavy volume. Was turned back friday (on high volume) but could be worth watching. 31.77/29.40Trade never triggered- Still set up.Trendline BreaksAIRM- 46.59/43.83Moving out on good volume. Added.GME- 47.46Still working on breaking out. SBS- Chart within a chart. Downward trend break on 2/27 and potentially come back to kiss that line goodbye several times. Add above 46, stop below... break would be 49.69.Trade never triggeredInterestingBBL- Bought all week stop at 61.21Broke down- trade never triggeredEXPO- Technically the breakout failed on Friday but was on light volume... worth watchingBig volume down day friday. Trade never triggeredBreakoutsBUCY Stop at 104.36BVN Stop at 81.37GGB Stop at 31.85These three broke down, the following two are still intact.HLF Stop at 46.04PTNR Stop at 21.70*SDA (Carne) Broke out on Tuesday/Wednesday and tried to sell off the rest of the week. Hammered hard and held where it needed to above the break (18.50). 19.93/18.52Still in an upchannel SQM Stop at 207.49ETF’sFXI (China) (SHORT) Might be a chase here but wow, down big on heavy volume Friday. Might be coming into some support here around 125. GDX (Gold Miners) Clean breakout over 55 though on light volume. ITB (Home Construction) Downward trend broken in Jan, tried to get lower again but put in a higher low on 3/10.SMH ( Semi) Wedge forming that is going to get resolved here one way or another soon. 29.62/28.26

Related Stocks: AUY, GDX, GME, MTL, RRC, SDA

Set Ups for next week

Sat, 15 Mar 2008 06:03:59

Greeting... Saturday Sessions.... Chart work while others in the house nap.... I changed the format a little bit this week and categorized things that caught my eye based on how I perceived them to be set up. I have included some price points, where i think a breakout may occur, or a stop/resistance exists. Hopefully this makes sense. (If it doesn't let me know). I didn't include charts this week, but can if you have specific questions about what I see in the set up. Actually have to make a disclosure... I am long of *SDA and have played it a little different than Q-man I was 1/3 with the FF add... then went 2/3 on the break. Pealing some off into the break is of course wise... (and probably prudent... and I will probably get stopped out for a break even... lol) Enjoy your weekendAnticipatory*ABB (Industrial Electrical Equipment)- Trendline break here at the end of Feb. and now consolidating move with more green days than red, but distribution days have been on slightly heavier volume. 26.30/24.51*APA (Indy Oil and Gas)- Battleground in this name continues as the sideways movement between 115 and 120 continues. If the march history continues, Monday will be a move up and possibly to a breakout. 120.56/115.23*AUY (Gold) Consolidated move up on average volume and then had a high volume move higher in Friday’s mess. 19.47/17.59*ECA (Indy Oil and Gas) Acting very well, two high volume moves off support at 75. Break wasnt clean so this one stays as an anticipatory add. 79.38/75.85*FTI (Oil and Gas Equip.) Was bought on Friday right up to its downtrend overhead resistance. Given the strength in a bad tape, I would be inclined to buy the break and then use the trendline as support and a stop. 59.26/53.62*GTLS (Metal Fabrication) High volume break in Feb and then attempt higher was stopped. Been moving between 34 and 36 on decreasing volume. 36.19/33.00*HK (Indy Oil and Gas) Trying really hard to chew threw resistance at 19. Whippy and this is another accumulation/distribution battleground stock. 19.12/18.17*LKQX (Auto Parts Wholesale) Pop up in late Feb has been consolidating but looks to be under accumulation. Making a push up towards all time highs and a break over 23.66 would be new highs. 22.70/21.21*MTL (Steel and Iron) Bounced right back from a rinse on 3/10 and saw good volume accumulation the rest of the week . 142.65/120.00*OXY (Indy Oil and Gas) Like all the oil and gas plays, there is some selling in these names, but they are holding and putting in fairly easily seen resistance and support. There are some good risk/reward trades to be made here. OXY has a few things in its corner, clear support around 74, its in its upper Darvas box, and a break over the recent double top would mean blue skies. This one might need some time before the break, but patience may be worth it, keeping in mind that all of this is no longer valid on a break below 74. 80.83/74.33*PQ (Indy Oil and Gas) Tried to break out got turned around in Friday’s mess. Similar chart to all the other indy oil and gas.16.60/15.00*RRC (Indy Oil and Gas) Unlike the OTHER I O and G plays... this stock has seen higher volume accumlation but still has some lower volume selling days. 65.53/56.22 SID (Steel and Iron) Bought all week, though less volume than the sellers two weeks prior (caution). 41.98/35.60URBN (Apparel Stores) Working through some resistance from summer of 2005. In the near term, stock has been attacking the 31 level recently, and this week tried it on heavy volume. Was turned back friday (on high volume) but could be worth watching. 31.77/29.40Trendline BreaksAIRM- 46.59/43.83GME- 47.46SBS- Chart within a chart. Downward trend break on 2/27 and potentially come back to kiss that line goodbye several times. Add above 46, stop below... break would be 49.69.InterestingBBL- Bought all week stop at 61.21EXPO- Technically the breakout failed on Friday but was on light volume... worth watchingBreakoutsBUCY Stop at 104.36BVN Stop at 81.37GGB Stop at 31.85HLF Stop at 46.04PTNR Stop at 21.70*SDA (Carne) Broke out on Tuesday/Wednesday and tried to sell off the rest of the week. Hammered hard and held where it needed to above the break (18.50). 19.93/18.52SQM Stop at 207.49ETF’sFXI (China) (SHORT) Might be a chase here but wow, down big on heavy volume Friday. Might be coming into some support here around 125. GDX (Gold Miners) Clean breakout over 55 though on light volume. ITB (Home Construction) Downward trend broken in Jan, tried to get lower again but put in a higher low on 3/10.SMH ( Semi) Wedge forming that is going to get resolved here one way or another soon. 29.62/28.26

Related Stocks: AUY, GDX, MTL, RRC, SDA

Results from last week

Sat, 15 Mar 2008 00:03:23

ABB (Industrial Electrical Equipment) Consolidated move up from 23 area and above trendline break. Break over 26 and over 26.21 with volume to confirm move higher.Would like to see a cleaner break here. Trade never triggered.APA (Indy Oil and Gas) Surviving well in a terrible tape. That being said distribution is heavier than accumulation (the exception was Friday with a big green volume bar put in). Break over 117.92 confirms move higher, while under 114.45 takes it lower. SEE CHARTAdded on Thursday at 117.92AUY (Gold) Currently holding in new all-time high Darvas Box with wide price swings and hammers. Box floor would be at 17.71 (defined risk) with continuation higher over 19.35. SEE CHARTAlready in positionBVN (Gold) Lighter volume pullback on Friday, but held where it needed to at 75. A break below 75 would indicate a failed break, and a break over 79.48 would indicate a move higher. Also Darvas-boxy. Continues Higher in a terrible tape. Already in position and stop raised to 81.37HLF (Drugs and Wholesale) Broke out to new all-time highs on Friday but volume wasn’t great. 46 area was tested in Sept of 07 and turned around. Stock is whippy and has massive intra-day swings... careful.Position added with tight stop (46)KWK (Indy Oil and Gas) Whenever this thing pops it gets beaten up, but the trend in Feb has been up. SEE CHART May have come back to uptrend support. 34 level was minor resistance in early Feb and the stock held there twice last week.Tested 34 again this week and moved up- addedLIFC (Biotech) Consolidating break above downtrend support and is holding minor support at 39.50. Thats the good news.... bad news is has some high volume distribution and has gotten turned back at 42 a couple of times now. Stop Triggered LKQX (Auto-Parts Wholesale) Anything getting bought in this tape deserves a look-see. Looks like an earnings pop and now some consolidation with some upward trending consolidation and accumulation. Pop was above recent resistance at 21 and now becomes support. Looks like there is a seller in the high 22’s/23 area. Weekly chart shows a downward trend line break. Still consolidating though pice action is good. Still on watchMDR (Heavy Construction) Also being bought in this lousy tape. Break above 52.50 wasn’t clean and the couple of days of distribution over the last couple of weeks have been on higher volume. Stock is coming out of a W-bottome in Jan/Feb.Still consolidating and moving sidewaysMTL (Steel & Iron) Resting after its move above 110. Support may be going in at 130 area. Pull back over the last couple of days has been on light volume. SEE CHARTSold off on monday and now put in a test at 120. rallied back for three days an is now probing all time highs. Entry never presented itself and will look for an add over 140.NEU (Specialty Chem) Selling started to come in last week. Stock has been acting really well and now MIGHT be resting and a high-flag is forming. Break over 70.54 would be the move higher and under 67.64 for the break lower. SEE CHARTTrade triggered SD (Oil and Gas Drilling) Holy hammer’s batman. Gapped higher... sold off 6% and then closed up fractionally on better than average volume (a majority coming right at the end of the day).SDA (Carne) Continues movement in its channel from 16.75-18.50 ish. Starting to look less like a downward trend break and more like an inverted “head and shoulders.” Humongous volume on Friday. Break over 18.50 on Tuesday. Added.TTES (Industrial Equipment and Components) Pennant forming in a couple of different spots on chart. In an uptrend since Jan lows, SEE CHART Break over 51.36 would indicate a move higher. Volume on this move higher has been light.Good reason to have tight stops... break never came and stock broke down. Trade never triggered.Possible plays in areas with strength worth an add to the watchlistCarne- SFDForeign Regional Banks- BCHSpecialty Chem- KWR

Related Stocks: SDA