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28-Apr-08
When?
Well folks are we about to blast off or not?
That seems to be the question.
The SPX closed marginally above its January-April trading range on
Friday on below-average volume.The SPX continues to flirt with both
horizontal resistance and with the upper limit of a developing "bearish
ascending wedge." If 1400 and the upper limit of the wedge aren't
broken soon, then a test of the lower limit of the wedge would appear
imminent, now near 1375.
The NDX has broken horizontal resistance, up and out of its
Jan-April trading range. The index is flirting with the upper limit of
its rising trend zone, so a pullback to test the lower regions of the
zone would by no means be a surprise. The other alternative would be a
parabolic upside move, up and out of the zone. Given the light volume
on the breakout, this would seem less likely but with buyouts like this
morning helping and checks in the mail we may have hit our upwards air
pocket here for a quick sprint. Fingers crossed.
On the buy front today is a hard day. VM Ware is up $2 and if you go to
check it's fundamental s at street.com all it's mving averages are
sloping up somehow although the stock is beneath them.. this is the
type of power stock you may want to take a ride on for this final push
up.
On NotableCalls this caught me eye
Morgan Stanley is upgrading Momenta Pharma (NASDAQ:MNTA) to
Overweight-V and increasing their target to $22. Firm believes the
stars could be finally aligning for the FDA approval of MNTA/NVS’s
M-Enox in 2008-09 as the only genericversion of SNY’s Lovenox (blood
thinner), potentially leading to: 1) 40-50% share of the $1.5+ billion
U.S. Lovenox market, 2) peak potential earnings of $3/sh and 3) a share
price of $40+. The downside risk of a long delay or non-approval is
that the stock returns to $6.
Why are they upgrading now? Firm believes that the heparin (a complex
sugar) contamination crisis may have given MNTA the unique opportunity
to prove to the FDA its proprietary technology for characterizing
complex sugars. Last week’s Nature publication shows that MNTA worked
with the FDA to identify the heparin contaminant. They view this work
as a game changer, underestimated by the Street. In our opinion, the
FDA is now more likely to view MNTA’s technology as sufficient to show
that M-Enox is the same as Lovenox (also a complex sugar) — a key
regulatory hurdle and one they feel competitors Teva and Amphastar
cannot achieve.
Notablecalls: This is a game-changing upgrade for this stock. Morgan
Stanley has been neg on MNTA for quite some time (UW rating) and now
they are saying the stock could do $35+ under bullish scenario.
The NC crew missed the fact that a news release further down shows MNTA
announcing a presentation at.... of course Morgan. It's always hard to
figure out the order of these things is the presentation set and then
as luck would have it herceptin gets tainted or does the Co have a
story to tell now... the fact that the co worked with the FDA in the
emergency lends major creed to their case in my view. Perhaps sometime
between today and the presentation Wed this could be bought for a nice
hold. Big price target.
Other than that I'm seeing very little going on. My favorite police
camera stock Digital Angel is reporting this week, they have in the
past had blow out numbers. I have a small position and am entertaining
the thought of buying more today... DGLY going to $14 I hope....
Hard to get going this week after the NFL draft!
I'm only giving the Giants a B or B- and I'm catching a lot of flack. ~ stoney
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