FBTX is a Texas Savings and Loan that is facing some serious balance sheet issues.  The company has only ~$113M in net tangible equity vs. ~$5.7B in assets.  Those assets consist of nearly $2B in builder loans (read: loans to residential and commercial builders), and another $2B or so in residential loans, a good chunk of which were purchased from Countrywide, and are in one of the big trouble markets.  They also have  about 40% of their loans in Texas, which has held up very well.

The thesis goes that the company is at serious risk of going into receivership by the FDIC or being forced to raise capital due to the degree of leverage and the increasing impairment on their loans.  NPLs (non-performing loans, e.g., loans that aren't being paid) are rising rapidly, nearly 100% quarter over quarter.  On their 12/31 call report (available on the FDIC website, not through the SEC), we see that their late and 90+ day past due loans are another $180M dollars, nearly double their current NPLs.  Despite management's assertions that they will be able to cure these loans, I find it nearly impossible: most all these loans are in trouble spots and likely are by homeowners who have negative equity and no incentive to continue to pay off their loans.

So, I think there is a very strong likelihood that the stock basically goes to zero, or that they or forced to raise a lot of equity and that the stock drops substantially due to the dilution.  FBTX is currently trading at about 1x its tangible book value, vs. peers in less dire situations who are at .5-.75x their BV.  The stock is volatile and heavily shorted, but I think it's likely we can see the thesis here play out as early as next quarter, when NPLs should jump alarmingly and cause regulatory action.