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| Symbol | Sector | Return | Exposure | Trades | Last Trade | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADM | Food Products | 2.93% | n/a | 7 | 02-Apr-09 | Prior Holding |
15-Nov-08
Interactive Questionaire
Holding Rationale for ADM.
I have a request for readers of zentrader. I was thinking while the markets were tanking the other day about what stocks I’d like to build positions in should the market reach levels that even traders would become investors. So lets say the markets collapsed and you had the “once in a lifetime opportunity” to buy just one stock, which one would it be? You would be buying under the assumption that the markets hit bottom, and you would be holding for at least 1-2 of years. All you have to do is right a comment with the ticker symbol, no explanation is required. I think it would be interesting to see the different responses and we may even learn something along the way.
I’ll get us started with my pick. ADM, supermarket to the world. The world’s got to eat. So to recap, if the markets bottomed tomorrow, which one stock would you want to own at rock bottom prices to hold for a longer term frame that you normally would.
Tagged Stocks: ADM
Posted at 03:56 in Holding Rationales | Permalink | Top
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9 Comments on "Interactive Questionaire"
Posted on 15-Nov-08 11:38 by Don_Bartell
One, that there is just a longer lag time than I and most expect and gold will eventually wake up and get moving. Probably will move faster than anybody expects and most probably won't profit from it unless they were in early and sat through all this painful decline.
Two, that something out of the ordinary is going to happen. Now I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but there have been rumours about a new North American currency called the Amero. "Google it" if you haven't heard of it by now, but if the currency combination of US, Canada, and Mexico does happen, I have no idea how that would affect gold. Maybe this is one of the topics their discussing at the G20 this weekend. Who knows.
But I think Shakespeare said it best, "Something is rotten in the state of Denmark."
Posted on 15-Nov-08 12:15 by Zentrader
Posted on 15-Nov-08 14:06 by leo00o0
Gold's recent behavior has indeed been a bit of a surprise, but I can recall several times in past decades when it moved contrary to reason for months. If I'm not mistaken, when Nixon put on price controls, which long term create shortages and higher prices, the market's initial response was to drop for months.
As for conspiracy theories, I think there's always the possibility that something very big is going on that we may or may not ever learn about.
Posted on 16-Nov-08 09:27 by Don_Bartell
1. The entire world is going thru recession. Just no overt demand for gold along with adequate supply.
2. There is no inflation. Even as the govt. pumps money into the U.S. economy the debt held by consumers is too great. Consumers won't cause inflation anytime soon.
3. The U.S. dollar is holding up against foreign currencies. We are, for now, a safehaven.
4. Russia, to name one, is selling gold at an alarming rate trying to keep the ruble from imploding.
5. China is lying (as usual) about the state of their economy. They don't have 5% growth. Maybe 5%. Probably less.
6. Indian economy has tanked. Lots of big gold buyers there. Not anymore.
Pablo
Posted on 16-Nov-08 12:07 by pablo222
Pablo
Posted on 16-Nov-08 12:14 by pablo222
http://arabianmoney.net/2008/11/13/saudi-arabia-buys-35bn-of-gold-in-two-weeks/
The other wierd fact with gold is how much demand there is for physical gold. I can't figure what to make of that.
Posted on 16-Nov-08 15:02 by Zentrader
Comment removed...
Posted on 17-Nov-08 03:32 by pablo222
My prior assumption was that the market price of gold reflects current world supply vs. demand. I have changed my view. Here one has to be careful. Physical gold, held in a vault, is not effecting the price as much as speculative gold contracts. ETF's (GLD for one) don't hold bullion. They hold paper representing an interest in bullion. This makes short term speculation w/ price volatility very easy. Not a simple issue of supply and demand but rather expectation based on future supply/ demand. (Much easier to buy and sell paper then to physically move gold). . Not so sure that supply vs. demand is what we actually see when we receive the daily price quote. To quote a recent article in Seeking -Alpha: "
If one constructs the 24-hour gold and silver charts for every day during this correction, one will discover an overwhelming amount of days when gold and silver were significantly higher in futures markets in Asia, but then were sold off harshly at nearly the exact same time (within a 30 minute time frame) when London markets closed and New York markets opened. How could this have happened? Simple. The price for gold and silver that you see plastered all over financial tickers everyday is established in the paper futures markets and not in physical markets where REAL gold and silver actually exchange hands. In the futures markets, only 1% of all futures contracts are closed out with actual delivery of the physical commodity. Instead 99% of all futures contracts are closed out with the purchase of another paper contract. In the case of gold and silver, futures contracts represent digital bytes of gold and silver flying around in a paper market, not real ounces of gold and silver that exist in the physical market. Thus it is entirely possible to utilize this discrepancy to create two entirely different prices for the same commodity. In other words, if not properly regulated, futures markets provide a gateway to manufacture massively fraudulent prices non-reflective of the buying and selling volumes that are occurring in the physical markets!
Posted on 17-Nov-08 03:54 by pablo222
Posted on 17-Nov-08 08:31 by pablo222
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