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Yesterday

Recently I began using stops on my trades -- actually contingent orders that work the same way as stops -- and today I had a tight stop on the APWR price after it rose above $20.  Unfortunately it dropped to my stop price and didn't go much under it, which REALLY ANNOYED ME as I couldn't buy back in cheaper.

Stops are a new way for me to show my incompetence as a trader.

On a positive note, the sale price I did get put my portfolio dollar value at a new all-time high.  I am now 6 for 6 when averaging down on multi-day slides in APWR during the last 6 weeks, with the end result being a great profit.  A 7th try might cause me a nervous breakdown.  I am considering a self-imposed suspension from the market until next week to collect my thoughts.

Chances are, another price dip will lure me in again.  How can I resist what has become almost a sure-thing?  APWR has now passed AMZN on the Covestor top 100 buy trades for the last month, which is shocking to me, and mostly my fault.

 

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26-Aug-08

I continued to average down yesterday after APWR's good long term earnings report.  Since the report had nothing exciting short term, the price dropped as traders abandoned their bets, and along with an overall market selloff created my ideal buying opportunity of fear-driven selling.  The morning earnings conference call had many longer-term positives such as raised 2009 guidance.  Analysts also were pleased with the longer term projections.

The wild swings in the price are not good for my portfolio's risk rating, but I am not going to worry about that.

Tagged Stocks: APWR 

 

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22-Aug-08

Continued to average down on dips, some of which were steep.  My averaged price is much better than it was during the weeks I was holding without trading daily.  If the earnings report is good next week, I got some real steals today.   I should have stuck with what worked for me, so I move forward with daily trading continuing to always be a possibility.

Monday's earnings report before market open should provide some fireworks.  Yet another Strong Buy was initiated by another analyst today, although analysts have been completely ignored for the last few weeks, awaiting earnings.


Tagged Stocks: APWR 

 

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21-Aug-08

Taking more time to make a decision this morning, I waited until after the open to see what would win out for APWR -- closing Wednesday above the 13 day EMA for the first time in weeks which should cause some technical buying, or the market selloff predicted by futures prices.

The selloff won, and APWR price dove after being up in pre-market.

Now it was time to decide to wait until after the typical APWR selloff in midmorning, or not wait because APWR announced the earnings conference call would be Monday, only a 2-day notice! 

I decided it was a nice setup with a lot of upward pressure in a market-selloff environment.  My ideal buy-into-fear opportunity.  If I'm wrong I have plenty of room to average down.

Tagged Stocks: APWR 

 

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20-Aug-08

Returning to my old pattern, I added 0.35 to APWR's previous closing price as my selling point, coming up with a sell of 22.00, then bumped it down to 21.97 to avoid resistance at 22.00.    The sell price was hit.

The dip that followed was small, only a few %, and not enough to get me back in yet.  Price action in the mid morning to early afternoon doesn't interest me, so I'll check back in later in the day.  I do always have a crazy-low bid entered at all times, usually around 7% to 10% under the morning high price.


*Edit for after-hours:  I see my math was totally wrong this morning, to my benefit.  I added 0.35 to my purchase price not to the previous day's close.  Sigh.......perhaps it is better that I am not trading as often now, even though it worked to my benefit this time.


Tagged Stocks: APWR 

 

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18-Aug-08

In the morning the price didn't act as I expected, more like the APWR of old, so I decided to correct my holdings.  I wasn't comfortable, and now I am.  Due to leverage, I actually have the highest portfolio dollar value I've ever had.  I should probably be concerned that using leverage has not bothered me in the slightest, like back in my dot-com trading days.

I plan on reentering at a lower price when convenient, assuming the APWR of old has returned and a 3% to 10% dip appears.

As I type this, a 4% pullback has occurred from the daily high. 

Another reason for getting out -- freeing up cash for Tim Sykes' picks! 

Today I followed Tim's FOUR bounce play with a small position.  Figures I would hit the one out of 20 picks that lost money.  I take comfort in the fact that I followed my rules and got out of the position when it didn't go as expected. The amount of money was small but the percentage was significant so my chart is going to look messy tomorrow.

At the end of the day I got back in APWR at a good price, about a 7% discount from the day's high. 

 

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17-Aug-08

Monday morning is now looking even more positive for APWR, with the discovery of several unannounced contracts on the Chinese website of APWR's acquired construction company.  The links were posted by a member of the APWR Yahoo message board, and I spent some time reading the very challenging Chinese-to-English translations of the contract announcements on the website of the construction company, probably battling NBC Olympic reporters for bandwidth as I was downloading the pages.  Thanks to the great treasure-hunting work of this member, this golden news is now available.

This appears to be yet more good news for APWR, most likely not to be announced in Western media until after the earnings audit is completed.

Tagged Stocks: APWR 

 

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15-Aug-08

Today should be a theme-park worthy ride for APWR's price.  August options expire today and Raymond James initiated coverage this morning at Strong Buy.  Today marks the sixth out of the last nine trading days that the price crossed a profit point at which I would have usually sold.  With my newly found discipline, I will hold through what is most likely going to be several solid gaining days.

My options trading friend bought options when the price was around 21.75ish, so now I have officially had influence on at least one trade that was not my own.  He explained to me the MACD is crossing at several different time frames, and the price is right at the 13-day EMA, about to cross it.  I nodded, pretending to understand.  Add the positive news today and the nearing earnings announcement (no exact date yet), and next week is looking very bullish.


Tagged Stocks: APWR 

 

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13-Aug-08

Today makes the fifth out of the last seven trading days that APWR has had points I would have typically sold.  I continue to hold with the belief that price will be closer to 25 soon.  Tomorrow has a chance of being the day, based on today's volume and uptrending closing price.  With APWR being unpredictable and me bullish on the stock, I would prefer to hold rather than miss the spike, which based on the last 7 days can be 15% within an hour.

I trust nothing I read about APWR anymore, with manipulators, pumpers, and bashers slinking along in the shadows at all times, undoubtedly with pockets full of boiler-room payoffs.  Daily trading has become a carnival.  TheStreet.com had a video interview saying if you follow APWR's daily price you may go crazy, and that is accurate. 

To give you an idea of the lunacy, I called investor relations and received far more information than I felt was appropriate.  Quite frankly I was amazed at the amount of information I received which I have found in no other source available to the public.  I also fielded a phone call from a random person who tracked me down through a message board, who had even more information which I consider insider info.  Had I acted on this person's information I would have a much better averaged price right now and a significant amount of guilt. Having a brother that is an intellectual property and patent attorney, I know when info has the potential to send me up the river like Martha Stewart.  When I say carnival, I wasn't kidding.

For someone looking to get into APWR now, the best choice is to either wait until after the earnings report which appears to now be coming at the beginning of September, or buy and hold and don't watch daily prices.

Tagged Stocks: APWR 

 

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10-Aug-08

Here are a few things I know:

1) Many people are smarter than me.

2) I've read one finance book in my life.

3) No company PR or bookkeeping can be trusted, especially small Chinese companies.

Given the above, the great returns I've been getting must be a fluke.  I've broken every mainstream financial planning rule.  I'm not diversified, I invest in high-risk stocks in a high-risk short term way, I follow Timothy Sykes who advocates a radical trading method, and I've even day-traded and used margin again. 

Surely within weeks or months the universe will set things right and give me the financial walloping that I have coming.  Then I will open the Yellow Pages, look under Financial Planner, and pay a nice fellow to manage my portfolio and underperform the market for the next 30 years.

 

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