Blog Post

current market analysis march 16

-march 15 fed injects 200billion to bearn stearns thru jpm morgan

this shows that the fed are risking their own neck, which means the economy is in really bad shape.

http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/03/14/how-the-fed-is-putting-itself-at-risk-for-bear-stearns/

fed cuts on the 18 and visa pricing date moved up to 18. visa open market on the 19. these set of events will turn around the market for a least a week. a week of bulls. at most a month.

Then it will fall apart

problem: feds are fixing the symptoms, not the disease. they are facing a multi front wen battling a struggling economy going in the recession.

at this moment, they are trying to fix the market (symptoms), not the economy (disease). fed cuts help the market not the economy. have the feds fix any of the following?

Increase home values? No
Create more jobs? No
Decrease foreclosures? No
Decrease credit card defaults? No
Decrease unemployment? No
Decrease the price of gasoline? No
Decrease the soaring cost of health care? No
Decrease the soaring cost of food? No


one of the main problems is still the default on mortgages on homes. the feds can not let this continue to happen. they can not let people be left homeless. very bad for an election yr. they will try their hardest and keep on risking even more to also help the average joe

the fed cuts and the  visa ipo will provide a soft landing for recession for 2008.

plan: try to get into the visa ipo. ride the hype, before the general pop realizes its still a recession.  while things are going bull, prepare to buy etf indexes of shorting the market. get them cheap during short bull run.
continue to expect a bear market until the fundamentals  gets fixed.
expecting bear market. a least 2 quarters, which defines recession. most likely 2008 is a  stretched out bear market for a year.