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09-Dec-07

Rationale for HDNG

Holding Rationale for HDNG.

Hardinge, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, distribution, and marketing of computer controlled metal-cutting lathes, machining centers, grinding machines, collets, chucks, indexing fixtures, and other industrial products. It also offers workholding devices for machine tools. The company provides its services to aerospace, automotive, construction equipment, defense, energy, farm equipment, medical equipment, recreational equipment, telecommunications, and transportation industries, as well as to small and medium-sized independent job shops. It distributes its products under the �Bridgeport' brand name through distributors, agents, and manufacturers' representatives, as well as through direct sales force in the United States, Canada, China, Germany, and the United Kingdom. The company was founded in 1890. It was formerly known as Hardinge Brothers, Inc. and changed its name to Hardinge, Inc. in 1995. The company is headquartered in Elmira, New York. The thesis for this buy is that this stock is just dirt CHEAP on a PE basis. When I bought the stock, it was trading just 7 times PE ratio while growing revenues at 20%. In addition, HDNG's sales are 65% outside of the US which means that a recession in the US does not cripple the stock, and there is a benefit when results from abroad are translated for GAAP purposes. Also, since its main competitors are located outside the US, HDNG's products become cheaper than its competitors.

Tagged Stocks: HDNG 

 

11-Nov-07

Rationale for TRT

Holding Rationale for TRT.

Trio-Tech International provides third-party semiconductor testing and burn-in services for semiconductor devices and other electronic components to meet the requirements of military, aerospace, industrial, and commercial applications worldwide. It operates in three segments: Testing Services, Manufacturing, and Distribution. The Testing Services segment offers various tests, including stabilization bake, thermal shock, temperature cycling, mechanical shock, constant acceleration, gross and fine leak tests, electrical testing, microprocessor equipment contract cleaning services, static and dynamic burn-in tests, smart burn-in tests, lab services, and vibration testing. This segment also performs qualification testing consisting of intense tests conducted on small samples of output from manufacturers who require qualification of their processes and devices. The Manufacturing segment manufactures artic temperature controlled wafer chucks that are used for test, characterization, and failure analysis of semiconductor wafers; wet process stations, which wash and dry wafers at a series of 100 to 300 additional processing steps after the etching or deposition of integrated circuits; and other microelectronic substrates. This segment also manufactures centrifuges, leak detectors, highly accelerated stress test systems, and �burn-in' systems that are used primarily in the �back-end' of the semiconductor manufacturing process to test finished semiconductor devices and electronic components. The Distribution segment markets and supports distribution of its own manufactured equipment. This segment also distributes complementary products supplied by other manufacturers that are used by its customers, and other semiconductor and electronics manufacturers. The company was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Van Nuys, California. I feel that this stock is extremely undervalued after its drop in the last 3 months when it reported its last earnings report. While there was a drop in growth, at current levels, a PE of 11 is unjustified. Additionally, the company has about 3-4 dollars of cash on its books per share making this stock seem even cheaper. I ran into a blog that really did a good job of analyzing the current situation with the stock. http://finance2.finanmart.com/2007/09/trio-tech-international-significantly.html

Tagged Stocks: TRT 

 

Rationale for CROX

Holding Rationale for CROX.

I just feel that CROX has been oversold based on its recent quarterly report. A 50% drop for an inline number tells me that the stock is oversold and I will be selling the stock after it rebounds. I might consider accumulating more shares in the stock if it continues to drop as it is currently trading at a PE less than its growth rate.

Tagged Stocks: CROX 

 

29-Oct-07

Rationale for CDS

Holding Rationale for CDS.

China Direct, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a management and consulting company in China. It offers consulting and advisory services to public Chinese entities seeking to access the United States capital markets. The company also engages in the sale and distribution of industrial grade synthetic chemicals. It distributes products to industrial manufacturing company and trading companies, including property developers, textile factories, and pharmaceutical factories located in eastern China. The company's products are used in the production of a various finished products, such as paint, glue, plastics, textiles, leather goods, as well as medical products. In addition, it processes and manufactures various magnesium by-products, including magnesium powder, magnesium scrap, magnesium alloy, and various grades of magnesium slabs. Further, the company serves as a marketing resource and sources private companies in China seeking to access the United States capital markets, as well as operates as a reseller, exporter, and distributor of toys and related entertainment products manufactured in China. China Direct is based in Boca Raton, Florida. I was attracted to this stock as it has hit the top percentage gainer a couple of times within the last month. Within that time, I noticed that it has recently been listed on the AMEX. Additionally, the company has recently upped its guidance for the 2nd time within a relatively short period. Additionally, when I reviewed the Yahoo Finance estimates for the company, and the company's revenues should come close to doubling making PE for this year of 39 and next year of 20 look cheap. This is a reverse merger company, so the stock is probably not for the faint of heart. A good analysis of the stock can be found here: http://www.duttonassociates.com/research/chnd/notes/cds_note_102307.pdf

Tagged Stocks: CDS 

 

24-Oct-07

At these levels, I feel that the market has to fall closer to 13,000 level for the Dow with the Fed meeting looming next week. If the stocks rally into the meeting, I feel that the Fed will not lower rates bringing the stock market down. However if the market shows that it is still vulnerable to the credit markets coming into the meeting, the Fed will have more reason to lower interest rates from which point the markets can rally. Right now, I am looking at a few stocks that meet my criteria and which would seem even more attractive. Among these stocks that I am reviewing are WATG and NTRI. Please let me know if you anyone has any insight on these stocks.

 

Rationale for VSEC

Holding Rationale for VSEC.

VSE Corporation provides various engineering, logistics, management, and technical services on a contract basis. Its Federal Group consists of four divisions: Communications and Engineering Division (CED), Engineering and Logistics Division (ELD), Management Sciences Division (MSD), and Systems Engineering Division (SED). CED supports the Army's Communications and Electronics Command in the management and execution of the Rapid Response program. ELD provides lifecycle engineering, logistics, maintenance, and refurbishment services to extend and enhance the life of existing equipment. MSD provides training, consulting, and implementation support in the areas of Enterprise Excellence, Lean Six Sigma, process and product optimization, project management, leadership quality engineering, Integrated Product and Process Development, and reliability engineering. SED provides systems and software engineering, logistics, and prototyping services; obsolescence management, service life extension, and technology insertion programs; and technical documentation and data packages. The company's International Group consists of three divisions: BAV Division (BAV), Fleet Maintenance Division (FMD), and Coast Guard Division (VCG). BAV provides assistance to the U.S. Navy in executing its Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program for surface ships sold, leased, or granted to foreign countries by providing program management, engineering, technical support, and logistics services for ship reactivations and transfers, as well as follow-on support. FMD provides global field engineering, logistics, maintenance, and information technology services to the U.S. Navy and Air Force. VCG provides the U.S. Coast Guard with FMS support and lifecycle support for vessels transferred to foreign governments. Energy and Environmental Group provides consulting services in the field of energy and environmental management. I bought this stock after reviewing the company's growth over the last 5 years and projected growth in the current year. Based on this analysis I felt that this stock was a good risk to reward play as the stock was attractive on its growth basis compared to its PE ratio.

Tagged Stocks: VSEC 

 

Rationale for MLAB

Holding Rationale for MLAB.

Mesa Laboratories, Inc. engages in the design, development, acquisition, manufacture, and marketing of electronic instruments, supplies, and disposable products for health care and industrial applications. The company markets DATATRACE data loggers that are used to measure temperature, humidity, and pressure inside a process or inside a product; and RAVEN biological indicators and chemical indicators to assess the effectiveness of sterilization processes, including steam, gas, and radiation to healthcare markets, such as dental offices and hospitals, as well as for medical device and pharmaceutical manufacturing industrial applications. It also offers contract and testing services, including organism identification, population verification, sterilization process development, and custom biological indicator production to industrial companies for the development of sterilization processes. In addition, the company markets Dialysate meters that are used to test various parameters of the dialysis fluid, and for the calibration and operation of the dialysis machine to dialysis machine manufacturers and biomedical technicians, and dialysis nurses or patient care technicians; and ECHO MM-1000 Dialyzer Reprocessor, an automated dialyzer reuse machine. Further, Mesa offers NUSONICS concentration analyzers, pipeline interface detectors, and flow meter products for water treatment, chemical processing and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning applications, as well as for industry applications, such as chemical, food, pharmaceutical, and polymerization processes. It distributes its products directly to end users, as well as through distributors and manufacturers' representatives in the United States, Europe, Africa, Canada, Mexico, Australia, Asia, and South America. This stock was probably a mistake for me to own. The stock's float is very small and is therefore is very illiquid. Additionally, the last quarter for the company was not very good. The company's growth in earning primarily from a company that was acquired last year. After the quarter, the stock fell more than 25%. I ended up buying more shares when the stock fell to 18 dollars per share as I felt that at those levels the stock became rather attractive and I was willing to give the stock another chance. If the stock does not have a tremendous quarter, I will probably dump the rest of my shares and if the stock goes up, I will probably unload half of my current position.

Tagged Stocks: MLAB 

 

Rationale for HRBN

Holding Rationale for HRBN.

Harbin Electric, Inc. develops, engineers, manufactures, and sells customized linear motors and other special motors. The company's products principally include flat linear asynchronous motor series and flat three-phase linear asynchronous motors used in transmission systems as the production transportation line, the crane, postal service sorting machine, baggage sorting machine, printed matter sorting machine, automatic linear door, and revolving door applications. It also offers plane goods transmission installment, which is used in logistical line, custom, and airport applications; and micro-motors used in various home appliances, including microwave oven, refrigerator, warmer, washer, fan, and other applications; and armature that is used in various electronic tools comprising electric drill, electric hammer, electric scissors, curve-saw, and polisher applications. Harbin Electric develops products based on customers' specific design specifications using its proprietary process technology and expertise. In addition, it provides after-sale services. The company supplies its motor products and systems to end users in the People's Republic of China and to other industrial original equipment manufacturing customers internationally. Based on the presentations done by the company and the 10-K and 10-Q filings, the company is trying to expand its exposure to more and more products. The company is building more capacity in order to be able to handle orders for these products and is partnering with Chinese universities to develop new uses for its motors. The biggest attraction for me to this stock are the projections for the company. The CEO and CFO have said that their goal is to increase its yearly sales to 500 million from today's levels. Additionally, the stock is trading at very low PE ratio compared to its growth rates. The one thing that constantly worries me about this stock however is the fact that the company is based in China and is primarily owned by the management whose interests may not coincide with those of the shareholders. Additionally the company released a 8-K on 10/23/07 which I have not been able to figure out which adds to the doubts I have about the company.

Tagged Stocks: HRBN 

 

Rationale for BTJ

Holding Rationale for BOLT.

Bolt Bolt Technology Corporation engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of marine seismic energy sources used in marine seismic exploration for oil and gas industry worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Geophysical Equipment and Industrial Products. The Geophysical Equipment segment offers marine seismic energy sources and underwater electrical connectors and cables, seismic source monitoring systems, air gun signature hydrophones, and pressure transducers used by the marine seismic industry. The Industrial Products segment provides miniature industrial clutches, brakes, and sub-fractional horsepower electric motors, which are used in airplane video systems, hospital beds, barcode labelers, and banking machines, as well as in air conditioning systems, valve timers, vending machines, point of purchase displays, and business machines. The company also offers replacement parts for air guns and APG guns. Bolt Technology Corporation sells its geophysical equipment to marine seismic exploration contractors, and industrial products to original equipment manufacturers. I believe that BTJ is a great stock to own. The company is growing at a rate greater than 50% but trades at a forward PE of 13. I also believe that while 50% growth rate may not be sustainable in the future, the demand for the company's air guns and other technology will not diminish as long as the prices for oil get slashed in half. Additionally, I think this stock is also a great hedge against the dollar as more than 50% of its earnings come from overseas. For those who are interested in this stock, I would recommend reading the following. It is a well put together analysis of the stock. http://regulationfd.blogspot.com/2007/10/nuts-and-bolts-of-bolt.html

Tagged Stocks: BOLT 

 

Rationale for AUY

Holding Rationale for AUY.

Yamana Gold, Inc. engages in the acquisition, financing, exploration, development, and operation of precious metal mining properties in Brazil, Argentina, Honduras, and Nicaragua. It primarily produces gold. The company owns, or holds interests in, and/or operates various properties principally comprising the Sao Francisco, Sao Vicente, and Fazenda Nova/Lavrinha properties, as well as the Chapada copper-gold project, the Fazenda Brasileiro gold mines, and the Jacobina gold mine in Brazil. It also owns or holds interests in the San Andres gold mine and prospective exploration grounds in Honduras, the Gualcamayo gold project in Argentina, and prospective exploration concessions in Nicaragua. This is the company that has been touted by Jim Cramer as the gold stock with the lowest gold procurement costs. With the US Dollar losing its value faster than water falling at he Niagara Falls, I felt that AUY would be a good investment. With its recent acquisitions, I think the company is doing the right thing of acquiring rights to more and more gold mines that will benefit the company down the line as gold keeps rising. Additionally based on 2008 earnings estimates on Yahoo, the company looks cheap on a PE basis. Down the line, I will try to do some analysis on some of the small cap gold companies out there and switch. In a recent interview on the Aaron Task's podcast, the CIO of GROW (a mutual fund company) said that there are still attractive plays in the Gold small cap arena.

Tagged Stocks: AUY 

 
 

 

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