Blog Post

Assuming the commodity boom is really over then we are pretty close to another dump in the spy/qqqq/iwm and oil has been trying to show some kind of retracement since its 150 highs, so this might be one last break out hoopla before the final dump and loss of any kind of liquid volume. at least that's how I see it.

Exactly my view. OIL is at the upper level of a long term up trending channel. I think the uptrend stays intact so long term I'm bullish. Intermediate I'm bearish think we will go down to lower level of channel around $80 and short term I bullish thinking we get a 50% retrace to about $129. This scenario would provide an excellent entry into spy/qqqq/iwm. Maybe this will happen and maybe not. GOLD looks like an excellent long term play as it is trading at the lower range of long term up trending channel. That's if the uptrend is going to remain intact. DGP looks like good entry at this level with a tight stop of course.

Interesting....how about the upcoming hurricane, probably that would help your predictions come true...and shorting spy,qqqq,iwm for a double whammy gain....what u think of FRE and FNM? Have you traded those lately?

I've been too scared of FNM and FRE been shorting ABK and UAUA. As far as the hurricane its so unpredictable who knows. I like these OIL plays because even if I'm wrong I'll be able to stop out for small loss at the lower trend lines. Unless they gap down huge which is not out of the question...lol