Stock Blog

its going down so do you buy more ? a) I don't believe in cost averaging b) i do believe in value investing there is no new news - on the contrary the only thing to change since before the 20% drop is that the treasury dept of the company has re-purchase shares at 5.75 to provide for the ESOP. At 5.00 I am an active buyer - tempered only by my personal asset allocation and liquidity It is significantly below book value - reasonably inflation proof and steady dividend. my previous... [Read More]

see my comment on bobsadvice rationale

I bought it as I know their business intimately and like their products and customer base and figure all the problems are financial engineering, not core operating value so at the price (even assuming negative book value) the core underlying business is good and has a strong PV with a clean balance sheet. However the counter argument is: If the clients go the core operating value disappears Online brokerage software is a commodity The brand name is getting trashed They are making the... [Read More]

New thoughts a bit late after the last 6 month results. But here's my thinking: it is trading at a discount to "realisable" book - ie I believe the asset value of 300m for property and plant that is kept on the books is seriously undervalued. So while the book value from current cost accounting basis is approx 3 pounds / share looking at the gains that are posted whenever any property is sold off (about 3x) that still leaves a large margin. However some words of caution and why it is... [Read More]

Coming into the holidays I sold out of many of my positions and have consolidated down to far fewer holdings and considerably more cash. I believe there is a chance (probably small one) of a major fall in the markets in 2008 and I'd rather miss out on the upside than suffer a 20% loss on the downside. At present am about 70% cash or very short term bonds and 30% equities. My equity positions are very tightly defined - Amazon is still an emotional hold and is my primary USD holding. The other... [Read More]

I've recalled all the short position. Reason is I'm thinking of a sale of part of this. The big question I'm mulling is will a re-valuation of the currency increase the US$ value of this index more than the increased costs of exports will hurt the underlying companies in the index. I suspect the premium we pay for this index reflects an assumption of currency gain - so there will not be 1:1 relationship of currency appreciation to index appreciation.

I'm not that keen on the merger prospects with Reuters. Reason being Thomson has long taken advantage of multiple sales points within the big banking customers and resisted centralised buying. With profits likely to be lower in q4 and 2008 in the investment banking sector a clear cost cutting measure that will be employed is the rationalization of multiple contracts and that will only be doubly sensitive with the combined entity. So in short the revenues are going to get hit at the same time... [Read More]

the Company is primarily engaged in the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity in Chile, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Peru. It provides me a blue chip exposure to growth in the most vibrant economies of south america. Plus as an electricity company it produces steady profits with strong defensibility. i view it as a a good long term income producing investment with an upside option on the south american economies

I'm not complaining and at this level it would make sense for me to re-allocate a portion of the portfolio. It is a constant conflict between reach and margin pressure. I still believe AMZN is a strong long term hold as replicating the scale is too hard for anyone without the online distribution to do) but margins will always be kept under pressure by the lowering barriers of online commerce. So for me its an investment in reach, scale and management.

I can't see much justification owning airlines - particularly BA which is a pension plan that pollutes the atmosphere - however if you're going to own an airline then their service and reputation justifies the premium pricing that they command. ie i happily pay a 25% premium to fly BA over the discount airlines.