Good job. You survived the one year mark! :)
Good job. You survived the one year mark! :)
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DPS is an interesting pick, but with the growing concerns over corn prices and oil, do you believe the industry margins will hold, especially ones whe...
DPS is an interesting pick, but with the growing concerns over corn prices and oil, do you believe t... More
DPS is an interesting pick, but with the growing concerns over corn prices and oil, do you believe the industry margins will hold, especially ones where corn prices also effects it? Close
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Impressive performance over the last year, especially compared to the S&P, and with such a low risk rating!
Impressive performance over the last year, especially compared to the S&P, and with such a low r... More
Impressive performance over the last year, especially compared to the S&P, and with such a low risk rating! Close
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Upon second look 1/2 the available credit goes to federal agency's leaving 100M. Then they will only allow agency backed securities to secure loans t...
Upon second look 1/2 the available credit goes to federal agency's leaving 100M. Then they will only... More
Upon second look 1/2 the available credit goes to federal agency's leaving 100M. Then they will only allow agency backed securities to secure loans thus helping Freddie and Fannie. Mush ado about nothing.
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What do you make of the Fed . 28 day credit facility? My thought is the devil is in the details and I don't have a clue what the details are. My guess...
What do you make of the Fed . 28 day credit facility? My thought is the devil is in the details and ... More
What do you make of the Fed . 28 day credit facility? My thought is the devil is in the details and I don't have a clue what the details are. My guess is the Fed will accept only agency guaranteed securities for collateral saving Fannie and Freddie from future potential insolvency. This leaves a lot of debt off the table so I am not sure what if any impact this move will have on overall liquidity. Then I wonder how the securities will be valued. If a financial institution holds 100M (face value) in MBS what are the notes current value as security for a loan? If the MBS drops further in value during the period of the loan can the Fed call in the note or will Uncle Sam eat the potential loss? It all sounds nice but as a pessimist supreme I think what we have here is the sows ear made to look like a silk purse.
In the end I don't see how the underlying problem of consumer debt is addressed.
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The Keynesian nigtmare has another dimension not touched on. What to make of the role reveral where now consumers carry the national debt rather then ...
The Keynesian nigtmare has another dimension not touched on. What to make of the role reveral where ... More
The Keynesian nigtmare has another dimension not touched on. What to make of the role reveral where now consumers carry the national debt rather then the govt. Given that dynamic a 150M tax rebate to consumers can't pump prime the economy when those consumers carry 12-14 trillion dollars in debt. If the stimulus will turn out to be a ho hum event then where does that leave investors? Specifically where does that leave greedy me and my lust for money? Must I now hunker down expecting a long drawn-out slowdown/recession? Should I just think happy thoughts and go on a buying spree picking up downtrodden financial stocks? (Not serious...just making a point). Doesn't this situation point to the govt. having to assume debt in order to break the downward economic cycle? Do you think Congress has the political will to open up the Treasury allowing Fannie and Freddie to buy up distressed mortgages? I just don't see financial companies following Bernake's advice by lowering mortgage principal. If that was done companies would lose 3-4 dollars for every dollar in principal they reduce. That without considering the leverage multiple as those mortgages are security for other lending instruments. Wouldn't that situation lead to additional credit contraction? These sets of potential circumstances leaves me baffled.
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Recently received the following thought provoking investment advice:
If you had purchased $1,000.00 of Nortel stock one year ago, it would now be wort...
Recently received the following thought provoking investment advice:
If you had purchased $1,00... More
Recently received the following thought provoking investment advice:
If you had purchased $1,000.00 of Nortel stock one year ago, it would now be worth $49.00.
With Enron, you would have had $16.50 left of the original $1,000.00.
With WorldCom, you would have had less than $5.00 left.
If you had purchased $1,000 of Delta Air Lines stock you would have $49.00 left
But, if you had purchased $1,000.00 worth of beer one year ago, drank all the beer, then turned in the cans for the aluminum recycling REFUND, you would have had $214.00.
Based on the above, the best current investment advice is to drink heavily and recycle.
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John,
Your appreciation for the theory of reflexivity is to be applauded, as is your obvious willingness to constantly question your own positions. I...
John,
Your appreciation for the theory of reflexivity is to be applauded, as is your obvious w... More
John,
Your appreciation for the theory of reflexivity is to be applauded, as is your obvious willingness to constantly question your own positions. I'm usually 50% short, but I covered all of my shorts in mid-December (obviously 1 month early). While the last two weeks have been kind to me, I'm getting nervous with such long exposure. Any good short ideas besides overall market shorts like SDS? Thanks. Close
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John,
Great interview and a superb performance in this difficult market environment. You have the right ideas and have implemented them well. I loo...
John,
Great interview and a superb performance in this difficult market environment. You... More
John,
Great interview and a superb performance in this difficult market environment. You have the right ideas and have implemented them well. I look forward to your comments in the future.
Bob Close
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Hello John, Congratulations on your interview! I continue to learn from value oriented traders, and especially liked your ideas about looking at the ...
Hello John, Congratulations on your interview! I continue to learn from value oriented traders, and... More
Hello John, Congratulations on your interview! I continue to learn from value oriented traders, and especially liked your ideas about looking at the full range of positive and negative scenarios, and basically being agnostic about what might happen. Thanks much for your contribution here. It's really appreciated! Don Close
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Very interesting ideas here. Kudos on the great work.
Very interesting ideas here. Kudos on the great work.
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Left a comment about your 'Grain Theory' - not that this is a recommendation or a screaming buy idea right now, but I would be interested in your thou...
Left a comment about your 'Grain Theory' - not that this is a recommendation or a screaming buy idea... More
Left a comment about your 'Grain Theory' - not that this is a recommendation or a screaming buy idea right now, but I would be interested in your thoughts about NTRZ ? Close
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mooney
S&P 500 
17-Jan-08
