Covestor - yaktipper Track Lists Posts

TimothySykes - Sometimes The Penny Stock Market Is Boring: 6 Stocks Putting Me To Sleep

Wed, 03 Dec 2008 09:12:05

Sent out to TIMalert subscribers late last night: The market tried to go lower yesterday, but the dip buyers were out in full force…really wish they’d just let this thing go, below 7500 on the Dow...

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TimothySykes - Happy TIMukah! A 29 Day Festival Of Daily Contests To Win Free TIMalerts!

Wed, 03 Dec 2008 05:12:53

Forget Chanukah and its eight crazy nights and the Umoo/TIM trading tournament that never quite took off (not enough people registered, sorry!), this marks the unveiling TIMukah, a 29 day festival,...

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YngvaiMalmsteve - Insult Added to Injury

Wed, 03 Dec 2008 02:12:00

After getting shook out today, FRZ appears to be breaking down :(

Related Stocks: FRZ

YngvaiMalmsteve - The 30-Minute Shorting Rule

Wed, 03 Dec 2008 02:12:00

With insult added to injury today with my FRZ trade, I started thinking of ways to make my odds better. If I had just waited a little bit longer for FRZ to settle down, I could've entered a short position and had been successful.

I started thinking to all my past shorts. I suspected that my most successful ones were not early in the morning. And, as Tim Sykes usually says, shorting in the morning is a lot more risky. However, I wanted to look at some hard data to see if this was true or not. So I dug up a sample of my past shorts, and separated them by stocks that I shorted in less than 30 minutes after the open, and stocks I shorted 30 minutes after the open or more.

Here's the results. Some of these were paper trades but I'm counting them too. Stocks in green are ones I profited off of.

SHORTS 30 MINUTES OR MORE AFTER OPEN:

PPC (paper) 1.5 hours
SGLP (paper) 1 hour
SGLP 2 hours
XTEX (paper) 1.5 hours
OCNF (paper) 1.5 hours
FRZ 3 hours
RMTI 2-3 hours (I'm counting this one as green even though I messed up my exit for a loss)
ABD 3 hours
THRM near close (I'm counting this one as green as the only reason I got out was I thought there was going to be earnings, but they were already out)
NAK near close
NOA near close
ZINC near close
ANV near close
SPAR near close
MSC last hour
EVC near close (counting this one as green even though I got shook out too fast the next day)
CITP near close
DYN 30 minutes
IMMR 1.5 hours
BWEN 5 hours
TRE 3 hours (counting this one as green as I got shook out too fast the next day)
FEED near close
CAEI last hour
BBND last hour
COIN near close
STXX near close

SHORTS NEAR OPEN:

TGIC 15 minutes (gap & crap)
CCI 5 minutes
FEED (paper) 10 minutes
FRZ 25 minutes
PPC (paper) 15 minutes
XTEX (paper) 10 minutes
OCNF (paper) 5 minutes
HSNI 15 minutes
USAP 5 minutes

The colors don't lie. The odds aren't in my favor when I short near the open. The only exception would be a stock that has a ridiculous 1-day run-up, like OPTR or CCOW, or a stock that gaps and craps, like LNG or TGIC.

This makes a lot of sense. The 1st 30 minutes of the market can be very volatile. Look at FRZ today in the 1st 30 minutes...it was bouncing all over the place. But then it settled down, which allows you to get a better sense of the true direction of the stock.

So, from now on, I will not short anything in the 1st 30 minutes of trading, with the exception of a big gap & crap maneuver, or a stock that has a ridiculous 1-day run-up.

Related Stocks: CITP, DUG, FEED, FRZ, NAK, OPTR, TGIC

YngvaiMalmsteve - Ugggh....yesterday's win almost wiped out

Tue, 02 Dec 2008 23:12:00

And my struggles continue....

FRZ has been ridiculous. Here's a company that is under investigation for price manipulation, is losing money, and has all sorts of other issues. Yet, it just won't die.

FRZ gapped up today and was headed up. I got out at $1.93 for a $90 loss. No big deal.

Then suddenly FRZ started tanking and went red on the day. I decided to re-enter a short position. I had trouble getting filled....I finally got in for 1000 shares at an average fill of $1.80.

Right after that, FRZ POPPED TO $2!!!!!

It then settled into the $1.90's. I saw the Dow turning back up, and decided not to risk this going higher. I got out $1.92 for a $129 loss.

Of course, FRZ has now settled back down to $1.82 as I write this. I probably chased it a bit...it dropped pretty fast...I should've waited for it to settle down.

I'm done with this stock. I don't care how far it's off its lows. It appears to be consolidating now at this level.

Of course, I'm out of day trades now until Friday anyway, so no more trading for me for a few days.

Uggggh....it doesn't seem to matter whether I'm extremely picky about my stocks or not....I just can't seem to get anywhere. Every time I step forward, I take 1-2 steps backward.

GUTTER STATS

Beginning of month: $9803.37
Yesterday: $10093.37
Today: $9879.87
Loss since yesterday: $-213.50 or -2.1%
Gain since beginning of month: $76.50 or 0.8%

POSITIONS TRADED FOR A LOSS:

FRZ $-90
FRZ $-128.50

Related Stocks: FRZ

Woodshedder - Bullish Charts: Ready to Establish Longs?

Tue, 02 Dec 2008 20:12:05

On November 13th, I suddenly and somewhat inexplicably became bullish. Well, honestly, there were some technical reasons, but more than that, my change in sentiment was purely due to a gut feeling. Feel free to re-read the post here: I’m Very Very Bullish.

Four of the five trades I put on after that post stopped out. APOL is the only position I’m still in. It has been doing well for me. Anyway, I’m still somewhat inexplicably bullish. I do plan to begin establishing some “feeler” long positions, once the indexes break above resistance.

The following are some charts that I think can make some good hedges if one is looking for exposure on the long side. If the indexes want to make another run against overhead resistance, I may try some of these trades, in anticipation of continued strength. These positions should be small, and should not be risking more than .5% of total account value. Positions made in anticipation rather than after confirmation should be kept small, initially.

DMND looks interesting, if one can stomach the ATR(10) volatility of 6.4%

HMSY is making a nice pullback to support. Volume picked up on the the up days. A Golden Cross is going to be completed very soon.

HTS is a ragged looking IPO. Still, its strength over the last 7 months should not be ignored.

LHCG is stair-stepping up. Will this breakout fail?

TCBK is not very liquid, but volume is increasing.

TSYS may be my favorite chart of this group. I really like getting in breakouts from triangles.

WTR has made a nice pullback after a breakout from a flat base.

YngvaiMalmsteve - The Correlation Calculator for Stockfetcher!!!

Tue, 02 Dec 2008 15:12:00

RamtaJogi's correlation calculator is definitely one of the most useful tools I've come across in helping me make decisions regarding stocks. Kudos to him for coding it, and to Johnny Vento for coming up with the idea.

Being a heavy user of Stockfetcher, I wanted to see if I could code a correlation calculator into a filter. Wouldn't it be nice to screen for stocks that have a certain correlation with an index?

After some coding, debugging, coding, and more debugging, I finally figured it out!

Here is the Stockfetcher code to find out how closely a stock tracks an index. This one compares to the Dow and looks back over 100 days. In the "Symlist" line, put in the stock you're interested in. In this case, it's LTM. Note that this filter treats a 0 change day as a positive day.

symlist(ltm)

set{close_ind, ind(^DJI, close)}
set{open_ind, ind(^DJI, open)}

set{ind_diff, close_ind - open_ind}
set{ind_up, count(ind_diff >= 0, 1)}
set{ind_down, count(ind_diff < style="font-style: italic;">set{stock_diff, close - open}
set{stock_up, count(stock_diff >= 0, 1)}
set{stock_down, count(stock_diff < style="font-style: italic;">set{indup2, ind_up + 1}
set{inddown2, ind_down + 1}

set{stockup2, stock_up * 2}
set{stockdown2, stock_down * 2}

set{correlate_up, stockup2 + indup2}
set{correlate_down, stockdown2 + inddown2}

set{both_up, count(correlate_up equals 4, 100)}
set{both_down, count(correlate_down equals 4, 100)}
set{indupstockdown, count(correlate_up equals 2, 100)}
set{indownstockup, count(correlate_down equals 2, 100)}

set{indexupdays, both_up + indupstockdown}
set{indexdowndays, both_down + indownstockup}

set{indexupstockup, both_up / indexupdays}
set{indexupstockdown, 1 - indexupstockup}
set{indexdownstockdown, both_down / indexdowndays}
set{indexdownstockup, 1 - indexdownstockdown}

set{indexup_stockup, indexupstockup*100}
set{indexup_stockdown, indexupstockdown*100}
set{indexdown_stockdown, indexdownstockdown*100}
set{indexdown_stockup, indexdownstockup * 100}

add column indexup_stockup
add column indexup_stockdown
add column indexdown_stockdown
add column indexdown_stockup

Now, you can use this code to your advantage to screen for stocks. For example, I don't like to short stocks that are tied too closely to the overall market. Let's take my 200% off the 5-day low filter from the other day, but use the code above to only look at stocks that are Dow Green/Stock Red >45% of the time.

set{close_ind, ind(^DJI, close)}
set{open_ind, ind(^DJI, open)}

set{ind_diff, close_ind - open_ind}
set{ind_up, count(ind_diff >= 0, 1)}
set{ind_down, count(ind_diff < 0, 1)}

set{stock_diff, close - open}
set{stock_up, count(stock_diff >= 0, 1)}
set{stock_down, count(stock_diff < 0, 1)}

set{indup2, ind_up + 1}
set{inddown2, ind_down + 1}

set{stockup2, stock_up * 2}
set{stockdown2, stock_down * 2}

set{correlate_up, stockup2 + indup2}
set{correlate_down, stockdown2 + inddown2}

set{both_up, count(correlate_up equals 4, 100)}
set{both_down, count(correlate_down equals 4, 100)}
set{indupstockdown, count(correlate_up equals 2, 100)}
set{indownstockup, count(correlate_down equals 2, 100)}

set{indexupdays, both_up + indupstockdown}
set{indexdowndays, both_down + indownstockup}

set{indexupstockup, both_up / indexupdays}
set{indexupstockdown, 1 - indexupstockup}
set{indexdownstockdown, both_down / indexdowndays}
set{indexdownstockup, 1 - indexdownstockdown}

set{indexup_stockup, indexupstockup*100}
set{indexup_stockdown, indexupstockdown*100}
set{indexdown_stockdown, indexdownstockdown*100}
set{indexdown_stockup, indexdownstockup * 100}

set{fivedaylow, Low 5 day low}
set{a1, Close / fivedaylow }
set{a2, a1*100}
set{percentincrease, a2 - 100}

add column indexup_stockdown

percentincrease greater than 200
and Volume above 100000
and Close below 20
and Close above 1
and indexup_stockdown above 45

When you run this screen for December 2nd, you get FRZ and WHI. If you run it for December 1st, you get SGLP and FRZ...the two stocks I played today.

Related Stocks: FRZ, LTM, SGLP

YngvaiMalmsteve - A New Twist to the Gap Stat Calculator

Tue, 02 Dec 2008 12:12:00

Johnny Vento's gap stat calculator is a great tool that can help you make decisions in regards to swing trades.

One limitation is that you have to input the ticker symbol that you're interested in. You can't screen for a group of stocks and look at their gap statistics.

So, I designed a version that screens for stocks that have moved by a certain percentage, and then sorts them by the percentage of time they gap up or down.

Here's the "Gainer Gap Up" Filter. It finds stocks that have increased at least 10% from their open, and then calculates the percentage of time that the stock has gapped up the next day. It only looks at stocks that have met the 10% threshold more than 10 times in the last 100 days; otherwise, a stock that has increased by 10% only once and gapped up will have a 100% gap-up tendency. You want to have some sort of minimum sample to work with. You can change all of these numbers if you want.

The filter sorts by the percentage of time the stock has gapped up, from highest to lowest. This filter is probably best to use in bullish markets.

set {gain_threshold, 0.10} /* 10% gain */

set {ClOp , close - open}
set {ClOpPct , ClOp / open}

set {met_threshold_Yesterday , count(ClOpPct 1 day ago >= gain_threshold,1)}

set {gapped_up_today , count(open > close 1 day ago,1)}

set {gapped_down_today , count(open <>

set {met_threshold_then_gapped_up_today , met_threshold_yesterday * gapped_up_today}
set {met_threshold_then_gapped_down_today , met_threshold_yesterday * gapped_down_today}

set {met_threshold ,count(met_threshold_yesterday >= 1,100)}
set {then_gapped_up , count(met_threshold_then_gapped_up_today >= 1,100)}
set {then_gapped_down , count(met_threshold_then_gapped_down_today >= 1,100)}

add column met_threshold
add column then_gapped_up
add column then_gapped_down

set{gap_up_ratio, then_gapped_up / met_threshold}
set{gap_up_percent, gap_up_ratio * 100}

add column gap_up_percent

Close greater than Open
and ClOpPct greater than gain_threshold
and Volume greater than 100000
and Close less than 20
and Close greater than 0.1
and met_threshold greater than 10

sort by column 8 descending

Here's a variation of it, the "Loser Gap Up" filter. It finds stocks that have bounced the next day after a 10% loss, and sorts them by the % of time they've gapped up. This filter might be useful if you're looking for an overnight bounce play.

set {drop_threshold, 0.10} /* 10% drop */

set {OpCl , open - close}
set {OpClPct , OpCl / close}

set {met_down_threshold_Yesterday , count(OpClPct 1 day ago >= drop_threshold,1)}

set {gapped_up_today , count(open > close 1 day ago,1)}

set {gapped_down_today , count(open <>

set {met_down_threshold_then_gapped_up_today , met_down_threshold_yesterday * gapped_up_today}
set {met_down_threshold_then_gapped_down_today , met_down_threshold_yesterday * gapped_down_today}

set {met_down_threshold , count(met_down_threshold_yesterday >= 1,100)}
set {down_then_gapped_up , count(met_down_threshold_then_gapped_up_today >= 1,100)}
set {down_then_gapped_down , count(met_down_threshold_then_gapped_down_today >= 1,100)}

set{gap_up_ratio, down_then_gapped_up / met_down_threshold}
set{gap_up_percent, gap_up_ratio * 100}

add column met_down_threshold
add column down_then_gapped_up
add column down_then_gapped_down

add column gap_up_percent

Open greater than Close
and OpClPct greater than drop_threshold
and Volume greater than 100000
and Close less than 20
and Close greater than 1
and met_down_threshold greater than 10

sort by column 8 descending

Finally, here's the "Loser Gap Down" filter, which finds stocks that have a strong tendency to gap down after a 10% loss. This might be good for overnight shorts in downtrending charts.

set {drop_threshold, 0.10} /* 10% drop */

set {OpCl , open - close}
set {OpClPct , OpCl / close}

set {met_down_threshold_Yesterday , count(OpClPct 1 day ago >= drop_threshold,1)}

set {gapped_up_today , count(open > close 1 day ago,1)}

set {gapped_down_today , count(open <>

set {met_down_threshold_then_gapped_up_today , met_down_threshold_yesterday * gapped_up_today}
set {met_down_threshold_then_gapped_down_today , met_down_threshold_yesterday * gapped_down_today}

set {met_down_threshold , count(met_down_threshold_yesterday >= 1,100)}
set {down_then_gapped_up , count(met_down_threshold_then_gapped_up_today >= 1,100)}
set {down_then_gapped_down , count(met_down_threshold_then_gapped_down_today >= 1,100)}

set{gap_down_ratio, down_then_gapped_down / met_down_threshold}
set{gap_down_percent, gap_down_ratio * 100}

add column met_down_threshold
add column down_then_gapped_up
add column down_then_gapped_down

add column gap_down_percent

Open greater than Close
and OpClPct greater than drop_threshold
and Volume greater than 100000
and Close less than 20
and Close greater than 1
and met_down_threshold greater than 10

sort by column 8 descending

TimothySykes - Another Day, Another Big TIMalerts Winner

Tue, 02 Dec 2008 11:12:14

To be fair, this one kinda sucked. even though I made $600+ on it, the stock didn’t breakdown like I’d hoped–probly cuz I missed my ideal entry of a morning fade as I fully admit,...

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TimothySykes - 10 Stocks To Watch Today, C’mon Big Market Crash, You Can Do It!

Tue, 02 Dec 2008 08:12:08

This was sent to TIMalert subscribers early this morning…funny thing is I just got another TIMalerts lifetime subscriber, who not only gets alerts for the rest fo my life–in whatever...

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Related Stocks: MON

epicadv - The Hedgehog vs. The Fox

Tue, 02 Dec 2008 08:12:25

Isaiah Berlin's essay "The Hedgehog and the Fox" divides thinkers into two categories. Hedgehogs rely on a single defining idea to influence their decision making while foxes rely on multiple experiences and cannot define their thinking into one single idea. As investors, we are confronted by many different ideas and opportunities. This leads us to often act like the fox as a trading opportunity may be here today and then gone tomorrow. To rely on one single idea to consistently generate returns will lead to frustration. When a good trade becomes crowded, we must move on to our next idea.

At times, the market does allow us to behave like a hedgehog. When these opportunities arrive, we must take advantage. After all, I would rather trade a stock with which I am comfortable and knowledgeable than spend hours searching for the next big idea.

We now have such a trade. For the past three weeks I have discussed MasterCard (MA) in my weekly newsletter (http://www.stocktradingtogo.com/2008/11/30/epic-insights-weekly-issue-5/). The fundamentals of MA are well known and deteriorating. MA is a former market darling that has crashed to earth. When most felt the credit crisis was contained, MA was seen as a place to hide. By acting as a transaction processor, MA assumes virtually no credit risk and earns a fee each time their card is used. If consumer spending held, their business would continue to grow. However as the credit crisis has expanded beyond the banks and now threatens a deep, consumer led recession, MA's core franchise is under attack. With predictions circulating of banks cutting credit lines, MA's growth will be curtailed and their earnings power will suffer.

The drop in price has resulted in a clearly defined channel that has held for over 4 months. As the market rallied last week, MA has bounced off the lower end of the trading range, retested the top of the range and then pulled back. The result is a stock at the higher end of its trading range, that has set another lower high (its 4^th lower high since September) and enjoyed a 26% one week move on declining volume. Knowing that volume should follow the trend, a stock that rises on declining volume should not be trusted.

Deteriorating fundamentals, a clear technical pattern and unsustainable moves on declining volume combine to offer an excellent short sale candidate. MA remains a unique stock in a challenging market. Over the past three weeks, I have shorted the shares above $142, covered at $126 and now gone short above $139. With a clear technical pattern, all signs point to a drop in MA shares that should violate the recent intraday low of $115.

Related Stocks: MA

YngvaiMalmsteve - A Decent Start to December

Tue, 02 Dec 2008 06:12:00

Yesterday I mentioned that I had SGLP and FRZ on my short watchlist. I played both of them...got a profit on one and am currently holding the other one even.

First came SGLP. SGLP bounced off $3 resistance and started to fade, despite a surging Dow. I got a 10/60 cross to the downside on the 1 minute chart, so I jumped in and shorted 1000 shares at $2.85.

SGLP broke down nicely, falling below $2.50. Then came the last hour of trading. The Dow started to show a lot of strength. Since SGLP's day chart tends to show big tails on the red candles, I knew SGLP usually doesn't close near it's LOD.

Also, based on Johnny Vento's gap stat calculator, SGLP can gap up 50% of the time when it's 10% down. Since this stock tends to have a big bid/ask spread, I didn't want a repeat of what happened with RMTI. I tried to cover my position at $2.46, but only got filled for 100 shares. I tried again at $2.50, and only got filled for 100 shares. Suddenly the ask was at $2.70 and the bid was at $2.54 and I still wasn't filled! The Dow started to show some weakness again, so I decided I'd keep holding. The bid/ask tightened up, but then the Dow started showing strength again. While SGLP doesn't follow the Dow as closely as other stocks, I decided not to take a chance, especially in this really weird market. I covered the remaining 800 shares at $2.56. Overall, it was a $295 profit and an 11.6% return on my position.

Yes, this could have further downside, and this is only the first down day, but, like I said, I didn't want a repeat of my RMTI experience. These illiquid stocks can jump pretty big on any large order at the ask.

Here's the Dow chart:

Here's the 1-min chart for SGLP and my notes.

Here's the 5-min chart for SGLP and my notes.

Then there was FRZ. FRZ had come off of its highs and was trading sideways. It had support at $1.88. I decided I'd go short if it broke this support level. Sure enough, it did, so I shorted 1000 shares at $1.85.

FRZ started to break down nicely. It nearly went red on the day. However, FRZ was certainly a stubborn stock. It bounced and went right back into the $1.70's - $1.80's. It eventually closed at my entry of $1.85.

We'll see what happens with FRZ tomorrow. Volume was weak in the last hour despite a surging Dow, so it could be a sign that buying is finally drying up. This stock has been pretty unbelievable...only days ago it was at 35 cents! It just won't die....at least not yet.

GUTTER STATS:

Yesterday: $9803.37

Today: $10093.37

Gain since yesterday: $290 or 2.96%

POSITIONS TRADED FOR A GAIN:

SLGP $295

TOMORROW'S WATCHLIST:

Short: FRZ

Long Breakout: DISK, HOTT, FRPT, UTI, COGT

Related Stocks: FRZ, HOTT, RMTI, SGLP

TimothySykes - Details & Reactions To My One-On-One Coaching Sessions

Tue, 02 Dec 2008 03:12:36

Now that I’ve moved into a badass apartment in Greenwich Village in NYC, I’ve got a conference room at my disposal so I’ve given a few half-day and full-day coaching sessions. Half...

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Woodshedder - Big Bamboo Near YTD High; Will Close Out 2 Positions

Mon, 01 Dec 2008 19:12:20

The system has once again excelled in this volatile environment. I mentioned last night that I expected volatility to pick back up, and did it ever. The additional QID position was purchased on the open, as indicated in last night’s post. Today’s large move has put RSI(2) on QID over 80, which means both QID positions will be closed on the open. SDS is just shy of the exit signal with RSI(2) at 78.29, so it will be held until the exit criteria is met. In my personal account, I took the SDS trade, and I will be selling the position tomorrow.

All three open positions are highlighted in yellow and marked-to-market as of Monday’s close. It is exciting to see the system pull itself out of a drawdown in just 3 trades. Granted, SDS could reverse and end up getting stopped out.

The most important development is that the Big Bamboo has weathered its first losing streak! I encourage anyone who is following this system, live, on paper, or just for fun, to examine how the drawdown and losing streak affected your psychology. Remember that the psychology of the person trading the system can have a huge influence on whether the system generates profits, or losses. If any of these last 3 trades would have been ignored, due to a loss of faith in the system, the Big Bamboo would still be in a drawdown.

Congratulations to anyone who has stuck with the system so far! A 25% return over the worst 2 month market period since the Great Depression is something to be proud of. With a little luck, SDS will be closed out even higher than where it closed today, and the system will be at a new year-to-date high.

One final note. The entry and exit signals for this system are generated 100% from technical analysis.

No New Entry Signals for Tuesday

Related Stocks: SDS

epicadv - Weekly Newsletter

Mon, 01 Dec 2008 13:12:53

The latest version of our weekly newsletter is available to download at the following address

http://www.stocktradingtogo.com/2008/11/30/epic-insights-weekly-issue-5/

Related Stocks: AAPL, MA, NLS

TimothySykes - Now I’m Now Up 219% Since Last November: The Latest 15% TIMalert Winner…

Mon, 01 Dec 2008 12:12:40

Die “market participants” die. You don’t have the wisdom/experience/determination to survive, let alone thrive in this environment In just over a year, I’ve turned $12,415...

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TimothySykes - 13 Stocks On My Watchlist aka Thank God I Included Sonic Automotive For TIMalert Subscribers This Morning

Mon, 01 Dec 2008 09:12:02

Sent to TIMalerts subscribers early this morning, same as every morning, for the rest of my life….already banked 15% or $450 on one and my other top potential short today which I missed like a...

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TimothySykes - Wall Street Warriors Debuting Next Week In Australia, Shunned By Debt-Ridden Americans

Mon, 01 Dec 2008 06:12:27

Oh yes, WSW is gonna throw another shrimp on the barbie starting this Friday night on their SBS channel That makes it double digit countries that WSW is in now internationally…you can see the...

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YngvaiMalmsteve - Watchlist for Tuesday December 2nd

Mon, 01 Dec 2008 04:12:00

My watchlist for today worked out pretty well. All of the stocks on my list had pretty nice drops. One of the things that I confirmed today with paper trading was that it's safer to short a bit later in the day than early in the morning soon after the open. I got squeezed on both PPC and XTEX which I shorted soon after the open, although I reshorted both of them about an hour later and that worked out well...especially PPC which went bankrupt, meaning pretty much a 100% return on my position as the stock will now be essentially worthless. Of course, I was just paper trading today so I didn't make any real money.

So, from now on, when I'm trading for real, I won't short close to the open, unless a stock gaps significantly up and looks to "gap and crap". If I happen to miss a morning tank, so be it. With my limited day trades, I'm more concerned with keeping the odds in my favor as much as possible.

I've got 2 day trades back tomorrow, so I will be trading for real. Here's the watchlist:

SHORT WATCH:

SGLP

Was on Monday's watchlist, had a nice drop in the morning, but showed strength in the afternoon, resistance at $3, still up 226% off its lows, still as much of a POS company this week as it was last week

FRZ

Up 343% off its lows, recently being pumped on The Lion, 47% red when Dow is green, 87% red when Dow is red, a packaged ice distributor warned of delisting, reported a net loss of $113 million last quarter, involved in ongoing antitrust and price fixing investigations and associated litigation

DISK and PPHM are still on the long breakout watch list, but in this market I probably won't be going long

Woodshedder - Big Bamboo: New Signal For Monday’s Open

Sun, 30 Nov 2008 17:11:30

Highlighted in a pleasing green hue is the new entry for Monday’s open.

The existing 2 positions have been marked-to-market as of Friday’s close. The % Return shows that both positions are losing, with SDS less than 2% away from stopping out.

Adding another QID position will have the system in 3 of a maximum 4 positions.

My post last week, about the Big Bamboo reseting and re-evaluating before adding more positions was timely, as this is exactly what has happened to get a doubled QID position.

Related Stocks: SDS

Woodshedder - SPY: Will It Be Different This Time?

Sun, 30 Nov 2008 16:11:35

I am short the SPY, via SDS, as well as the Russell 2K, via TWM. Tomorrow I will add QID (more on that in a future post).

It has not been psychologically easy to initiate these positions, but the setup is money. In order for this setup to fail, the indexes will have to prove they have the strength and resilience to push through resistance and maintain an overbought status for more than a day or two.

If my index shorts stop out, it will have been different this time.

Here is what I’m seeing:

RSI(2): the chart shows that when it reaches this level, a reversal is typically soon to follow. If it does not reverse soon, RSI(2) may float in the overbought area, which would be bullish.

Resistance: the chart shows the SPY (the Dow Jones and Nasdaq are similar) closed Friday just above resistance. However, the close was not significantly above resistance, and volume has been weakening. Confirmation is necessary.

Volatility: If the indexes begin to pullback, it is likely that volatility will increase again. Volatility in November has been hovering in a tight range. A continued decrease in volatility, as measured by ATR(10), will be bullish, in my estimation. Should the indexes consolidate here, trading sideways, or continue to wedge higher, this will likely cause ATR(10) to continue falling off.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Obviously, I’m a little nervous here as the indexes have yet another chance to put in an intermediate-term technical bottom. The worst case scenario (for me) is that the indexes continue melting up, hit my stops, and then reverse.

There will be a pullback, soon. If volatility increases during the pullback, my positions will profit. A quick, short pullback, or consolidation on decreasing volatility will make me very very nervous that an intermediate-term bottom is in place, and I will likely seek to exit my short positions with small losses, or at break-even.

Related Stocks: SDS, SPY, TWM

TimothySykes - Mark Cuban To The SEC: I’m Not The Insider Trader, You Are!

Sun, 30 Nov 2008 12:11:43

Remember when the SEC grabbed all the headlines after going after Mark Cuban with insider trading? First, he responded with this post and this post. Now… Well, Cuban ain’t going down...

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TimothySykes - Dear Leveraged Sell Out Little Bitch, Am I Right Or Am I Right? Or Am I Right?

Sun, 30 Nov 2008 08:11:06

Even though The Leveraged Sell Out Amit Chatwani is a little bitch, I liked what he was doing with this video: Well, now WSF asked me a few questions in this interview…click the link for the...

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YngvaiMalmsteve - Ugggh...Struck by the PDT Again!

Sun, 30 Nov 2008 04:11:00

I thought I was going to be able trade one of the stocks on my Monday watchlist, but I won't have any day trades available until Tuesday! So here's to hoping a few of them run up even more on Monday to make them even better shorts on Tuesday.

Looks like I'll just be paper trading these stocks on Monday. At least this will be a good test of my strategy of shorting stocks not tied closely to the market.

I've worked it out so I will be putting $1K per month into my trading account. That's the maximum that I can do right now given everything else that I have going on in my life. If my account stays the same, it will be over a year for me to get to $25K at that rate. Of course, if I actually start making some money in my trading account along with that, I'll get there a lot sooner.

TimothySykes - No Wal-Mart-like Deaths/Shopping Stampedes Here…

Sat, 29 Nov 2008 11:11:52

You guys see THIS craziness? From the article: A Wal-Mart worker was killed Friday when “out-of-control” shoppers desperate for bargains broke down the doors at a 5 a.m. sale. Other...

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TimothySykes - To Those Who Still Don’t Understand My Strategy That’s Up 209% Since Last November: 7 Tidbits

Sat, 29 Nov 2008 07:11:34

1. I do buy stocks, but only when they’re breaking out…slim to none in this market environment. 2. Of course you can short stocks under $5, the brokers that say you can’t just...

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YngvaiMalmsteve - November Month In Review

Sat, 29 Nov 2008 01:11:00

November was another tough month for me....my second losing month in a row. While I didn't have any huge mistakes or huge losers this month, I had a bunch of small losing trades that added up, and my winning trades just couldn't make up for them.

Here's my account graph for the month:

Here's my account graph since I started trading. I'm actually back below where I started. I tried to focus on smaller, consistent profits this month but instead I had small, consistent losers. I actually did better in the summer when I had huge winners that were able to compensate for any small losing trades.

Here's my trades for the month. Just like last month, way too much red....

I had some tough breaks too. My RMTI trade was one, where I was up $500 and had it disappear within seconds and ended up taking a $110 loss instead. Of course, if I had just held it a few days longer, I would've had that profit back and more.

Of course, I also spent a lot of time this month experimenting. I messed around with prehit buys a lot early in the month. And shorts got tough towards the end of the month with the strongly rebounding market. And it seemed I was always long at the wrong times and short at the wrong times.

Here's the stats. In fact, my average daily loss and Sharpe Ratio is actually worse than October:

Starting account value: $10326.86
Ending account value: $9803.37
Total loss: $-523.49
Total loss (%): -5.07%

Average daily loss: -0.3%
Average daily P/L: -$32.72
Annualized return: -110%
Sharpe Ratio: -2.81
Maximum Drawdown: -7.3%
Total commissions paid: $513.10

Total # trades: 31
Total # winning trades: 12
Total # losing trades: 19
% winning trades: 38.7%
Average # trades per day: 0.97
Largest # consecutive winners: 2
Largest # consecutive losers: 4

Positions held long: 17
Positions held short: 14

Largest winning trade: $343.30 (NAK)
Largest winning trade (%): 11.1% (ABD)
Largest losing trade: $-150 (LTM)
Largest losing trade (%): -11.32% (VCSY)

Average overall trade: -$20.10
Average overall trade (%): -0.92%
Average winning trade: $97.03
Average winning trade (%): 4.52%
Average losing trade: $-94.08
Average losing trade (%): -4.36%

Total # trading days: 16
# green days on account: 7
# red days on account: 8
# neutral days on account: 1

Risk/Reward Stats:
Average 1R: $115.67 (this is the average amount of money I risked to lose per trade based on my stop losses)
Expectancy: -0.03 (meaning I lost $3 for every $100 I risked)
Expectancy Ratio: -0.03 (a good trading system should be 0.25 or more)

Overall, my stats weren't so hot this month, and in some ways were my worst ever. For example, an average winning trade of only 4.52% is pitiful....normally it's been double that of my losers. Of course, I did a TON of experimenting this past month...trying new trading methods and styles.

But now it's time to get back to the bread and butter....buying breakouts and shorting breakdowns. That means reducing the number of plays I do. Switching to Interactive Brokers will help in both reducing commissions and reducing the number of trades I do.

Some of you have said that maybe I've been too hard on myself with making my rules more and more strict. But this is a necessity because I'm trying to really hone in on what gives me the best odds of success on a small number of trades. When you look at Il Torello's stats, he's had very few trades and he's up over 30%. This is why I'm making my rules as strict as possible...keep my number of trades low and my odds of success high per trade. Staying away from shorts that are strongly tied to the overall market should help with my short success.

Related Stocks: LTM, NAK, RMTI, VCSY

YngvaiMalmsteve - Stockfetcher Scans: Finding Long Breakout Setups

Fri, 28 Nov 2008 14:11:00

For bullish markets and for being long-biased, I've set up scans that help find bullish stocks and stocks that are ready to break out to new highs.

My "bullish" scan:

Close reached a new 1 Month High
and Close below 30
and Open above 0.01
and Volume above 100000
and Close gained more than 10 Percent over the last 1 Days

Sometimes good shorts turn up on that one as well.

My "3 Magic Lines" scan. This finds stocks that have crossed above the 50 and 200 sma's, as well as the 200 ema, along with the weekly MACD fast line crossing over the slow line within the last 2 weeks. Sometimes good breakout setups turn up on this scan. You have to look through the charts though to pick out the good ones.

Weekly MACD Fast Line(12,26,9) crossed above Weekly MACD Slow Line(12,26,9) within last 2 weeks
and Weekly MACD Fast Line(12,26,9) above -0.1
and Weekly MACD Slow Line(12,26,9) above -0.1
and High above MA(50)
and High above MA(200)
and High above EMA(200)
and Close between 0.1 and 10
and Average Volume(7) above 100000
and RSI(14) below 80

My "Candle Upper Bollinger Band pierce on volume increase and RSI(2)>90" scan, a la Muddy and 13th. This finds bullish strong stocks, although good shorts can turn up on it as well.

Upper Bollinger Band(20,2) below Close
and Upper Bollinger Band(20,2) above Open
and Volume reached a new 1 Month High
and RSI(2) above 89
and Close below 20
and Volume above 100000
and Close reached a new 1 Month High

Finally, this scan looks for stocks ready to break out to a 6 month high. It finds stocks that are within 5% of a 6 month high. You can change the numbers to reflect whatever time period you're interested in looking at (such as a 52-week high). It sorts them according to the "Deadly Combo" scan, meaning the best day rangers are ranked first.

set{sixmonthhigh, High 6 month high}
set{a1, sixmonthhigh * 0.95 }

close above a1
and close below sixmonthhigh
and Volume above 100000
and Close below 20
and Close above 0.01

set{volcnt, count(volume above 50000, 100) }
set{volzero, count(volume equal 0, 100) }

set{x1, high - open}
set{Long_Profit, x1/open }

set{C1A, count(Long_Profit > .04 , 100)}
set{C2A, count(Long_Profit > .09, 100)}
set{C0010, C1A - C2A}

set{D1A, count(Long_Profit > .09 , 100)}
set{D2A, count(Long_Profit > .19, 100)}
set{D1020, D1A - D2A}

set{E1A, count(Long_Profit > .19 , 100)}
set{E2A, count(Long_Profit > .29, 100)}
set{E2030, E1A - E2A}

set{F1A, count(Long_Profit > .29 , 100)}
set{F2A, count(Long_Profit > .39, 100)}
set{F3040, F1A - F2A}

set{G1A, count(Long_Profit > .39 , 100)}

and add column daychg2
and add column C0010 {4_9}
and add column D1020 {10_19}
and add column E2030 {20_29}
and add column F3040 {30_39}
and add column G1A {40+}
and add column C1A {ttl}

sort column 6 descending

Related Stocks: MA

YngvaiMalmsteve - Stockfetcher Scans: 75 - 200% off 5-day Low

Fri, 28 Nov 2008 14:11:00

This is my "75% off 5-day low" filter; it finds stocks that have jumped 75% or more off of their lows within the last 5 days.

set{fivedaylow, Low 5 day low}
set{a1, Close / fivedaylow }
set{a2, a1*100}
set{percentincrease, a2 - 100}

percentincrease greater than 75
and Volume above 100000
and Close below 20
and Close above 1

I modified this one to also make a "200 percent off 5-day Low" filter:

set{fivedaylow, Low 5 day low}
set{a1, Close / fivedaylow }
set{a2, a1*100}
set{percentincrease, a2 - 100}

percentincrease greater than 200
and Volume above 100000
and Close below 20
and Close above 1

It's pretty easy to modify to any % increase above the 5-day low (or 3-day or 7 day or whatever you want to make it) that you want.

TimothySykes - LiveStock On Demand

Fri, 28 Nov 2008 10:11:13

In case you missed the show earlier today, here it is on demand:

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TimothySykes - 18 Hot Penny Stocks, Not To Buy You Crazy Kids, To Short…Potentially!

Fri, 28 Nov 2008 08:11:39

Sent to TIMalert subscribers early this morning, already up 15% on one of em, the winners just don’t stop..tune into LiveStock 12-1PM EST today and we’ll be talking about it… Lots...

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TimothySykes - LiveStock Today From 12-1PM EST aka Why TIM Works Harder Than Anyone Else

Fri, 28 Nov 2008 05:11:02

Tune into LiveStock live HERE from 12-1pm EST or watch it on-demand anytime after. Maybe if you apply the rules I preach, you wouldn’t be down 30-40-50% on the year like sooooooo many of you...

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YngvaiMalmsteve - Monday December 1st watchlist

Fri, 28 Nov 2008 04:11:00

Short watchlist:

PPC

Up 311% off its lows, 63% red when Dow is green, 79% red when Dow is red, near upper bollinger band, involved in lawsuit, having debt issues, cutting jobs, temporary waiver under its credit facilities ends Monday

SGLP

Up 205% off its lows, 53% red when Dow is green, 79% red when Dow is red, spiked 130% in one day, hasn't filed it's 10Q's for June 30th or September 30th and can be potentially delisted, involved in a lawsuit

XTEX

Up 87% off its lows, 75% red when Dow is green, 87% red when Dow is red, losing money, was on Cramer's sellblock on 11/20

FEED

Up 78% off its lows, 69% red when Dow is green, 82% red when Dow is red, perpetual crap company that's been a good short in the past

OCNF

Up 92% off its lows, 69% red when Dow is green, 89% red when Dow is red

Long watchlist:

DISK, HOTT, PPHM all possible breakout to new high plays

Related Stocks: HOTT

YngvaiMalmsteve - Looking for Ways to Improve my Odds More

Fri, 28 Nov 2008 04:11:00

With my limited day trades, I still feel like I'm not choosing plays where the odds are enough in my favor.

My experience with LTM today shows the risk of trying to play a stock that is strongly tied to the overall market. Yes, the Dow was headed towards red when I played LTM, but the fact is, by playing a stock tied strongly to the overall market, I'm at the complete mercy of overall market conditions.

There's a reason why many people can't beat the market. It's because it's too hard to predict what the market is going to do.

If I'm going to short a stock, I need to forget the whole "Short on DJI Red" strategy, because I'm essentially trying to predict what the whole market is going to do. The Dow can easily go from red to green at any time. Any stocks strongly tied to the Dow are going to follow suit, just like LTM did today. The Dow went from red to green, and LTM went along right with it. It doesn't even matter that LTM is a company that's set up for failure...it obviously follows the market like many stocks.

With only 3 day trades per week, I need a trade where my odds of beating the market are high. I need stocks that aren't strongly tied to the market up/down days.

Let's look at what RamtaJogi's correlation calculator says about LTM. LTM is red 84% of the time that the market is red. However, it's only red 34% of the time that the market is green. Thus, this is a stock that will move against me 2 out of 3 times if the market is headed upwards and I'm short.

I need odds better than that when I can't day trade freely. I need the most bang for my buck from my limited day trades. A stock that is not tied to the market will essentially be 50/50. Thus, I need to stick with stocks that are red around 50% (or more) of the time when the market is green.

Let's look at some of the great short plays of the past. These all look 3 months back from the day that you would've been eyeing this as a short.

KYUS (2/22 to 5/22) 52% red when Dow is green
GBR (2/22 to 5/22) 48% red when Dow is green
SIL (5/23 to 9/23) 67% red when Dow is green
COIN (10/15/07 to 1/15/08) 52% red when Dow is green
CCOW (6/26 to 9/26) 50% red when Dow is green
OPTR (8/11 to 11/11) 48% red when Dow is green

Obviously, none of these stocks were strongly tied to the Dow. They all hovered around 50% (or more) red when the Dow was green. This is exactly what you would expect from a stock that is not correlated with the market....50/50. And since these were all ridiculous run-ups, the odds for a short are very good.

So, from now on, my short watchlists are only going to include big run-up stocks (75% or more off the 5-day low) that are approximately 50% red (or more) when the Dow is green.

I'll post my Monday watchlist in my next post.

Related Stocks: KYUS, LTM

YngvaiMalmsteve - Are You F'ing Serious?

Fri, 28 Nov 2008 00:11:00

Out of the stocks from yesterday's watchlist, the one that I play is the one that doesn't do a thing.

I had added AMSC to yesterday's watchlist. I had a chance to enter around $13.60. I didn't....and it's at $12.60 as I write this.

I had also added TWB to yesterday's watchlist. I had a chance to enter in the low 4's. I didn't....and it's below $3.60 as I write this.

EMKR was on yesterdays' watchlist....hit $2.05 and is now at $1.83.

EGY was on yesterday's watchlist...didn't turn out as well....if you had perfect timing, you could've shorted around $6.40 and gotten out under $6.

The one stock that I played today? LTM. LTM was showing signs of breaking down....it had poked above $14 only to come back down. The Dow was headed for red, so I shorted 500 shares at $13.93.

LTM wouldn't crack $13.80. It came back above $14. It bounced off $14.20 and I held. It came back below $14. But it resurged again, hitting a high of $14.22. I got out there for a $150 loss :(

Now that is certainly frustrating to see the other plays on my list fail, and the one I play doesn't.

How can I improve my odds in the future? What makes LTM different from the rest?

First, LTM is more strongly correlated to the Dow than the others. LTM had a Dow red/red correlation of 84%, and a Dow Green/LTM red correlation of only 34%. Since the Dow was trading sideways, LTM pretty much followed suit, trading sideways around $14.

Now let's look at EMKR. EMKR has a Dow red/red correlation of 74%, so it's not as strongly tied to the overall market. The Dow Green/EMKR red correlation is 47%, making this a better odds play if the market happens to turn back up.

Also, remember how I mentioned a threshold of a stock being 75% off its lows, but 100% would be even better? Well, EMKR was over 100% off its lows, as was TWB. LTM was not, and neither was EGY. AMSC was the only exception.

So, from now on, I'm sticking with shorting stocks that are 100% or more off their lows. And I'm probably better off with finding one that is less strongly correlated with the Dow (under 80%), but still short on Dow red. The less I have to worry about the overall market, the better.

Related Stocks: AMSC, LTM

YngvaiMalmsteve - My Stockfetcher scans

Thu, 27 Nov 2008 13:11:00

A few of you asked me to post some of the scans I've been using. I'll start posting some here.

To start off, here's one I like to use to find big run-ups (50% or more in the last 5 days). I call it my "Supernova" filter although true supernovas are pretty rare. But a lot of good short candidates come up from this scan.

It's a pretty simple filter:

Close gained more than 50 Percent over the last 5 Days
and Volume above 90000
and Close below 20
and Close above 1

More to come at another time

TimothySykes - Holiday Instructional Trading DVD Specials Are Here!

Thu, 27 Nov 2008 10:11:44

This was the email I sent out a few days ago notifying my massive email list of some Thanksigivng specials on all my brand new instructional trading DVDs, just because I’m feeling...

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TimothySykes - I Am Truly Thankful And Appreciate Emails, Comments And Messages Like this

Thu, 27 Nov 2008 04:11:55

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Comments like this really pump me up, good or bad, definitely let me know how you think I’m doing, I love/need feedback! I got this one as a Facebook message: I...

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TimothySykes - A Great TIMalerts Winner Putting Me Up 209% In The Last 13 Months & Your Great Odds At Winning $10,000 Next Week

Wed, 26 Nov 2008 13:11:48

1. The Umoo/TIMalerts $10,000 trading challenge begins and ends next week…we have less than 100 signups so you odds of winning the grand prize of $2,500 is pretty good, not to mention the prize...

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TimothySykes - 15 Stocks I’m Looking At Short Selling, Potentially, Only Potentially

Wed, 26 Nov 2008 08:11:30

Sent to TIMalert subscribers early this morning: Again a ton of potential shorts today, setups are ripe heading into the holidays, a time known for beginner day traders to try their luck, now people...

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YngvaiMalmsteve - Watchlist for Friday November 28th

Wed, 26 Nov 2008 06:11:00

My Stockfetcher scans turned up TONS of spikes today in downtrending charts...all potential short candidates. With my limited day trades, how do I select which ones I should focus on?

I mentioned yesterday about focusing on stocks that are 75-100% off their lows in a few days. However, many stocks are up 75-100% or more off their lows. The fact is that many of these stocks are simply following the overall market and the market has bounced pretty hard off of its lows lately.

The whole reason you short a spike in a downtrending chart is because:

1. You're trading with the long-term trend
2. The company is failing, is crappy, has little business, and/or has massive debt, and it's just up on hype or no news at all.

However, many of these stocks have been in a down-trend because of the overall market, not because they're failing companies. They're just victims of overall market conditions.

That means we need to get back to the fundamentals of Timmay-style shorting....shorting crap companies.

Since it's tough to predict the overall market, we need to find stocks that are easy to predict. RamtaJogi's correlation calculator helps; you can find stocks that don't necessarily follow the market. However, even the crappy companies might follow market trends. But our odds are better with a crappy company than a solid company, which means we need to pick out the crap from all of these stocks that are simply following the market. While I'm normally a chart guy, there's just too many charts to choose from. Thus, I need to start digging into the fundamentals to increase the odds of success.

There's two crap stocks out of all of these spikers. One is LTM. LTM is 78% off its lows. They've got a pretty scathing article from Citron Research, who has a pretty good history of exposing crap companies, like FOUR and PDO. Plus, LTM is near $15, an important psychological resistance point.

The other is EMKR, which is also a crap company according to Citron. EMKR is 141% off its lows. EMKR also has a nice history of big red candles after spikes.

Those are the only two crap companies I could find. I wanted to avoid stocks in the home, banking, or financial industries as there's too many things that make those less predictable.

However, there's two more stocks that may have good short potential based on the charts. One is EGY. EGY is 71% off its lows and the chart is showing pretty solid vertical action. While not necessarily a crap company, it's poking well outside the upper bollinger band, making for good odds of falling back into it.

Another one to add to the list is FVE. Again, not necessarily a crap company, but it has a nice history of big red candles after big spikes, and it's 100% off its lows.

Thus, the watchlist is LTM, EMKR, EGY, and FVE. These are all short on Red Dow.

Related Stocks: PDO

TimothySykes - Photos & Reactions To My Vegas Trading Seminar/Expo

Wed, 26 Nov 2008 04:11:23

Just back from my ridiculously successful Vegas seminar/expo…no more big thing like that anytime soon (only one-on-one coaching session here in NYC, contact me if you’re interested). More...

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YngvaiMalmsteve - An Example of Why The Trend is Your Friend

Wed, 26 Nov 2008 01:11:00

I paper-traded today, and today was a shining example of why you don't want to fight the market.

Yesterday I had posted a list of stocks that would be good shorts on a red Dow. The Dow started off red today, and I was aggressive and shorted a bunch of stocks on that list aggressively.

However, the Dow bounced off 8300 support, and then started a strong uptrend. All of my shorts were now moving against me. I got out of them. I tried a few more later when the Dow looked like it was turning back down, but they were just pullbacks. Overall I lost $1100 of paper money fighting the market. I pretty much got murdered trying to short today.

I switched and went long. FRE, FNM, TIVO, PGNX, and GOL all met my prehit buy rules. I went long on all of them, and made over $1000 of paper money.

Today's experience seems to confirm the concept of shorting on market down days and going long on up days. An exception would be shorting stocks that have gapped up a ridiculous amount after a previous run-up, like HRP yesterday. Another exception would be stocks that have ridiculous run-ups and that don't correlate with the market like SIL.

I'm glad I wasn't trading for real today. Today also shows why, unless a stock has gapped up and is looking to "gap and crap", it's risky to short near the open or in the early morning. This is often why it's better to short in the afternoon or late morning.

If the Dow had broken below 8300 this morning, then my short list would've been a safer bet. Thus, next time I'm looking to short on a Dow red, I'll wait to make sure the Dow is truly red and it's not just profit taking at the open.

Related Stocks: FNM, FRE, SIL