Stock Blog

Barry Ritholtz's excellent summary of the housing market's woes got me thinking as he discussed David Lereah, the former chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. Lereah wrote a number of ill-advised and ill-timed investment books, ranging from tech stocks to real estate.

In 2005, Lereah published Why the Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust, which looks fated to become an inadvertent classic of bubble-market psychology, taking its place alongside James Glassman's Dow 36,000 and the... [Read More]

Recently, more and more investors and journalists have begun to argue that the center of world financial gravity is shifting decisively away from the US.

There's an emerging consensus that emerging markets are the place to be for the near future, and potentially for longer.

This author points to the fact that increased accumulation of foreign reserves has put many emerging market countries in the position of being net creditors, describing emerging markets as being in a "golden age."

The [Read More]

Those of us who live in commodity-producing areas have noticed something recently that many others haven't: the commodity boom is beginning to make its way into the broader economies of these areas throughout the US and Canada.

Cash generated by high prices for tangibles is trickling out into banks, real estate, luxury purchases, and capital investment of every part of North America that has an economy reliant on production or distribution of "stuff."

I've found that Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A), run by a man with no use for technical analysis, is more technically driven than just about any stock I deal with.

That may not be the definition of irony, but it's not far off.

I guess this is because 1) there are not many traders who want to swing 115K chunks of stock around and 2) the stock attracts people who are thinking in the long term anyway.

Look at how BRK has struggled to clear each major round number, then usually dutifully held above... [Read More]

See for yourself.


I believe China is headed for a 1929-style wipeout, which will be bad news in the short term for them, but good news in the long term as they implement a range of market and economic controls that mirror those imposed in the US depression era.

China now has the financial clout of a world power, but the market infrastructure of an emerging country. This is great for them on the upside (the above chart) as it accelerates the boom, but is going to make the bust equally ugly.

... [Read More]

A quick note as I step out the door for Canada for a couple weeks . . . Much as I like my Astrazeneca (AZN) and Dr. Pepper Snapple (DPS) positions, I wanted to get as close to flat as I can before leaving, since I am not likely to have any access to my account for some time.

That, along with my belief that the worst in the markets is yet to come over the next year or so, combined with my concerns about having too much of a position on the long side generally, is why I've shaved a bit of these... [Read More]

It's situations like these that require me to preface this post by saying PLEASE DO NOT BUY OR SELL ANYTHING YOU READ ABOUT WITHOUT DOING YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE.

Dr. Pepper Snapple (DPS) is down nearly 6% and ruthlessly grinding lower as I write.  I have a substantial position (about 20% of my holdings are in DPS), so this sort of decline tends to catch the attention.

The short reason I am holding it is because I think it is cheap.  It was cheap when I bought it and now it is cheaper.  I believe it... [Read More]

I've been waiting for the Dr. Pepper Snapple spinoff from Cadbury-Schweppes for some time, so I picked up a decent amount of the stock when it came out.

I bought it for the following reasons:

1) It holds a strong stable of brands, including the following: A&W, Canada Dry, Hawaiian Punch, Mott's, Schweppes, 7Up, RC, Sunkist, and Welch's, as well as a number of others you would recognize.

2) It is cheap.  It is priced comparably to bottlers at about 12-13x earnings, while other brand-driven... [Read More]

Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.
-- George SorosOne of the most interesting implications of this idea is that an investor is paid in the market not just for being correct--as most people think--but for being different. To make more money than average, you have to do something different from average. Being correct doesn't hurt, but being different is what pays the bills.

This is because most... [Read More]

It's amazing what having one of the most powerful investment banks in the world vaporize can do to focus your attention. Accomplishing much more in two business days than I ever have, Bear Stearns (BSC, if you dare) has fallen from over $60+ a share to what will probably be around JP Morgan's buyout price of $2.

I have to travel tomorrow (great timing, huh?), so I won't get to devote the time to this interesting situation that I would like to. But I did want to fire off some quick thoughts that... [Read More]